ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[brunota2003]

I think what we may see is the old llc is beig left behind by the convection, while a new one is forming in the convection. It would not be the first time we've seen a storm literally spit out it's llc.

[bob rulz]

Recon has not found any west winds through the pass. It could be Bonnie has lost her LLC

And almost every single one of the obs is flagged, it could be because of land interaction. Grand Bahama is a large island so it could be interfering with the observations. I do find it strange the plane went SW instead of NE for the next part of their pass.

That isn't Grand Bahama, it's Andros Island. Grand Bahama is that northernmost island shaped like an upside-down handlebar mustache.

This certainly looks to have rapidly increased in organization. I'd be surprised if recon doesn't find higher winds but so far so not good for Bonnie. Observing tropical cyclones can be very agonizing at night.

[chris1985]

This storm looks good for a 40 MP TS. Would you guys expect it to take a Westerly track, possibly wsw track once it really gets into the ridge? It's looking decent right now and i expect a bit of RI before Fla landfall.

what's your location?

[ROCK]

I don't think that turn will happen because it seems to be in the stream of the ULL.Look at which direction the clouds are moving over the peninsula SE to NW. I think that convection ball will be right on top of mainland South Florida later today.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

maybe the ULL will rip off the convection leaving a naked swirl moving west.....that would be best case scenario....

[americanre1]

I am in Florida and NEED to get back to NYC today. I have the option of flying out on flights leaving Ft. Lauderdale between 6am until 9pm. Can anyone tell me what time would be best to try for. I have not been keeping up with this storm (obviously) and have no idea exact time for landfall, etc. Any info would be greatly appreciated! thanks.

RDL to be honest with the sooner the better, because there will be more turbelance in the air the longer you wait, might not have delays from Ft. Lauderdale but for comfort I would leave earlier than later.

[americanre1]

Recon has not found any west winds through the pass. It could be Bonnie has lost her LLC

And almost every single one of the obs is flagged, it could be because of land interaction. Grand Bahama is a large island so it could be interfering with the observations. I do find it strange the plane went SW instead of NE for the next part of their pass.

That isn't Grand Bahama, it's Andros Island. Grand Bahama is that northernmost island shaped like an upside-down handlebar mustache.

This certainly looks to have rapidly increased in organization. I'd be surprised if recon doesn't find higher winds but so far so not good for Bonnie. Observing tropical cyclones can be very agonizing at night.

My bad, I don't know all the Islands of the Bahamas, I just thought that one was Grand Bahama

[supercane]

I see a nice, recent, convective burst about right overtop of the center, and I believe that may partly be responsible for the northward lift. I wouldn't be surprised to see convection wane down during the day, while clustering near/over the llc, then once it has reined in the convection and gotten more organized, the convection should redevelop deeply. Note: I'm not a promet, just a user, so take what I have to say with a grain of salt!

ad to dig all the way back to page 87 (a little after 12 pm) to find my post...it is still relevant.

We do not yet have a vortex message, but it seems that the center may not be over convection as you contend but still displaced to the SSW, and also without as much northward component as you think. (Maybe center around 23.6833N 77.85W based on first pass, but will need to see completion of the alpha pattern by recon first?)

[bob rulz]

That isn't Grand Bahama, it's Andros Island. Grand Bahama is that northernmost island shaped like an upside-down handlebar mustache.

This certainly looks to have rapidly increased in organization. I'd be surprised if recon doesn't find higher winds but so far so not good for Bonnie. Observing tropical cyclones can be very agonizing at night.

My bad, I don't know all the Islands of the Bahamas, I just thought that one was Grand Bahama

No problem, I wouldn't expect most people to know all of the islands. I'm just a geography freak is all.

That thing that almost looks like a spiral band wrapping around the southern side of the system is really throwing me and a lot of others off I think. It makes it look like a fully-formed, rapidly-intensifying system, but so far recon isn't showing anything to suggest that, and the LLC is still on the southern end of the convection. What an odd little storm.

