So far...

[Frank2]

The GOM ULL, twin ULL's over the northern Caribbean, and a formidable TUTT in our area, all ATTM - not exactly a favorable environment for tropical cyclone formation...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

per what has been mentioned this past week in several places (NWS, etc.), the MJO is not forecast to change through most of August, and I'm sure those who make the seasonal forecasts are watching this very closely to see if perhaps they were wrong to say this was going to be a busier than normal season, since the statistics show that most Atlantic hurricane seasons are essentially over by the end of September, or two months from now...

There's a topic on this board right now that goes on about the SST's and how busy it will be and how anxious many are for the season to begin (hard to believe the poster is from New Orleans - guess he hasn't suffered enough), but many here have realized that it takes more than warm water to make a hurricane...

So far, there was Alex, a formidable hurricane, but as we know TD2 was weak and disorganized and the same for TD3/Bonnie, so in reality we've only had one system that could be said meets the seasonal forecast criteria, and that doesn't make for a busy season so far...

Of course we do not know what can happen from one weather system to the next, so I'd never guess that it'd be as quiet or unfavorable for the rest of the season, but it's worth repeating that this is why the forecasters of the 1980's were not eager to embrace the seasonal forecast trend, since too much is not known about what can change a weather pattern...

True, the technology has changed since then and the models are far more sophisticated - but that does not change the unknowns of nature, known only to God...

[Portastorm]

Hard to argue with the real weather to date, Frank. Your points are well taken. The NOAA information released on 7.19.10 indicated the recently active MJO in the Atlantic Basin is going to relax some as we end July and enter August.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well if it is going to be as unfavorable in August as you are suggesting Frank, then we always have September for it to pick up...Although late September and onward is when you get fronts starting to come down creating more shear as well, which often doesn't bode well for development.

[Scorpion]

Yup.. might as well cancel the season. No major hurricanes will form this year, I wonder when's the last time that happened.

[Portastorm]

Yup.. might as well cancel the season. No major hurricanes will form this year, I wonder when's the last time that happened.

(Portastorm experiences a full body shiver) Sarcasm or anti-jinxes aside ... the last time I saw a post like this from an S2K member, Hurricane Ike ransacked southeast Texas within a week or two!

[ConvergenceZone]

Yup.. might as well cancel the season. No major hurricanes will form this year, I wonder when's the last time that happened.

Hehe, I know you are being sarcastic....
I still say that when all is said and done and the books are closed on 2010 , they will look back and realize how way overhyped the predictions for the season have been...In my opinion....

[Frank2]

Well, I think what's makes many of us (myself included) wonder about this season is the busted 2006 forecast - that was the busted forecast of all time, since almost all professional folks had forecast a continuation of 2005 - thankfully the earlier and stronger than expected El Nino put an end to that, but it's that doubt that still lingers when it comes to another "busier than average season" forecast...

I'm sure they're biting their nails as we speak, since another busted forecast would seriously damage their credibility - definitely it would set meteorology back about 20 years...

Though we'll see what that darn MJO does - ugh...

Of course there's that "ring of fire" issue in the northern midwest ATTM, which is driving people out of house and home as we speak - I'm sure they're anxious for a change in the weather pattern, too...

[gatorcane]

Frank, it's certainly easy to start a thread like this as we roll into the start of August with a lull out there at the moment....

But one point I want to make is that you indicated most Atlantic hurricane season are over by the end of September. For La Nina years like this one, this is generally not true. Typically La Nina years last well into October and even November and generally get a late start.

As far as South Florida is concerned where you and I reside, July has always been a very quiet month. In fact South Florida has never seen a hurricane in July and just 4 tropical storms from as long as records are kept (pre 1900). In fact most South Florida threats are from the South not the east, making September and especially October prime months here. So wouldn't become too complacent with what we have seen so far by any means...not only that but this is the first time since 2004 where i have seen weeks and weeks of easterly "trades" for South Florida which has made things nearly bone dry out there with storms pushing inland to the west coast of FL each afternoon. That is telling me steering could be setting up for threats from the east this year.

All indicators are that this is going to be an active season. There are always ULLs and dry air around, even in active seasons as well so I don't see anything out of the ordinary out there pointing at a very quiet season. I do think there will be some formidable hurricanes to deal with for those along the U.S coast. Caribbean, and Florida in the next few months.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think the problem is, with the predicted La Nina setup, everyone seems to get fixated on how warm the water is going to be, but as Bonnie has proven to us, it takes much more than just warm bath water to sustain or develop a storm. For example, with this La Nina, how we do know that there is not going to be lots of shear or other factors, such as upper level lows in place that potential storms may struggle with?

There's no doubt that there will be more development this year, but I think forecasting a really active year is a guess and nothing more, especially because of the reasons I just mentioned.

