Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Is this from the "new" ULL or still the tail of 97L, Bonny?

Is from a combination of the ULL and the last leg of the long tail of Bonnie.

Incredible! What an episode for the Lesser Antilles Cycloneye!

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Isolated tstorms accompanied with lightnings are spreading in Guadeloupe. Thunder is rolling too. Nothing bad but another briefs and modest episodes of rain are in store here.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another wave moving thru PR and VI today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST SAT JUL 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN ATTM WILL
MOVE ACROSS PR LATER TODAY. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH TUTT LOWS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TROP
ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE LEEWARDS EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG AXIS OF TROPICAL WAVE. A 0745Z ACARS SOUNDING FROM
SJU INDICATES 20-25 KT FLOW IN THE LOWEST 10KFT AND HIGH 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES OF 105 M^2/S^2. MID LEVEL TEMPS (500 MB) ARE QUITE
COOL AT -9C AND THE HEIGHT OF THE -20C IS AT 23KFT. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY WITH ALL
THREATS POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE RATHER RAPIDLY AND SHOULD NOT POSE A THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING.

MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUN-MON WITH A
DRYING TREND EXPECTED. A SERIES OF TUTT LOWS ARE FCST TO DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN AND TROP ATLC NEXT WEEK MAKING TC FORMATION VERY
UNLIKELY. CAN EXPECT TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FROM
TUE ON THAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY PROXIMITY OF TUTTS OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...TSTMS LIKELY THAT COULD EASILY PRODUCE 25-30KT WINDS
GIVEN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW. STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE IN DEEPER
CONVECTION ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...POTENTIALL STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND MARINERS
SHOULD BE ALERT TO STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM NWS. MAXIMUM SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

[cycloneye]

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
638 AM AST SAT JUL 24 2010

AMZ710-715-722-725-732-241430-
638 AM AST SAT JUL 24 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS...

AT 627 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SAINT CROIX AND TO LATITUDE 17 NORTH
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 30 KNOTS. BUOY 42060 ABOUT A 100 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SAINT CROIX REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 25 KNOTS AS THIS LINE MOVED
THROUGH. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
OVER CULEBRA AT 830 AM AST...
OVER CABO SAN JUAN AT 930 AM AST...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 1784 6585 1792 6569 1800 6583 1813 6585
1826 6562 1856 6562 1848 6515 1851 6482
1866 6449 1866 6424 1851 6415 1851 6404
1815 6395 1698 6399 1699 6646

$$

ROSA

[cycloneye]

2010=The year with more rain in the history of Puerto Rico

Is incredible the rainfall so far this year and is only July. A bad omen for August and September in terms of hurricane threats?

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................
PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.34          0.50 1981   0.14   0.20      T
  MONTH TO DATE    8.22                      2.97   5.25     4.61
  SINCE JUN 1     17.45                      6.49  10.96    14.98
  SINCE JAN 1     48.66                     22.95  25.71    32.08



.CLIMATE...AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT...A TOTAL OF 8.22 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN
RECORDED SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS REPRESENTS THE WETTEST START TO
JULY ON RECORD TO DATE. JULY 2010 IS NOW THE FOURTH WETTEST JULY ON
RECORD. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD IS 1961 WHEN 9.35 INCHES WERE
RECORDED. 2010 STILL ON TRACK TO BE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD. THROUGH
JULY 23RD...A TOTAL OF 48.66 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECORDED. THIS IS 5.11
INCHES MORE THAN THE NEXT CLOSEST YEAR SINCE 1958.

