ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[floridasun78]

when i was kid a weather balloon fell in my backyard i remember tell my mom look i have weather balloon this was hialeah so want from gable to hialeah that was at old nhc

[brunota2003]

If this does survive and has A closed Low, Could someone explain this to me?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/
Why RIGHT next to the coast is TS Warnings but land, there is nothing?

Try looking further south

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/

The TS winds shouldn't go any further north that the current tropical storm warnings.

Looking for east winds on the next set of obs...if there is a circulation in the convection.

[ravyrn]

DISCLAIMER: This is my personal opinion. And in no way an official forecast.

Hmmm, based on the recon, regardless of Bonnie's lack of organization, this could certainly cause some power outages for Broward and Miami-Dade. Luckily this lady is trucking it, so hopefully precipitation totals should be minimal.

[Cuber]

Personal observation in Northern Palm Beach County ... a bit breezier this morning ... no rain overnight (guess I'll run the sprinklers afterall) ... a pink sky this morning amidst broken clouds .... someone tell the boats working the oil spill to turn around and go back to work.

[Florida1118]

Personal observation in Northern Palm Beach County ... a bit breezier this morning ... no rain overnight (guess I'll run the sprinklers afterall) ... a pink sky this morning amidst broken clouds .... someone tell the boats working the oil spill to turn around and go back to work.

you do realize its not there yet? Don't waste water with sprinklers!

[tolakram]

First visible soon.

Nighttime visible (enhanced shortwave)



Looks like some better inflow getting established to the south of Bonnie, LLC might be exposed ... if there is one. Canadian has done a good job with the short term, showing Bonnie may brush southwest Florida.

[floridasun78]

here by airport we got rain band round 6:20am so here come rain

[brunota2003]

Recon is in the process of closing off a LLC. This is it right here, they are getting ready to head south just off the coast of FL. So far they've got SSW through E winds.

[hiflyer]

Given the speed of advance and time of day I don't think the Gulf Stream warm current will make that much of a difference being just after sunrise here...will juice it up some but without a lot of sun this early it will not be like we saw it do to past storms.

Update..at 0715edt looks like KMIA will be close to the center of the greatest concentration of weather.
2010/07/23 10:53 KMIA 231053Z 05006KT 8SM BKN022 BKN040 BKN120 OVC200 28/24 A2992 RMK AO2 RAB21E30 SLP131 CB DSNT E-SE P0000 T02780244

[Nimbus]

Doesn't look like much more than gusty squalls for south Florida on radar.
Now we need to start focusing on the gulf coast landfall. That ULL was originally forecast to stall further north so I'm not sure it is going to roll west all the way to Mexico. AFM said upper air convergence should inhibit development till we start seeing some high pressure build over the system.

[Vortmax1]

It looks like the TUTT won't stall and will continue West.
This is from the Houston discussion:


AFTER A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...SOME ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE EAST BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AREA EVENTUALLY
GETS POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TUTT LOW.

[tolakram]

First visible this morning.

[tolakram]

30 frame water vapor loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

King Tutt!

[brunota2003]

Here is the last image from this Recon flight, they are heading home. They did finally close off a circulation and released a VDM:

[HURAKAN]

No wind here, very quiet, but already over an inch of rain

[tolakram]

LLC fairly well under the convection, interesting.

From a few hours ago:

[HURAKAN]

Visible

[HURRICANELONNY]

Only thing that worries me. Is the track of little Bonnie. Is this a precursor to this years systems? I always said a cool summer in the NE means alot of fishes. A above normal NE. Look out. Another heat wave this weekend for the NE.

[Chacor]

Fairly small storm. Yellows on the colour IR, meaning cloud tops colder than -80°C.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well luckily it looks like Bonnie never ramped up overnight as feared. Instead, it looks like south Florida will only have to deal with a minimal tropical storm out of this. Enough for a windy, wet, nasty morning/afternoon, but probably not enough to cause any serious problems. Bonnie has also become a very small storm throughout her organization process, so serious effects well away from the center look to be limited..though increased moisture and the squeeze between the high to the north and the low to the south (Bonnie) could still cause a breezier and wetter-than normal afternoon across parts of central Florida.