Global model runs discussion

[StormClouds63]

A little piece taken from Thursday's (7/15) Lake Charles NWS discussion. Appears even if GFS confirms, we'd have another Mexico-bound disturbance.

THERE MAY BE A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE SOUTH BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS COMING TUESDAY IF THE GFS MODEL IS CORRECT...BUT IF THIS COMES TO PASS...WOULD BE DIRECTED INTO MEXICO DUE TO A FAIRLY PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

[KWT]

Interesting to see the models are having a pattern now where we have the Gulf states somewhat shielded by an upper high but its when it shifts about that the gulf coasts come under greater threat.

ECM doesn't have anything of note though there is a wave (probably the one at 35W) that comes through the Bahamas in 144hrs.

[Blown Away]

Interesting to see the models are having a pattern now where we have the Gulf states somewhat shielded by an upper high but its when it shifts about that the gulf coasts come under greater threat.

ECM doesn't have anything of note though there is a wave (probably the one at 35W) that comes through the Bahamas in 144hrs.

Seems that high has put stakes in the ground and is protecting the NW GOM. Where is the weakness along the SE Coast?? Recurves off Florida or recurves into NW GOM??

[KWT]

You want a long term model run, this is 00z Weds forecast from the CMC:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten ... 0_1400.gif

Both the main lows are TCs...

Well I did say it was long range

[OuterBanker]

LOL, KWT. Is that an Aug 12 run, geeze I didn't know the CMC went that far out.

And isn't that tropical system 141 and 142 of the CMC this year?

[KWT]

Ah its the CFS, its like a super long range version of the GFS.

Not to be taken seriously, though it has shown a big storm developing around the same time on the last several runs as well...

[Blown Away]

I see rotation with limited convection in the area of 12N/37W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Macrocane]

Outerbanker it seems that you have the double post problem again

[blp]

Ah its the CFS, its like a super long range version of the GFS.

Not to be taken seriously, though it has shown a big storm developing around the same time on the last several runs as well...

No kidding KWT, I counted 7 storms developing on that run by August 28th and that would make the development happy CMC jealous.

[KWT]

The 0z ECM shows a fairly decent wave coming off Africa in 216hrs...but other than the SW Caribbean/BoC system, we are in the clear.

The Azores High looks too strong still right now which is allowing plenty of SAL to still come off Africa.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF continues to show a strong wave in the Eastern Atlantic between 7-10 days.

[gatorcane]

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Let's face it, there just really isn't much model support for anything at the moment, and it's been like this ever since Alex, really. Before Alex, there was pretty much nothing for most of June. Yeah the wet-phase of the MJO is currently passing through the Caribbean at the moment, but development chances just aren't that high, just your usual stuff for mid-July. I took a look at the MJO forecast for the next couple of weeks and it looks like we are going to enter a dry period across much of the Caribbean. Given the high SAL across most of the MDR, and the fact that development in the MDR just isn't that likely this time of year (no matter how high the SST content), we may go through the rest of July with no named systems, though I can't rule out 1 system maybe, but probably towards the last few days of the month sometime (similar to what happened in June with Alex forming towards the end).

Certainly, you have to wonder if the high-end range for the NHC prediction is really going to happen at this point? That said, Aug-Oct could certainly ramp up and crank out alot of systems quickly, just a little less than 2 weeks before climatologically things get going. Now if we are at Aug. 16th, one month from now, with not much to talk about, you REALLY have to wonder about the predictions for a hyper-active season.

[Scorpion]

I don't think anything of significance will occur for another month. Then it will be pretty much nonstop, and we will still get 15-16 NS

[HurricaneRobert]

2006 had a similar number of predicted storms (17 storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 majors), but our friend SAL made sure it was a much lower number. Maybe SAL will stay put this season? It's pretty strong, but the wave train is very low.

[KWT]

It weren't the SAL that was the issue in 2006, it was the developing El nino, thats not gonna be an issue this season at all...the forecasting agencies just didn't see the El Nino for whatever reason, hence the huge bust.

1998 and 1999 were both hyperactive seasons and both went through mid August with only 1 storm...so plenty of time yet...

ECM has a wave coming off Africa in 7-10 days time that looks decent enough.

[Wx_Warrior]

Long range 12z EURO

[hurricanetrack]

That's nice to see 1020 mb pressures down to just about 20N at the end of July. Lots of hurricanes will form with pressures like that (insert sarcasm right here).

[Florida1118]

there taking their time with the TWO....maybe something coming on it.

[Florida1118]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY IS PRODUCING VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is the 18z Para GFS and WAY out there, but did anyone else happen to glimpse the hurricane it is depicting in the very long range?

HR 252: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_252l.gif

HR 276: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_276l.gif

HR 300: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_300l.gif

HR 324: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_324l.gif

HR 348: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_348l.gif

HR 372: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_372l.gif

HR 384: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_384l.gif

Hopefully this is not a sign of things to come next month..