AT THE CYRIL E. KING ARPT IN ST. THOMAS...A TOTAL OF 7.32 INCHES
HAVE BEEN RECORDED SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS REPRESENTS THE WETTEST
START TO JULY ON RECORD. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD IS 1958 WHEN
7.41 INCHES WERE RECORDED. WITH ONLY 0.10 INCHES NEEDED TO BREAK THE
RECORD AND EIGHT DAYS STILL LEFT ON THE CALENDAR MONTH IT IS MORE
THAN LIKELY THAT JULY 2010 WILL END UP AS THE WETTEST JULY ON
RECORD. LIKE IN SAN JUAN...2010 REMAINS ON TRACK TO BE ONE OF THE
WETTEST YEARS ON RECORD. SINCE JAN 1 2010...A TOTAL OF 29.96 INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT ST. THOMAS. THIS TOTAL REPRESENTS THE
SECOND WETTEST START TO A YEAR ON RECORD ONLY BEHIND 1960 WHEN 32.99
HAD BEEN RECORDED TO DATE.

AT THE CHRISTIANSTED ARPT IN ST. CROIX THINGS HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY
AS WET AS IN SAN JUAN OR ST. THOMAS. THROUGH JULY 23RD...A TOTAL OF
3.97 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECORDED. THIS REPRESENTS THE NINTH WETTEST
START TO JULY ON RECORD. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD IS 1958 WHEN
6.34 INCHES WERE RECORDED. 2010 RANKS AS THE EIGHT WETTEST START TO
A YEAR ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 21.88 INCHES.

WHILE SEARCHING FOR THIS DATA...1958...1960 AND 1961 CAME OUT IN
SEVERAL OCASSIONS AS GOOD ANALOGS FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES WITH
1958 HAVING THE BEST ANALOG WHEN COMPARED TO 2010. THAT YEAR A TOTAL
OF TEN NAMED STORMS FORMED DURING THE HURRICANE SEASON WITH SEVEN
BECOMING HURRICANES OF WHICH FIVE BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES. THREE
STORMS AFFECTED THE CARIBBEAN AND ONE OF THEM BECAME A MAJOR
HURRICANE (HURRICANE ELLA).

[Gustywind]

2010=The year with more rain in the history of Puerto Rico

Is incredible the rainfall so far this year and is only July. A bad omen for August and September in terms of hurricane threats?

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................
PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.34          0.50 1981   0.14   0.20      T
  MONTH TO DATE    8.22                      2.97   5.25     4.61
  SINCE JUN 1     17.45                      6.49  10.96    14.98
  SINCE JAN 1     48.66                     22.95  25.71    32.08



.CLIMATE...AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT...A TOTAL OF 8.22 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN
RECORDED SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS REPRESENTS THE WETTEST START TO
JULY ON RECORD TO DATE. JULY 2010 IS NOW THE FOURTH WETTEST JULY ON
RECORD. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD IS 1961 WHEN 9.35 INCHES WERE
RECORDED. 2010 STILL ON TRACK TO BE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD. THROUGH
JULY 23RD...A TOTAL OF 48.66 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECORDED. THIS IS 5.11
INCHES MORE THAN THE NEXT CLOSEST YEAR SINCE 1958.

AT THE CYRIL E. KING ARPT IN ST. THOMAS...A TOTAL OF 7.32 INCHES
HAVE BEEN RECORDED SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS REPRESENTS THE WETTEST
START TO JULY ON RECORD. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD IS 1958 WHEN
7.41 INCHES WERE RECORDED. WITH ONLY 0.10 INCHES NEEDED TO BREAK THE
RECORD AND EIGHT DAYS STILL LEFT ON THE CALENDAR MONTH IT IS MORE
THAN LIKELY THAT JULY 2010 WILL END UP AS THE WETTEST JULY ON
RECORD. LIKE IN SAN JUAN...2010 REMAINS ON TRACK TO BE ONE OF THE
WETTEST YEARS ON RECORD. SINCE JAN 1 2010...A TOTAL OF 29.96 INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT ST. THOMAS. THIS TOTAL REPRESENTS THE
SECOND WETTEST START TO A YEAR ON RECORD ONLY BEHIND 1960 WHEN 32.99
HAD BEEN RECORDED TO DATE.

