ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[TampaFl]

8:00AM postion. Mao courtesy http://www.BoatUS.com

[Sanibel]

Cool. We were right last night about Bonnie clipping south Florida. Should pass very close to us later tonight.


I think 2004 started with a weak struggling Bonnie not too far from this location in the last week of July.


Overcast with low level raggy storm cloud puffs in circulation. Light blustery breezes.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like Bonnies coc is heading right for Miami

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

No, it doesn't. The center is on the south side of that convection heading more toward Key Largo.

[hiflyer]

Got a broad circ about 24.9/79.4 using Storm Relative Velocity on GRLevel3...just came off the shelf of the Bahamas and into the Gulf Stream warm current. Pretty flat and wet ahead of it crossing the state once it gets away from the coast. It will be interesting to watch as it get's into the gulf...I do not expect a normal development because of the oil in the water could very well hinder evap and therefore intensity from surface moisture....but then again I did not stay at a Holiday Inn last night....

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Sanibel]

Good thing the ULL is there and this isn't late August instead of July because that is a Labor Day track and size.

[tgenius]

Looks like some popping in convection offshore.. maybe we will get a bit stronger rain than I originally thought

[hurricaneCW]

Yes, the TUTT's have been kind to a lot of us.
Hopefully they will stay in tandem with Bonnie and continue to hinder any strengthening on the trip in the Gulf.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST FRI JUL 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW N OF PR WILL RETROGRESS TO THE BAHAMAS BY
SAT WHILE SECOND TUTT LOW EAST OF 60W WILL SHEAR THROUGH SUN.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT. MID-UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FOR SUN-MON WITH A TUTT AXIS FCST TO
STRETCH ACROSS THE ISLANDS TUE-THU.

ASIDE FROM TS BONNIE NEAR THE BAHAMAS...TROP ATLC VERY QUIET AND
MJO PROGNOSIS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STRONG DOWNWARD PHASE ACROSS
THE WRN HEMISPHERE OVR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS POSSIBLY LASTING
THROUGH THE THIRD WEEK OF AUGUST AS MJO SIGNAL CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE MARITIME CONTINENT/WRN PACIFIC.

So according to this, Bonnie won't strengthen much if at all and August could be a quiet month?

[Frank2]

Far out - I knew that TUTT was not just my imagination (LOL)!!!

P.S. That's very interesting reading - one of the pro mets here also mentioned that the MJO has been "stuck" in the Indian Ocean for a number of weeks - perhaps I'm wrong, but I've never heard of such a thing happening, not in recent years, anyway...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[TheBurn]

[jlauderdal]

Got a broad circ about 24.9/79.4 using Storm Relative Velocity on GRLevel3...just came off the shelf of the Bahamas and into the Gulf Stream warm current. Pretty flat and wet ahead of it crossing the state once it gets away from the coast. It will be interesting to watch as it get's into the gulf...I do not expect a normal development because of the oil in the water could very well hinder evap and therefore intensity from surface moisture....but then again I did not stay at a Holiday Inn last night....

[AdamFirst]

Convection doesn't seem to be backbuilding....this may be over earlier than we thought for Miami.

[Frank2]

Kind of has that Andrew appearance (shape) to it (ugh) on the IR - 18 years ago this coming August 24...

[Frank2]

Well, have a good day, everyone (keep the umbrella right side out)...

Frank

[Sanibel]

Hardly the size of a good thunderstorm. Just managing to exist on the edge of the ULL and the TUTT to its east. This track would have been a disaster with a bigger storm in 5 weeks.

[rockyman]

Looking at a 1 1/2 hour radar loop (GR3), it looks like the center is reforming or consolidating to the ESE of Miami...heading right toward the southern end of Biscayne Bay. There are a few storms moving west to east NORTH of the NHC's most recent fix.

[Vortmax1]

the MJO has been "stuck" in the Indian Ocean for a number of weeks - perhaps I'm wrong, but I've never heard of such a thing happening, not in recent years, anyway...

It is odd Frank. I have seen the HPC forecasters going back and forth about what the MJO phase will be for a few weeks now. I guess we'll know when we know.

[tigergirl]

Good morning from South Lafourhce in Louisiana!!

Hope Bonnie stays disorganized before she heads my way....even better if she stays to the east of the Mississippi River!

[jlauderdal]

This thread certainly died.

looks like the brunt will be through sofla by 11, surprised there hasn't been more a of a breeze today