ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[RL3AO]

Cloud tops continue to warm ... However, I think NHC may just play it safe and keep it as a named TD until landfall, although it's looking more just like an open wave or trough at the moment.

If it doesn't meet the criteria of a tropical cyclone, I don't think they will continue to classify it as such.

Yeah they will. They would have to drop the warnings other wise and its still forecasted to be a TS at landfall, so unless it totally dissipates, it will remain a TC.

[RL3AO]

That single thunderstorm is still intensifying. Its not much, but the dynamics are totally dead out there yet.

[lonelymike]

Looking like Bonnie might get ripped apart this evening. Not sure it can survive the eastern side of that upper low. Notice that all the heavy convection has shifted to the northwest side of what's left of the LLC. Strong SE winds aloft will do that.

Yup, guess she won't get to be a Cat 2 like you predicted. Good forecasting forecaster.

Bashing a pro met...will wonders ever cease

On a more serious note better thank that ULL or wxman57's thoughts about a Cat 1 or 2 might have come to pass.

[Ivanhater]

Alright, back on topic.

There is a thunderstorm around the center that is growing. Might be the beginning of a new burst but well see soon enough.

[MWatkins]

Looking like Bonnie might get ripped apart this evening. Not sure it can survive the eastern side of that upper low. Notice that all the heavy convection has shifted to the northwest side of what's left of the LLC. Strong SE winds aloft will do that.

Yup, guess she won't get to be a Cat 2 like you predicted. Good forecasting forecaster.

Bashing a pro met...will wonders ever cease

On a more serious note better thank that ULL or wxman57's thoughts about a Cat 1 or 2 might have come to pass.

When a storm falls apart unexpectedly, I have noticed over the years that some folks want to take it out on someone, even if the forecast was well reasoned and the best given the information at the time.

It's kind of like blaming your dad because there's no santa. It's not dad's fault, but it's convenient.

MW

[RL3AO]

If Bonnie is going to hold on, it needs to regenerate some deep convection and soon.


MW

It is. Its not much, but its there.

[Ivanhater]

Noticeable on radar as well

[Pearl River]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Is it me or does the ULL look like it's moving off to the NW somewhat quick and the east side where the dry air is, starting to moisten up? It could just be me!

[Ivanhater]

[tolakram]

Wait, there's no Santa?



Bonnie is not the fat lady singing ... yet.

[lonelymike]

Looks pathetic on radar

[redfish1]

from radar it looks to be moving west...could someone take a look at it and tell me what you think...thank you

[RL3AO]

[Ivanhater]

She's bursting again, just depends how long it lasts

[Hurricane Andrew]

Dirunal max is at night time with TCs so, this might redevelop.

[dixiebreeze]

Just a thought -- I've been a member of Storm2K almost before it was Storm2K and I wish I had a nickel for every time a poster said a system was kaput and hours or a day later it bloomed anew.

Bonnie probably is toast for the most part, but I wouldn't ignore her yet.

[Raininfyr]

Got to give Bonnie an A for effort. She has been pretty tenacious, still a tiny little swirl out there. Our local met just did a great job of explaining and showing why he thought Bonnie would not strengthen back to Tropical Storm force winds. He says it is caught between the ridge and ULL, elongated, with no place to go and getting sheared to death. He says that the NHC is saying it may come back to life tomorrow afternoon, and that they would continue to monitor the situation, but, he felt better about the situation. Posters have been saying this for days. It has been great listening to all the different posts and opinions, but, it is up to us in the end to do our homework and stay alert and take heed to the Pro Mets too whether on this board, or our local Pro Met. This is a wonderful site for someone truly wanting to learn. I appreciate it a lot.

[Over my head]

I'm thankful for those of you who reamed a new one for the poster who dissed Wxman57. If you hadn't I woulda.
To me wxman57's like E F Hutton...When he speaks... I listen.

Sorry Ivan I was not finished reading and being furious when you posted the back to topic order and have to put in my two cents. I'll never defy your authority again.

[expat2carib]

Phil Ferro of WSVN in Miami quickly recapped Bonnie @ 4pm then moved on to a wave off Puerto Rico (Exact same set-up as Bonnie, he said) which "should be here by Saturday night" and then another wave right behind it over the Antilles. What is he talking about?

Isn't this the JB scenario... he talked about in his video -2 days ago- about this system?

I believe it is, and another met (can't remember which one) also discussed this scenario. They were calling it the double punch and the 1,2 punch. However, RIGHT NOW, there isn't even a code on either one of these waves, so I guess we will have to see what happens in the next 24-48 hours with both of them..

Here is the video http://www.accuweather.com/video/180330229001/tropical-trouble-maker-for-florida.asp?channel=vbbastaj

[HURAKAN]

Bonnie