AT THE CHRISTIANSTED ARPT IN ST. CROIX THINGS HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY
AS WET AS IN SAN JUAN OR ST. THOMAS. THROUGH JULY 23RD...A TOTAL OF
3.97 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECORDED. THIS REPRESENTS THE NINTH WETTEST
START TO JULY ON RECORD. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD IS 1958 WHEN
6.34 INCHES WERE RECORDED. 2010 RANKS AS THE EIGHT WETTEST START TO
A YEAR ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 21.88 INCHES.

WHILE SEARCHING FOR THIS DATA...1958...1960 AND 1961 CAME OUT IN
SEVERAL OCASSIONS AS GOOD ANALOGS FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES WITH
1958 HAVING THE BEST ANALOG WHEN COMPARED TO 2010. THAT YEAR A TOTAL
OF TEN NAMED STORMS FORMED DURING THE HURRICANE SEASON WITH SEVEN
BECOMING HURRICANES OF WHICH FIVE BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES. THREE
STORMS AFFECTED THE CARIBBEAN AND ONE OF THEM BECAME A MAJOR
HURRICANE (HURRICANE ELLA).

Just waouw hope that is not a sign of things to come ?! Oh Luis let's stay optimistic believing that Mother Nature will be much pleasant during the next months... but that's" unhopefully" awesome to read these numbers. Wait and see and keeping our fingers crossed.

[cycloneye]

17 municipalities in Puerto Rico declared on a state of emergency because of the floods and mudslides in the past week. They will recieve assistance from the U.S goverment.

http://www.primerahora.com/enestadodeem ... 02853.html

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 PM AST SAT JUL 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PUERTO RICO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY. RIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE...AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER MORE COMPLEX INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PUERTO RICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND MAINLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS VERY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...AS APPROACHING AIR MASS COMING INTO THE FA FROM THE
EAST IS MUCH DRIER AND A BIT MORE STABLE. NONETHELESS...STILL
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
BIT BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LOOKING AHEAD...A
SECOND MORE COMPLEX INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER LOCALLY...BUT THE TIMING WILL BE TRICKY. AT THIS
MOMENT...LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY LOOK
RATHER ACTIVE...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO IS MANY DAYS OUT AND
MAY WELL CHANGE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT MOST LOCAL TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH ABOUT 24/23Z IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT.

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
910 PM AST SAT JUL 24 2010

.UPDATE...SOUNDING CAME IN CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND WARMER BETWEEN
900 AND 500 MB SINCE 24 HOURS AGO AT 00Z. DRIER AIR IS ALSO
EVIDENT IN THE IR IMAGERY WHERE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 23
DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLY DRIER
AIR IS ALSO FLOWING SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT THIS
TIME AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DRIER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. ALSO OF
NOTE FROM THE 00Z SOUNDING WAS THE VERY DEEP LAYER OF EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FROM 950 MB TO ABOVE 400 MB THAT WERE 18 KNOTS OR
GREATER. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED
BELOW IS LEAVING THE AREA. IN THE PAST 6 HOURS PRECIPITABLE WATER
HAS FALLEN FROM 2.18 TO 1.79 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE SAN JUAN
SOUNDER. THE NAM DOES NOT SHOW BETTER MOISTURE UNTIL TUESDAY. THE
GFS WAITS UNTIL THURSDAY AND THE EFFECTS OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WAVE NOW JUST LEAVING THE AFRICAN COAST...WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER
WEATHER IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE. NEVERTHELESS AS SUNSHINE
BAKES THE SOGGY LAND AREAS STRONG SHOWERS CAN POKE UP THROUGH THE
DRY AIR MASS WHICH IS STILL RELATIVELY UNSTABLE...LI -7.1
TONIGHT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WEST. THESE SHOWERS
MAY BE BRIEF BUT COULD BE INTENSE IN THE FEW PLACES THAT SEE THEM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WETTER...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE
AND THE NEXT WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT
APPEAR UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST INCLUDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND SATURDAY FOR THE REST OF PUERTO RICO. HAVE UPDATED
GRIDS IN THE LONG TERM TO REFLECT THIS SIGNIFICANT PASSAGE. CANNOT
SPECULATE ON TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE...UPPER ATMOSPHERE
STILL APPEARS TO HAVE TOO MANY HIGHS AND LOWS TO FAVOR FORMATION
OF CYCLONES.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 25/24Z...EXCEPT
FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT TNCM/TKPK/TIST/TISX AND AT TJBQ
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO A LINE OF SHRA THAT DEVELOPED ON THE
NORTHWEST PR COAST. AFT 25/18Z TEMPO MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Finnally a a very needed dry day is expected in PR after the past rainy days of floodings and mudslides.

