18z Model Maps for August 13th, 2003

[Stormsfury]

Globals are unavailable for update ... PSU remains down ...

[Stormsfury]

The Melbourne 10-m winds and PMSL (mb) (originally posted by drezee on another thread) seems to still verify right now the initialization was correct and the LL entity further south is the still the clearest low-level entity ATT ...

[cycloneye]

Stormsfury guess what that is your LLC from yesterday remember that debate?

[Stormsfury]

Maybe ... still NE winds SW of the deep convection ...

http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/a ... loope.html

[Steve]

Yo Fury,

FWIW, I backed you around the web on your take yesterday. That MLC (yesterday's version) seemed like a mirage. Yeah, the 'classic' look was there, but as the convection died off before morning and reformed closer (though still behind and north of) to the old LLC, I had to smile. That stuff is a classic sucker punch. When I posted on flhurricane this morning, I had to bring that up because the same arguments had been taking place over there. I've been tricked WAYYYYYY too many times by the look of a developing system (especially ones with suffering S'ly or SW'ly shear) that I wasn't buying the hype. In any event, looks like some squally weather for Florida.

I'm most looking forward to what happens seeing as 91L is rolling along almost due north of the big ULL, due south of a retrograding Atlantic born high pressure and into ridging in the Gulf. I'm not ready to make a call on intensity, though I'm leaning toward a Texas landfall (had hinted last Saturday the potential for dual-landfall - FL/TX - tropical storm conditions). I think with the way the Gulf water's warmed up relative to what it was 2-3 weeks ago, it can support a Cat 2 or 3. Conditions won't be bad, but there are interactions to consider that I just have to wait on until I can see where it's going. Cat-1 is far from out of the question, and if 91L can get away from or into a more favorable alignment with the ULL, Cat 2 or higher isn't out of the question in a Texas landfall scenario.

Remnants of 90L ran out of room as the wave got under ridging on the Yucatan last night. It's now down in the BOC heading on westward with just a hint of outflow and spin. We've got some of the northern extremity up here - mostly offshore.

Anyway, good work as always.

Steve

[Johnny]

Good post Steve. Are you looking at a lower Texas coast landfall?

[Andrew92]

Too early to tell if it in fact IS heading towards the lower Texas coast.

All I ask out of this system:

PLEASE DON'T BE A CLAUDETTE REDUX!!!!!

-Andrew92

[Stormsfury]

Once again, Thanks Steve (for the backing across the web)

The heat content of the GOM is what scares me ... SST's in the GOM are very warm ... over 30ºC across the GOM ... furthermore, the current location of the Invest is now embedded in 30ºC SST's ...

BTW, the invest is generally heading towards a warm water eddy running 31.5ºC through the Straits and off the W Coast of Florida in 24-36 hours.



SF

[Steve]

I'm leaning that way Johnny. Some of the earlier models wanted a SW component, but they've since backed off. I want to see how far south the ridge settles over the northern Gulf and what happens with the ULL. We'll know a lot about the potential by Friday am. It could stay weak with the competing forces or it could crank up. Put it this way, I'd be much more wary if I was in Brownsville than if I was in Miami.

Steve

[Stormsfury]

Dramatic Visible Imagery.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... t&type=vis

[vbhoutex]

I'm leaning that way Johnny. Some of the earlier models wanted a SW component, but they've since backed off. I want to see how far south the ridge settles over the northern Gulf and what happens with the ULL. We'll know a lot about the potential by Friday am. It could stay weak with the competing forces or it could crank up. Put it this way, I'd be much more wary if I was in Brownsville than if I was in Miami.

Steve

Like you said it is too early to give any definitive call on the eventual landfall of what should become Erika in about 48-60 hrs. What will happen intensity wise you have covered well Steve. Landfall locations are all still clustering around the lower TX coast near B'ville, but I am really waiting to see how soon and how far the high coming in from the N settles before I buy the southern route completely. Of course the Bermuda high has to ridge in like progged for tha Southern track to hold water too. So far it is the most freasible with everything considered.

[ALhurricane]

I just posted this in another thread, but might as well show it here

If you look at the 500 mb chart from 12z this morning...

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/difaxMa ... =23&ua.y=3

2-5 dm height rises across the southeast. The ridge is definitely building in and should steer this system westward.