ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

Weather Watcher · #3061 Postby **Weather Watcher** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 1:58 am

Stormcenter wrote:IMO I think it's safe to say she's on her way to being a TS again.

I have to agree!

#3062 Postby **Frank P** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:02 am

Weather Watcher wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:IMO I think it's safe to say she's on her way to being a TS again.

I have to agree!

This IR loop shows the LLC and the convection to the NW ... I think we might just have a case for upgrade to TS, provided of course it does not go poof in the next couple of hours... my opinion of course

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

and looks to me to be heading towards the mouth of the MS river.. maybe a tad east of there.

jenmrk · #3063 Postby **jenmrk** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:03 am

I normally don't post,but I have to asK. Is this thing getting bigger right before our eyes? It just looks like it is growing, sorry have to ask.

poof121 · #3064 Postby **poof121** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:04 am

Frank P wrote:
Weather Watcher wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:IMO I think it's safe to say she's on her way to being a TS again.

I have to agree!

This IR loop shows the LLC and the convection to the NW ... I think we might just have a case for upgrade to TS, provided of course it does not go poof in the next couple of hours... my opinion of course

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

Gee, people go to bed hearing it fell apart, now they going to wake up to a strengthening storm... the GOM strikes again...

TwisterFanatic · #3065 Postby **TwisterFanatic** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:05 am

Woah! I leave thinking this thing was dead. Then it goes all Boom on us. :lol:

#3066 Postby **Frank P** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:05 am

the convection is developing to the northwest of the center, which is the result of the big upper air low shearing the storms off in that direction... my opinion.. now if all these storms would be directly over the center, it would be a much different story.. its your typical sheared TD/TS system.. this is how they usually look...

xcool22 · #3067 Postby **xcool22** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:07 am

i think she ts imo

#3068 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:08 am

With the LLC on the SE side of convection I'm thinking MS/AL line, but that's all relative with no radar.

poof121 · #3069 Postby **poof121** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:09 am

Okay, what is that ULL doing... the edge of it moving north onshore, but it seems the center isn't moving at all...

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=mult_big&itype=wv

#3070 Postby **Frank P** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:12 am

Yeah Ivan, somewhere on the MS coast most likely, and looks like all the weather will be to the NW too... not something you see too often for an approaching tropical system on the NGOM coast..

#3071 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:12 am

I'm going with the LA./MS. stateline landfall based what I'm seeing now.

Can you imagine what this might be like if we didn't have the ULL in the GOM? :eek:

#3072 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:13 am

Frank P wrote:Yeah Ivan, somewhere on the MS coast most likely, and looks like all the weather will be to the NW too... not something you see too often for an approaching tropical system on the NGOM coast..

Yep Frank, all the weather will be ahead of landfall as well so the worst of Bonnie will be in the morning it looks like.

#3073 Postby **Frank P** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:15 am

Stormcenter wrote:I'm going with the LA./MS. stateline landfall based what I'm seeing now.

Can you imagine what this might be like if we didn't have the ULL in the GOM?

I have been doing just that SC.... we are going to be lucky with this one.. and I just hope its our only tropical koolaid for this season... have one and be done...

#3074 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:15 am

Getting out of range but this shows the LLC SE of the convection. The blow up is noted by the new "light green" that pops up to the NW of the center on radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

poof121 · #3075 Postby **poof121** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:17 am

Next recon flight on its way...

#3076 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:22 am

#3077 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:23 am

She continues to expand in size and sustaining the deep convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

jenmrk · #3078 Postby **jenmrk** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:25 am

How fast is she moving?

Janie2006 · #3079 Postby **Janie2006** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 2:38 am

Geeez, I leave you guys alone for a couple of hours and Bonnie begins rising from the dead. :lol:

I confess, she's recovered a bit more than I had anticipated. If anything I expected her to get sheared completely apart. Obviously this has not happened. A recovery of TS status is certainly possible, something I'd have been hard-pressed to say a few hours ago.

In my *unofficial* and *amateur* opinion I'd say she makes landfall near Biloxi.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #3080 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Jul 24, 2010 4:10 am

convection waning slightly but still think a ts is possible...my earlier forecast of 55 mph was probably too high though

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