ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Stormcenter]

Still hanging on.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Stormcenter]

Convection back on the rebound.
This could be her last gasp for survival.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[thetruesms]

Bonnie's a stubborn girl. Can't get markedly stronger, doesn't have the courtesy to just go away I can see this dance going on until she's over land

[wxman57]

The little swirl is starting to open now, and the latest round of convection appears to be weakening. Hard to see NHC killing it at 10am, though, as long as there's even a weak LLC.

[Vortmax1]

[Sanibel]

Bonnie likes being over warm water again. It could make one last run back to TS but I doubt it. Should be something to watch on radar as it approaches. The ULL mugged this system.

[Vortmax1]

...BONNIE HANGING IN THERE WITH 30 MPH WINDS...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

WE HAVE TO GIVE CREDIT TO DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT ALL ALONG
FORECAST THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF BONNIE.

FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[poof121]

Okay, is it my imagination, or did the center reform just west of the old one?

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Vortmax1]

As of the last Recon center fix...no.
It moved back more to the right at 14:34:

[Vortmax1]

[shell70]

Maybe I am losing my mind which is possible considering the amount of sleep I have had in 24 hours but didn't they discontinue the tropical storm warning for the Gulf Coast? At about 11am this morning the NWS Emergency Alert System broke through our cable t.v. with their usual report with Tropical Storm Warning extended but the voice said that the TS warning were discontinue. Then when I went online to check TWC for my area says that Tropical Storm warning from MS/AL line to Florida panhandle has been extended as of 11:30am. Also when I check another website I saw the same thing.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201003_alerts.html#a_topad

Are these just old and they just have not updated the typing or maps or is something going on? Everything else I have read says the the Tropical storm warnings for this area have been dropped.

[Vortmax1]

From what I have seen all the TS warnings and watches have been dropped.

Here's the NWS Southern Region page...just click on the office you want:


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/

[HeeBGBz]

We have cloud cover in Biloxi. No rain and it's very still out. No breeze. I was hoping for some tropic breezes at least. It cooled the temps down some. Could stand some more cooling.

I think she's not too far offshore.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=MOB

[Category 5]

If this was a cat 3, oh dear god, this would be a horrible track.

But anyways, Louisiana is under a state of emergency for a tropical depression, priceless.

[StormClouds63]

Dr. McCoy and Dandy Don are still in the "green room." Be patient, fellows, the end is near thanks to that ULL. Bonnie gave it a good fight, but in the end the ULL wins out.

[lebron23]

Problem right now south of New Orleans is rainfall...Some storms that are dropping 3-3.5 inches per hour

[Steve]

>>I think she's not too far offshore.

As per the 1km high res zoomable,

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

I have it about due south of Pensacola, FL heading wnw. While currently pulsing down (and winding down to be sure), she's still got some gas left in the tank. There was heavy rain south of Houma earlier, and there's a strong band down near the mouth of the River (Plaquemines Parish).

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

While Bonnie was never more than a weak tropical storm, her low level center was a survivor. I'm curious to see if she has one more pulse later this evening - maybe while interacting with land.
----------------------------------
>>But anyways, Louisiana is under a state of emergency for a tropical depression, priceless.

Give the state credit for not sleeping under any circumstances. Don't forget that we have millions of gallons of oil floating around offshore. A couple feet of tide here or surge there could ruin another oyster reef, more estuaries, a bay or whatever. You have booms and barges in a lot of those areas. You also need pumping stations manned in the event of training or rainfall rates per hour that swamp drainage. As noted above, there are some 3-5" per hour estimates. That's a lot faster the pumps can work. No doubt the stations are manned. It's the way it should be and good practice for the next 12 weeks for the local, state and federal governments.

[shell70]

From what I have seen all the TS warnings and watches have been dropped.

Here's the NWS Southern Region page...just click on the office you want:


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/

thank you!

[Andrew92]

Best track:

AL, 03, 2010072418, , BEST, 0, 281N, 870W, 25, 1013, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 125, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BONNIE, M,


Last advisory coming up?

-Andrew92

[wxman57]

The weak swirl has now become totally disassociated from all shower activity and is drifting westward. Chances of regeneration are near zero. Bones says this one doesn't even remotely qualify for depression status now. Oh, and the latest model guidance header says "Disturbance Bonnie". It's done.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1806 UTC SAT JUL 24 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE BONNIE (AL032010) 20100724 1800 UTC