[ROCK]

I see a nice, recent, convective burst about right overtop of the center, and I believe that may partly be responsible for the northward lift. I wouldn't be surprised to see convection wane down during the day, while clustering near/over the llc, then once it has reined in the convection and gotten more organized, the convection should redevelop deeply. Note: I'm not a promet, just a user, so take what I have to say with a grain of salt!

ad to dig all the way back to page 87 (a little after 12 pm) to find my post...it is still relevant.

We do not yet have a vortex message, but it seems that the center may not be over convection as you contend but still displaced to the SSW, and also without as much northward component as you think. (Maybe center around 23.6833N 77.85W based on first pass, but will need to see completion of the alpha pattern by recon first?)

man would I wouldnt do for some daylight and a RGB loop....right about now.....

[Bocadude85]

Long range radar is picking up a nice spin


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[CourierPR]

maybe the ULL will rip off the convection leaving a naked swirl moving west.....that would be best case scenario....[/quote] Rock, you're determined to get that west turn one way or another.

[brunota2003]

I see a nice, recent, convective burst about right overtop of the center, and I believe that may partly be responsible for the northward lift. I wouldn't be surprised to see convection wane down during the day, while clustering near/over the llc, then once it has reined in the convection and gotten more organized, the convection should redevelop deeply. Note: I'm not a promet, just a user, so take what I have to say with a grain of salt!

ad to dig all the way back to page 87 (a little after 12 pm) to find my post...it is still relevant.

We do not yet have a vortex message, but it seems that the center may not be over convection as you contend but still displaced to the SSW, and also without as much northward component as you think. (Maybe center around 23.6833N 77.85W based on first pass, but will need to see completion of the alpha pattern by recon first?)

As I said, that was posted at a little after 12 pm, when the llc was being "pulled" to the N by the convection. I still believe that the llc is on the SW side of the convection, but it may be becoming secondary if there is another developing under the convection. Other than that, though, the convection did wane during the day while consolidating near the llc, and then it has started to redevelop deeply.

[ROCK]

its tilted....the LLC is moving towards the upper keys...done turned....and I get bashed for being right....go figure...



http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

water vapor loop it and speed it up....

[brunota2003]

And we have a Vortex message...and a very pitiful one at that.

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

With this kind of setup, she will either suck the LLC into the deeper convection or she will die.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This storm looks good for a 40 MP TS. Would you guys expect it to take a Westerly track, possibly wsw track once it really gets into the ridge? It's looking decent right now and i expect a bit of RI before Fla landfall.

what's your location?

I live in the suburbs of Houston. My unlce is Davie is throwing a bday party for my younger cousin on Saturday....Not looking good

[ROCK]

With this kind of setup, she will either suck the LLC into the deeper convection or she will die.

yeah it will be a nail biter for sure....CMC opens her up right off the bat in the last run....model guidance was pretty blah to as far as intensity...

[supercane]

Vortex message decoded from the Google Earth recon app:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 06:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 5:55:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°46'N 77°50'W (23.7667N 77.8333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 95 miles (153 km) to the SSW (199°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,500m (4,921ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 22kts (~ 25.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 74 nautical miles (85 statute miles) to the NW (324°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 71° at 38kts (From the ENE at ~ 43.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the NW/NNW (326°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,500m (4,921ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the northwest quadrant at 5:33:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the NNW (339°) from the flight level center

[ROCK]

This storm looks good for a 40 MP TS. Would you guys expect it to take a Westerly track, possibly wsw track once it really gets into the ridge? It's looking decent right now and i expect a bit of RI before Fla landfall.

what's your location?

I live in the suburbs of Houston. My unlce is Davie is throwing a bday party for my younger cousin on Saturday....Not looking good

what the Bday party or the weather? I wouldnt sweat it.....there are going to be bigger fish to fry in a few weeks.....