TJSJ 250833 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST SUN JUL 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
MON. TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS OVR THE NEXT
48 HRS AND ESTABLISH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ON TUE WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20W WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN CONTROL OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY. PW VALUES
DOWN TO 1.45 INCHES A FULL INCH BELOW WHAT THEY WERE A COUPLE OF
DAYS AGO. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER DRY AND
SUNNY DAY WITH ONLY A SLIM CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA OVR
WRN PR AS THE INTENSE HEATING THERE TYPICALLY OVERCOMES ANY MID
LEVEL CAPPING. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION MON AS
MOISTURE MAKES A SLOW RETURN.

RIDGING WILL ERODE TUE AS TUTT LOW BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE.
SHOULD SEE A MARKED INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS WRN PR TUE WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THU AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND
TUTT LOW ESTABLISHES NW OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER
VENTILATION ALOFT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20W THIS MORNING IS FCST BY 00Z GFS TO IMPACT
THE AREA ON SAT. THIS ALSO FOLLOWS CONTINUITY WITH YDAYS HPC/NHC
NOON COORDINATION CALL. HOWEVER...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE UPPER
LVL FEATURES WITH THE GFS ESTABLISHING A RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHILE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A TUTT AXIS OVR THE MONA PASSAGE. SO VERY
UNCERTAIN HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVE AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. AT
ANY RATE...NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS WITH THIS WAVE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT OVR THE ATLC BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 25/18Z.
AFT 25/18Z...BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ UNTIL
25/22Z IN SHRA OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH HIGHER TERRAINS
OBSCURED.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT. ANTICIPATE DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR
COASTAL WATERS OFF WRN PR.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251903
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SUN JUL 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY TONIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. ANOTHER INVERTED UPPER TROUGH AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
REFLECTIONS WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TROPICAL WAVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TODAY ENDED UP BEING ONE OF THE DRIEST DAYS IN
RECENT MEMORY...WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LIMITED CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. FOR TONIGHT...AN AREA OF MOISTURE JUST
UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST...WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO/ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...RESULTING IN SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS.
MONDAY CONTINUES LOOKING A BIT WETTER THAN TODAY...AS A SECOND
AREA OF MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING AND THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE SECOND INVERTED UPPER TROUGH AND LOW TO MID
LEVEL REFLECTIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD RESULT IN
A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN MORE IMPORTANTLY...A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRODUCING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER LOCALLY. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS DUE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT MOST LOCAL TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THROUGH ABOUT 25/23Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT.

[Macrocane]

Similar to Puerto Rico El Salvador has experienced its wettes Jan-Jun period on record and if the trend continues this will be the rainiest year ever in the country, at the moment 2005 hold the record with 2181 mm (85.9) inches, the average is 1800 mm (70.9 inches).

The first graphic shows the accumulated rainfall in March, April, June and July this year versus the climatology, as you can see since April we've had above average rainfall with May being the rainiest May ever thanks to Agatha.

The light blue is 2010 and the dark blue the climatology.



The second graphic shows the accumulated rainfall in the first six months of 2010 and the accumulated rainfall in the same period of other very rainy years (except for 2009 that was average), as you can see we're way above 2005 that was the rainiest year.

The red line is the climatology 593 mm (23.3 inches).



The third graphic shows the accumulated rain in the whole year during very rainy years and 2009 and what has been accumulated so far on 2010:

The red line is again the climatology.

