ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Vortmax1]

Bonnie's crossing

Is that like a bonnie hop? LOL

Thanks for the animation Hurakan.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[poof121]

Looks like the LLC is now starting to refire convection now that its back over water.

[ObsessedMiami]

Phil Ferro of WSVN in Miami quickly recapped Bonnie @ 4pm then moved on to a wave off Puerto Rico (Exact same set-up as Bonnie, he said) which "should be here by Saturday night" and then another wave right behind it over the Antilles. What is he talking about?

[petit_bois]

Marine forcast for Mobile Bay...

TONIGHT
EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTH LATE. BAY WATERS
SMOOTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING EAST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. BAY WATERS ROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORM TIDES RISING TO 4 TO 5
FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WINDS
30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BAY WATERS VERY ROUGH. SHOWERS LIKELY
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STORM TIDES 3 TO 4 FEET.

[Vortmax1]

Those ADDS satellite views are awesomely clear and beautiful Hurakan!

[Nimbus]

Looks like an exposed LLC out over the gulf again. Having an upper level low travel that far in just the right orientation to blow Bonnie apart for four days straight definitely defies the odds. I wonder if in 50 years they will be able to predict the upper air patterns better? From what I have read even using chaos theory these upper air patterns move around with a lot of random motion. It is sort of like watching the numbered ping pong balls get blown around in the lottery machine.

[expat2carib]

Phil Ferro of WSVN in Miami quickly recapped Bonnie @ 4pm then moved on to a wave off Puerto Rico (Exact same set-up as Bonnie, he said) which "should be here by Saturday night" and then another wave right behind it over the Antilles. What is he talking about?

Isn't this the JB scenario... he talked about in his video -2 days ago- about this system?

[HURAKAN]

Another nice pic!

[Vortmax1]

"should be here by Saturday night"

It should be where?
Miami??

[ConvergenceZone]

Even though WXMAN mentioned it becomming a hurricane, he was also one of the first to mention that the system was a mess yesterday when many others were saying that it wasn't..Kudos to Wxman!

[smw1981]

Phil Ferro of WSVN in Miami quickly recapped Bonnie @ 4pm then moved on to a wave off Puerto Rico (Exact same set-up as Bonnie, he said) which "should be here by Saturday night" and then another wave right behind it over the Antilles. What is he talking about?

Isn't this the JB scenario... he talked about in his video -2 days ago- about this system?

I believe it is, and another met (can't remember which one) also discussed this scenario. They were calling it the double punch and the 1,2 punch. However, RIGHT NOW, there isn't even a code on either one of these waves, so I guess we will have to see what happens in the next 24-48 hours with both of them..

[smw1981]

"should be here by Saturday night"

It should be where?
Miami??

That was Mobile, AL's marine weather statement..

[TheBurn]

Weather Channel just said it's downgraded to TD.

[x-y-no]

He said it will probably be a Cat.1 or Cat. 2. I am pretty sure that means he predicted a Cat. 1 or Cat.2 at the panhandle. Which is exactly what I said

you wrote:

Nope, Wxman did predict a Cat. 2 to the Florida Panhandle at first

(emphasis mine)

Now, perhaps those things mean the same. That is if "probably" and "Cat 1" and "or" all mean nothing at all.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hehe, at least now I can get something done this weekend, as opposed to being being addicted to this board.....

[expat2carib]

He said it will probably be a Cat.1 or Cat. 2. I am pretty sure that means he predicted a Cat. 1 or Cat.2 at the panhandle. Which is exactly what I said

you wrote:

Nope, Wxman did predict a Cat. 2 to the Florida Panhandle at first

(emphasis mine)

Now, perhaps those things mean the same. That is if "probably" and "Cat 1" and "or" all mean nothing at all.

Even the NHC was 30% wrong on Tuesday when they gave 97L a 70% chance of becoming a TC within 48 hours.

Come on people forecasting is not a math science

[StormClouds63]

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 81.9W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[TeamPlayersBlue]

i think we are fairly lucky that the ULL is disrupting this storm. It looks fairly organized for a weak TD or TS.

And to the post above, I think JB did predict that. He said their was another wave in the Gulf 168 out.

[StormClouds63]

Avila must be working some long hours this week.

WS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
THE CENTER IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF SHAPELESS DEEP
CONVECTION. GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING MAINLY DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH BRING THE WINDS UP A
LITTLE BIT...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS BONNIE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. BASED ON CONTINUITY AND THE STATISTICAL
MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
BEFORE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS