ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Recurve]

Light showers passing quickly in Key Largo. Clouds racing in from the northeast. winds calm. Molasses Reef showing 19kt NE winds. So glad Bonnie is moving fast and didn't intensify over the Gulf Stream. Whew. we dodged a bullet cause the center is going to pass about 20 miles south of my position it looks like from plotting the forecast points on Google Earth.

[jasons2k]

First glance of the day...and looking at my GrLevel3 from Miami...

And is it me, or does it look like Bonnie is "booking it" fast towards Miami?? Am I seeing that correctly?

[HURAKAN]

latest ... heavy rains now

[Gustywind]

Well luckily it looks like Bonnie never ramped up overnight as feared. Instead, it looks like south Florida will only have to deal with a minimal tropical storm out of this. Enough for a windy, wet, nasty morning/afternoon, but probably not enough to cause any serious problems. Bonnie has also become a very small storm throughout her organization process, so serious effects well away from the center look to be limited..though increased moisture and the squeeze between the high to the north and the low to the south (Bonnie) could still cause a breezier and wetter-than normal afternoon across parts of central Florida.

So good news for you in the not so bad at all hopefully . Glad to see that. Best thoughts from the Lesser Antilles.
Gustywind

[Frank P]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

radar presentation also hints of two rotations, one approaching the tip of Fl south of Key Largo and the other heading south of Miami.. stacking problem? or just a radar illusion?

[TheBurn]

[tolakram]

Just an illusion, I think. Very weak echos on the south side, but you can almost make out a complete circle of convection.

[hiflyer]

First glance of the day...and looking at my GrLevel3 from Miami...

And is it me, or does it look like Bonnie is "booking it" fast towards Miami?? Am I seeing that correctly?

Per radar the 'leading edge' came ashore about 0715 near KMIA. Had one clap of thunder about an hour ago up here in Weston and some showers...not much wind. METAR's support that this is a 'soft landing'
2010/07/23 11:55 KHST 231155Z AUTO 03012KT 10SM -DZ FEW019 SCT036 27/25 A2990 RMK AO2 DZB1144 SLP128 P0000 60019 70019 T02730248 10285 20251 58001
2010/07/23 11:53 KMIA 231153Z 04011G17KT 5SM -RA BR BKN019 BKN065 OVC140 27/25 A2992 RMK AO2 RAB11 SLP130 P0006 60035 70039 T02720250 10289 20256 58000
2010/07/23 11:53 KFLL 231153Z 06016G23KT 10SM FEW022 BKN045 BKN080 28/25 A2991 RMK AO2 PK WND 07029/1106 RAB09E31 SLP128 P0000 60000 T02780250 10289 20267 50001
2010/07/23 11:53 KPBI 231153Z 07016G22KT 10SM -RA SCT022 BKN030CB OVC130 28/24 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB06 SLP141 CB OHD AND ALQDS MOV W TCU ALQDS P0000 60008 70008 T02830239 10294 20278 51007

[Vortmax1]

I'm up the coast in the Stuart/Martin County area.
Just a couple of fast moving showers overnight. No rain yet since daylight.
Mostly cloudy, nice breeze and not as warm.
I'll take it!

[Frank2]

Wow - look at that LARGE ULL over the GOM:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

and, as some of us happened to notice yesterday afternoon, a TUTT-like feature was dropping SW behind Bonnie and is shoving it along to the west this morning (kind of like when Lucy is shoving Charlie Brown - lol), so, not the best of environs for Bonnie...

We are thankful it's going to be not much more than a wet and breezy day down here in South Florida, and hopefully it'll be the same for the folks along the Gulf Coast...

[AdamFirst]

I kind of can't believe it's just arriving now.


I woke up just in time

[jlauderdal]

First glance of the day...and looking at my GrLevel3 from Miami...

And is it me, or does it look like Bonnie is "booking it" fast towards Miami?? Am I seeing that correctly?

Per radar the 'leading edge' came ashore about 0715 near KMIA. Had one clap of thunder about an hour ago up here in Weston and some showers...not much wind. METAR's support that this is a 'soft landing'
2010/07/23 11:55 KHST 231155Z AUTO 03012KT 10SM -DZ FEW019 SCT036 27/25 A2990 RMK AO2 DZB1144 SLP128 P0000 60019 70019 T02730248 10285 20251 58001
2010/07/23 11:53 KMIA 231153Z 04011G17KT 5SM -RA BR BKN019 BKN065 OVC140 27/25 A2992 RMK AO2 RAB11 SLP130 P0006 60035 70039 T02720250 10289 20256 58000
2010/07/23 11:53 KFLL 231153Z 06016G23KT 10SM FEW022 BKN045 BKN080 28/25 A2991 RMK AO2 PK WND 07029/1106 RAB09E31 SLP128 P0000 60000 T02780250 10289 20267 50001
2010/07/23 11:53 KPBI 231153Z 07016G22KT 10SM -RA SCT022 BKN030CB OVC130 28/24 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB06 SLP141 CB OHD AND ALQDS MOV W TCU ALQDS P0000 60008 70008 T02830239 10294 20278 51007

NHC might be able to take a walk outside and wacth the "eye" go overhead, my through the straits forecast from 4 days ago was a bust, oh well, my track error was not bad though, if it goes over my house i will be sure to post the pressure from my weather station, im looking for say 950mb or so..

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KFLFORTL14


channel 7 has a guy on key west, weather is looking very nice

[jlauderdal]

I kind of can't believe it's just arriving now.


I woke up just in time

center almost made it up your way, alot closer than we thought it would 36 hours ago, enjoy the rain

[Vortmax1]

Yes, the TUTT's have been kind to a lot of us.
Hopefully they will stay in tandem with Bonnie and continue to hinder any strengthening on the trip in the Gulf.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST FRI JUL 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW N OF PR WILL RETROGRESS TO THE BAHAMAS BY
SAT WHILE SECOND TUTT LOW EAST OF 60W WILL SHEAR THROUGH SUN.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT. MID-UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FOR SUN-MON WITH A TUTT AXIS FCST TO
STRETCH ACROSS THE ISLANDS TUE-THU.

ASIDE FROM TS BONNIE NEAR THE BAHAMAS...TROP ATLC VERY QUIET AND
MJO PROGNOSIS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STRONG DOWNWARD PHASE ACROSS
THE WRN HEMISPHERE OVR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS POSSIBLY LASTING
THROUGH THE THIRD WEEK OF AUGUST AS MJO SIGNAL CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE MARITIME CONTINENT/WRN PACIFIC.

[Frank2]

Yep, a multi-layered sky this morning - some nice colors of gray, gold and even some shades of blue, and fast moving low clouds, a sure sign of something to our east...

P.S. It's become very dark to our east in the past few minutes - a heavy rainsquall soon to pass overhead, for sure...

[HURAKAN]

Frank, that looks like Ike's ghost!!!

[HouTXmetro]

this system is so confusing. I see weak turning skirting just north of the cuban coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

[ronjon]

The center appears to be tightening up as it approches land. i wonder if we will see a nice center feature as it traverses the everglades due to frictional forces. A very small storm.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=AMX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

[AdamFirst]

I kind of can't believe it's just arriving now.


I woke up just in time

center almost made it up your way, alot closer than we thought it would 36 hours ago, enjoy the rain

My pops has to make his way down 95 or the Turnpike to Coral Gables...I told him no matter which way he goes it's gonna be nasty on the roads

[bbadon]

Off Topic: Can every one take a peak at 20 70 and comment in talking tropics. Remember the 1 2 punch?