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
929 PM AST SUN JUL 25 2010

.UPDATE...SOUNDING WAS DRIER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT NOT QUITE AS DRY
AS THIS MORNING`S 1.4 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER COMING IN WITH
1.53 INCHES. THIS ALSO REPRESENTS A RISE OF ABOUT 0.3 INCHES IN
THE PAST 8 HOURS....ABOUT 6200 FEET. ALMOST ALL OF THIS MOISTURE
WAS IN THE LAYER BELOW 810 MB. 15 TO 31 KNOT WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST OR EAST FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 40
THOUSAND FEET. A BAND OF MOISTURE THAT WAS NOTED IN THE MIMIC
PRODUCT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST HAS BEEN
SENDING ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO PUERTO RICO ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FLOW WITH SLIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN. A FEW MADE IT AS DEEP AS
JAYUYA...SEVERAL WILL DROP ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS IN RIO GRANDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO IN A FIELD OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT`S
FORECAST IS GOING TO HOLD AND WILL NEED NO UPDATES. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FLOW AND MOISTURE SHOULD COMBINE TO PLACE AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN A NARROW SWATH OF SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. THE
40 PERCENT POP FOR SAN JUAN MONDAY IS MAINLY DUE TO EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS.

FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...SHOWERS IN THE FLOW WILL PASS OVER
BUT THE CHANCES ARE STILL SLIM FOR GETTING A MEASURABLE AMOUNT OF
RAIN IN NY ONE SPOT. IT COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE AREA OVER
NIGHT HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE DEPTH OF THE EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND THE ABOVE NORMAL INTENSITY.

SHORT-TERM GRIDS AND FORECASTS LOOK GOOD TONIGHT SO WILL NOT
CHANGE THEM.

[cycloneye]

Wow Macrocane, almost similar there as it looks like almost the whole Caribbean basin is above normal on the rainfall.

[KWT]

The long range ECM did suggest a very wet summer for the Caribbean and it seems to be coming off nicely at the moment.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Not a complete dry week ahead as TUTT and waves will move thru to add more rainfall totals to the already record 2010.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST MON JUL 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS TO THE
CNTRL/ERN CARIBBEAN OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS AND BECOME THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH A SECOND ONE ON SUN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATER
TODAY AS TUTT LOW ACROSS THE ATLC RETROGRESSES INTO THE AREA. THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ISOLD TO SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THAT SHOULD
CONCENTRATE OVR SOUTHWEST PR GIVEN NE STEERING FLOW.

SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUE-WED AS TUTT
HELPS DESTABILIZES ATMS FURTHER. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THU. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE
IS CURRENTLY VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...IT SHOULD BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
TUTT LOW TO GIVE US VERY ACTIVE WX.

UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST THU NIGHT ACCORDING TO
00Z GFS WITH DRYING INDICATED THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. IN CONTRAST TO
PREVIOUS RUNS...MODELS NOW MAINTAIN A DRY AIR MASS FOR FRI AND
SAT. NEXT WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 25W HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO SUN BY
00Z ECMWF/GFS MODELS AS SO DOES NHC/HPC AS SEEN IN YESTERDAY`S HPC`S
EXTENDED GRAPHICS. SO HAVE ADJUSTED FCST TO STAY IN LINE WITH
NATIONAL CENTERS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH 26/16Z. ONLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK IN PASSING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH 26/16Z. AFTER 26/16Z FEW TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN AND
AROUND TJMZ. ENE SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS
INCREASING TO 5 FT FRI. ISOLD/SCT AFTERNOON TSRA MOVING OFF WRN
EACH DAY.

&&

[cycloneye]

Below is the Mondays discussion by Crownweather services.

Discussion
This week should be fairly quiet in the tropical Atlantic and there are no areas that look to develop into a tropical cyclone over at the least the next few days.

The only area that I will be watching with some interest this week is a large tropical wave now located over the Cape Verde Islands. This tropical wave currently has little convection associated with it, however, it will need to be watched for possible development later on down the road, perhaps as early as the end of this week. Water vapor satellite imagery showed a large moisture envelope associated with the wave and there is a distinct spin observed on water vapor satellite loops. The Saharan Air Layer is forecast to not impede this system and wind shear values may be favorable as it tracks westward across the eastern and central Atlantic this week into this weekend.

