ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[SouthFloridawx]

I personally... would definitely go. However, if you are looking for a tan...[/quote]
just dont get caught in the Rip currents. there supposed to be strong tomorrow. I dont think youll need sun screen though... [/quote]

I'll bring a flotation device...

[somethingfunny]

This just does not compute in my head. Something like that SHOULD NOT BE THERE without a LLC.

And yet I can't recall seeing a storm develop in such a crowded upper level environment as it is for Bonnie. It really shouldn't be there at all, but it is....unless it's just a product of divergence and the transient LLC is dead....in which case Bonnie would poof soon....

....Or there's a new LLC working its' way down from the MLC which is under the center of the convection and moving west off of Andros Island. Maybe once it gets clear of Andros within the next few hours, that circulation will reach the surface and pressures will start falling again.

I think that the second scenario is more likely. It just looks too organized to be a transient feature destined to poof away shortly. I think Bonnie is for real, I just can't think of any analogs for this system.

I think it's time for me to go to bed.

[fci]

The movement for 11 PM to 2 AM was WNW.
But... if the center is consistently reforming, then a 3 hour change is pretty irrelevant.
All I know is it looks like the major convection is more headed to the Peninsula than the Florida Straits.
If the center is at the SSW corner of the convection then being 20 miles south might be dry while 100 miles north may be very wet.
At the speed it is moving, I may sleep through it and wake up after whatever storminess there is has passed!

[ROCK]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes


whatever it is... its going west in a hurry...nice strong feeder bands going through FL..

[Ivanhater]

I agree with somethingfunny, Something is going on in the ball of convection.

[fci]

From the satellite shot, that is one impressive, nasty looking ball of convection.
Looks must be deceiving since the winds are not reported to have increased and pressure has not fallen.
Still looks real ominous to this very amatuerish pair of eyes.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=amx&loop=yes
whatever it is... its going west in a hurry...nice strong feeder bands going through FL..

I'm sorry. I am being polite, but I don't see any evidence that shows this system is moving westward.

[brunota2003]

Recon just found some low 40 knot winds at flight level, and that was outside of the convection, so it appears Bonnie is still a 40 mph TS at least.

[SFLcane]

Yep...and the whole convective mass is headed right for SFL.

[SouthFloridawx]

No one is posting recon? Where do you find the obs?

[Ivanhater]

I mean there is a huge feeder band to the SE, it might just be in a transition period, but who knows.

[brunota2003]

No one is posting recon? Where do you find the obs?

You can find them on the NHC site under recon, or I think there is a Recon page here on S2K? I'm not sure. I just have it up on Google Earth and am looking at it every so often.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml

There is one way, there are others, but I am not sure what they are.

[SouthFloridawx]

Where are you judging the westward movement from?

[SFLcane]

Where are you judging the westward movement from?

@ best WNW. It's on a NW heading @ 16mph per the 2am from tpc

[brunota2003]

Recon inbound again...we'll get another fix here shortly.

Latest:

[Ivanhater]

Still firing hot towers, but becoming stretched out

[brunota2003]

Dropsonde measured a pressure of 1010 mb, with 36 knot winds on the surface (dropped it on the way in)

[brunota2003]

Well, I guess they still haven't gotten to the center...this thing must be booking! (Or it dissipated)

A side note...in less than 2 hours (roughly 5:45 UTC to 7:30 UTC), in the spot where they crossed over, the winds shifted over 90 degrees!

[baitism]

Ironically, when I looked at the radar presentation (minus the eye) and location of Bonnie it reminded me of Andrew.

[brunota2003]

Found the wind shift (I guess it could be classified as that). The minimum pressure was 1007.1 millibars, but that was one ob set before the wind shift.