Storm2k 5pm Tropical Outlook

[ALhurricane]

Here it is for all inquiring minds...

http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

[Rainband]

Thanks Jason..Central Florida will get weather from this..wow!! I guess thats cause it's not as organized as it could be and a broad area. About futher down the road?? Isn't that area of convection in the GOM gonna make it harder for this to develop or can it plow right through it???? Thanks in advance

[ALhurricane]

For the GOM, conditions will improve as the 500 mb trough retrogrades (moves further west) in response to the building ridge. So all the activity you see in the Gulf now should focus further west in time, leaving favorable conditions for the system to develop.

[Rainband]

Thanks Jason..

[ALhurricane]

Not a problem

I'll add a little more info here.. Take a look at the 500 mb chart from this morning...

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/difaxMa ... =23&ua.y=3

It's a big map, but if you look across the southeast, you will noted 2-5 dm hight rises. This indicates the ridge is building in. This is what will steer the system westward across the Gulf.

[ColdFront77]

It is taking longer than it could for the trough in the west-central Gulf of Mexico to move westward, considering.

Just like a "real" cold front, tropical disturbances can't move through troughs.