[StormClouds63]

The season forecasts called for too many storms. Now, this year isn't going to be another 2006, but I think 13-15 is a more realistic number at this point. I had this year at 13/7/3, and I'm sticking with those numbers.

Look at the WV for the Atlantic Basin ... not conducive for any development in the next several days. Colin will probably not develop until August 10-15.

I think the revised forecasts will indeed show a downward trend ... nothing spectacular, but a decrease nonetheless.

[ConvergenceZone]

The season forecasts called for too many storms. Now, this year isn't going to be another 2006, but I think 13-15 is a more realistic number at this point. I had this year at 13/7/3, and I'm sticking with those numbers.

Look at the WV for the Atlantic Basin ... not conducive for any development in the next several days. Colin will probably not develop until August 10-15.

I think the revised forecasts will indeed show a downward trend ... nothing spectacular, but a decrease nonetheless.

I haven't even made a prediction on the number of storms this season, because I honestly have no clue.....

[srainhoutx]

NAO is relaxing. I suspect given a bit more time we will see the tropical switch turned to the 'on' position. Infact I would not be suprised to see tropical cyclones traveling across the Atlantic Basin well into late October/early November IMO.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm hoping we will have a quiet season, but it's just way to early to say anything. Obviously, we won't see anything like 2005, but all it takes is one storm to do serious damage. Don't become too complacent because things happen that you can't predict. It's hard to believe that with all of the favorable factors setting up this year that we will have a quiet season. It's just wouldn't add up to me, something will give and it won't be pretty.

[SFLcane]

That Atlantic looks perfecty normal for mid july with SAL peaking ULL'S etc... If today were august 25 then i would begin to question those seasonal forecast a bit. Numbers predicted dont mean anything in my view of things as its the ones that impact land that have the greatest impact.

[lebron23]

I expect the tropics to ramp up starting Aug 5th-10th

[KWT]

Right well a few things....

1: like it or not we have had Tropical Storm Bonnie, its poorly organised but it counts...and so does TD2, the fqact your only including Alex already makes your point more or elss null and void. EVen back in the 1800s Bonnie would have counted due to its track.

Anyway what of the 3 best known slow start seasons at this time...

1969:
0/0/0 (3rd storm formed 14th August)

1998:
0/0/0 (3rd storm formed 21st August)

2004
0/0/0 (3rd storm formed 9th August)

2010
2/1/0 (3rd storm....who knows!)

So as we can all see we are above all 3 of those seasons and each of those were considered hyperactive seasons.

There are many other seasons that support this idea but I'll list them later if its needed.

Now as for our friend the MJO...I've said in another thread...*don't* try to use it and forecast it in La Nina...you'll just end up looking silly over and over again. The MJO really doesn't matter in La Ninas...BUT that is a part of the reason why La Ninas start slow. Actually if people remember I made many posts in the Spring about a moderate La Nina possibly holding things back in terms of numbers but the ACE will still justify a hyperactive season.

Now for those who think we may be at risk of not getting above average. Lets have a look at what 2009 had:

At the moment:
0/0/0

Total:
9/3/2

So even IF we had a 2009 rerun (which won't happen!) we would end up with 11NS...which in the longer term stats the NHC use is...ABOVE AVERAGE...

So its *still* too early to make any calls just yet...if we have nothing by 20th August then and only then can we start to really discount those high numbers...and FWIW there are some factors which reminds me a lot of 2007 which saw a fair few struggling systems...

I'm thinking right now 14-16NS is looking the more likely range, but its still do able to reach 18NS IMO.

[jcoffee]

The worst news of all is that we are likely to see an increase in monster storms like Katrina and Ike. These storms can cause more destruction than any cat 5. Very scary time period we live in.

"Global warming MUST be factored into hurricane and coastal planning: Over this century, maximum windspeeds could increase 13 percent and rainfall could increase 31 percent."

http://www.nwf.org/Global-Warming/What- ... canes.aspx

[southerngale]

Now you've done it, Frank2. You've jinxed us all!

[wxman57]

Actually, shear remains below normal across most of the tropics for July. The presence of the upper lows is perfectly normal for this time of year. Things change quickly in August out there:

[fci]

I know it is fun to "guess" how many storms there will be but given all the tools out there and the consensus that the Pro's had that this would be an active season; I am not ready to write off this season as a dud. While I would like that to ultimately occur; July is hardly the time to start sounding the warning that "they were all wrong".
It is curious to me how some on the board are seemingly non-stop nay sayers, sort of cut out of that "get off my lawn, you kids" mold. And then there are others who always see the sky falling.
Some of you are oh so predictable.
If the tropics were as predictable as you are, the forecasts would be a snap!
Let's see how it plays out folks.