Bonnie's Miami Landfall, What Does It Mean For SFL?

[Blown Away]

Not very often TS or Hurricanes effect SFL during July, so a Bonnie landfall in SFL may mean a very active season for SFL, especially late season systems from the NW Caribbean.

All TS or Hurricanes in July within 150 miles of Bonnie's Miami landfall point
(1878, 1899, 1908, 1915, 1926, 1933, 1936, 1985).


All TS or Hurricanes in all months, except July, within 150 miles of Bonnie's Miami landfall point that occurred during years when there was a TS or Hurricane that effected SFL in July. (1878, 1899, 1908, 1915, 1926, 1933, 1936).

[gatorcane]

something is not right with that bottom graphic. There should be *many* more sytems. For example where is Andrew?

[Stephanie]

His graphic is only for July storms.

[Blown Away]

something is not right with that bottom graphic. There should be *many* more sytems. For example where is Andrew?

SFL didn't have a 1992 July landfall within 150 miles of Bonnie, that's why no Andrew. Just found it interesting how active the SFL area is for the rest of the season during years when SFL had a TS or Hurricane landfall in July.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Not to nit pick

But Gator is correct, the bottom states all storms except July. But a great comparison all the same.

[SFLcane]

Tropical cyclones in July are indeed a rare accurence in the month of July for SFL.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news/July_SoFLTC.pdf

[gatorcane]

Not to nit pick

But Gator is correct, the bottom states all storms except July. But a great comparison all the same.

Exactly, the text for the bottom graphic states all named storms except July.

What is the difference between the top and bottom graphic then? Does the bottom graphic also include systems from the NW Caribbean within 150 miles of Bonnie's landfall point for just the month of July while the top graphic just shows the Atlantic systems for the month of July?

[Blown Away]

Not to nit pick

But Gator is correct, the bottom states all storms except July. But a great comparison all the same.

Exactly, the text for the bottom graphic states all named storms except July.

What is the difference between the top and bottom graphic then? Does the bottom graphic also include systems from the NW Caribbean within 150 miles of Bonnie's landfall point for just the month of July while the top graphic just shows the Atlantic systems for the month of July?

Top map is all TS or Hurricane that came within 150 miles of Bonnie's landfall point during July only. Bottom map is taken those years (1878, 1899, 1908, 1915, 1926, 1933, 1936) when there was a TS or Hurricane within 150 miles of Bonnie Miami landfall during July and looking at the rest of the hurricane season months to see if a SFL July TS or Hurricane means the remainder of the season is active for SFL. Sorry I made it so confusing!

[JPmia]

Well this is something I've been thinking about too. Does Bonnie's path and weather pattern setup give us any clues as to the atmospheric pattern for storm formation in August/September? If you look at all the pre-season hurricane forecast maps, they show the northern caribbean islands, Florida/SFL, and the northern Gulf Coast as high risk areas this season.

[fci]

The bottom graphic also seemed to show all "no name" storms.
Is that because during the more modern era there were no July storms so therefore no named systems?

[thetruesms]

When you made the bottom graphic from your "analog" years, did you include June? Were any of them even June storms? It might not really add to your argument to include any that were.

I know you probably just took a qualitative look to see if things tended to be busy later in the season when there was a July hit/near approach, but it might be interesting to take a deeper look - how many times per season does SoFla get a hit/near approach in August-November in seasons where it does take an early hit as opposed to seasons when it does not?

[somethingfunny]

The bottom graphic also seemed to show all "no name" storms.
Is that because during the more modern era there were no July storms so therefore no named systems?

Yep. 1985 had Bob impact SFL in July but no other storms affected SFL that year. Bonnie is only the second July storm to impact SFL since 1936.

Very interesting post, Blown Away! Thanks for putting those graphics together!

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Just because one thing happened, doesn't really mean something else is going to happen. Granted it might have happened for some other reason two events are connected in different ways, but a Miami landfall in July is just that and no more. It might indicate that there are no weaknesses in the Atlantic ridge, but as for predicting further landfalls in the year? Hogwash.

[Blown Away]

When you made the bottom graphic from your "analog" years, did you include June? Were any of them even June storms? It might not really add to your argument to include any that were.

I know you probably just took a qualitative look to see if things tended to be busy later in the season when there was a July hit/near approach, but it might be interesting to take a deeper look - how many times per season does SoFla get a hit/near approach in August-November in seasons where it does take an early hit as opposed to seasons when it does not?

Yes, I did include June, in 1936 a June TS crossed the S tip of SFL and then there was a July 1936 TS, only year there was a June/July SFL system. Yes this was just a qualitative look, not much depth! 6 of the 8 years sampled had another TS or hurricane within 150 miles of SFL, wow! So using my sample data SFL has 75% chance of seeing another TS or hurricane this season!

[Blown Away]

Just because one thing happened, doesn't really mean something else is going to happen. Granted it might have happened for some other reason two events are connected in different ways, but a Miami landfall in July is just that and no more. It might indicate that there are no weaknesses in the Atlantic ridge, but as for predicting further landfalls in the year? Hogwash.

I agree, nothing scientific about it and maybe it's just a coincidence, but the stats don't lie.

[Stephanie]

Not to nit pick

But Gator is correct, the bottom states all storms except July. But a great comparison all the same.

My BAD! Thanks for clarifying it!

[gatorcane]

Well this is something I've been thinking about too. Does Bonnie's path and weather pattern setup give us any clues as to the atmospheric pattern for storm formation in August/September? If you look at all the pre-season hurricane forecast maps, they show the northern caribbean islands, Florida/SFL, and the northern Gulf Coast as high risk areas this season.

Regarding the steering patterns in August and September, I generally do not think that we can make any correlation with the steering that was present for Bonnie and steering patterns that will be present later in the season. That is because the long-wave pattern periodically changes throughout the season. It's quite possible that a large CONUS trough could setup along the eastern CONUS for long periods of Aug. and Sept, which would deflect several storms. That said, I will say that this summer has been the first since 2004 where I have seen long periods of easterly "trades" here in South Florida with tropical waves passing by from time to time. In fact the weather patterns this summer are very similar to what we saw in 2004 with the strong easterly windflow. That has caused a pattern where afternoon storms are generally lining up along the western side of the peninsula with nocturnal and morning showers for the eastern side of the peninsula with very warm overnight lows as the wind blows over the very warm gulf stream current. As a result, it's been drier than normal this summer so far. Bonnie brought some showers (most of the rain was in Broward and Miami-Dade), but it is still below normal nonetheless. June was the warmest June on record, mostly because lows did not drop below 80F for most of the second half of the month. This pattern has continued through nearly the entire month of July.

So certainly I do wonder if this type of pattern will also be around by August and September. If it is, wouldn't surprise me to have some systems from the east we will have to watch. I also want to emphasize to not underestimate October since South Florida is hit more from the South (from the Caribbean) than the East. In La Nina years the Western Caribbean can generate hurricanes where generally they get lifted northward as heights are generally lower across North America due to the onset of fall. There have even been systems from the east that have hit South Florida in October as well. So South Florida is just as vulnerable in October as August or September.

[Sanibel]

It tells you if that track happened in early September it probably would have been a nightmare hurricane. The second landfall was over New Orleans.

[Scorpion]

I agree with you there gatorcane.. it has been extremely muggy and uncomfortable at night. Looks like lows have been running up to 8 degrees above normal at times.

[Patrick99]

Tropical cyclones in July are indeed a rare accurence in the month of July for SFL.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news/July_SoFLTC.pdf

I've always wondered why that is.

I guess it's a good thing that this was July, because let's face it, Bonnie took a track almost identical to some legendary September storms of the past.