Overall, it appears that the last week of July should be quiet with no new named storms expected.

What could be in store for August and Beyond:
I think we should be very concerned about what the rest of the hurricane season holds in store for us here in the Atlantic Basin. I expect the Madden Julian Oscillation to return to a upward motion phase by about August 10th and then by about August 15th, we should see the Atlantic really get active with a very active storm train that may not stop until at least October. As I mentioned in my discussion on Saturday, there are two years that are fairly analogous to this hurricane season, 1998 and to a lesser extent 2004:

1998: In 1998, we transitioned from an El Nino to a La Nina, which is very similar to this season. One thing to point out is that in 1998, the first named storm did not occur until July 27th with the second named storm occurring on August 19th. From the period of August 19th and October 10th, there were 11 named storms, 8 of those becoming hurricanes and 2 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. Also, the 1998 hurricane season ran late with a named storm in late November and early December. In all, the 1998 hurricane season produced 14 named storms, 10 of those becoming hurricanes and 3 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes.



2004: The 2004 hurricane season did not kick off until July 31st with the first named storm. Then between July 31st and October 11th, there were 14 named storms, 9 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 6 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. The 2004 hurricane season, much like 1998, ran late with a named storm in late November and early December. In all, the 2004 hurricane season produced 15 named storms, 9 of those becoming hurricanes and 6 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes.



In addition to the analog years of 1998 and 2004, there are some signs from the long range model guidance that trouble me a great deal. The latest weekly forecasts from the European model indicates that any tropical systems traveling westward in the Atlantic and Caribbean will head towards the Gulf of Mexico and not up the US East Coast through at least Mid-August as a high pressure system over the eastern United States foreces storms a westerly course towards Florida and the Gulf Coast. The monthly forecast from the European model points to a possible open path for tropical cyclones into the Gulf of Mexico and also into the US Southeast coast through September.



Also, the latest UKMET forecast for the upper level winds for August, September and October show the potential for a large high pressure system to sit just north of New England. If this verifies, it would be the worst possible pattern for multiple hurricane hits on the United States coastline, particularly the US Southeast coast and Gulf of Mexico.



So, what can one take away from this?? Basically, the hurricane season hasn’t even begun to get going!! I have both heard and read on the net that this season is a bust; there’s been a lot of hand wringing and “season cancel” remarks. I’m here to tell you to go over your hurricane preparedness kit and if you need supplies and can afford it, go to your local supermarket, your local Target, Wal-Mart or Lowe’s and purchase what you need.

If this season is anything close to 1998 or 2004, things should basically turn on overnight. So, my feeling is that we will have a barrage of named storms probably starting somewhere between August 8th and August 14th and then continuing until about October 15th. During this timeframe, I expect 13 named storms, 9 of those becoming hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. In addition, I strongly believe that this season will run late (Through November and possibly into early December) with 2 additional named storms with 1 of those storms becoming a hurricane.

In all, I expect the 2010 hurricane season to end with 17 named storms, 11 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes.

[Macrocane]

Yesterday was a very rainy day for San Salvador, and it seems that today may be very wet too as heavy showers have been affecting the central part of the country for about an hour. Yesterday rainfall and temperatures

Rainfall

Los Naranjos 40 mm/1.57 inches
San Salvador 70 mm/2.76 inches
Cojutepeque 46 mm/1.81 inches
Cerron Grande 35 mm/1.38 inches
San Miguel 45 mm/1.77 inches

Temperatures

Code: Select all

Acajutla         min:23.3°C/73.9°F      max:31.2°C/88.2°F
Santa Ana        min:19.6°C/67.3°F      max:31.4°C/88.5°F
San Salvador     min:20.5°C/68.9°F      max:30.3°C/86.5°F
Las Pilas        min:12.9°C/55.2°F      max:21.4°C/70.5°F
San Miguel       min:22.1°C/71.8°F      max:34.3°C/93.7°F