Wave WSW of CV Islands

[cycloneye]

Certainly, the rainfall amounts have increased inside Africa in the past few weeks.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/

[HURAKAN]

Latest SAL

[HURAKAN]

We must watch the wave near 35W over the next few days

[HURAKAN]

Probably old but this is the latest!

[KWT]

Need to watch the African coast soon, the models are becoming really rather suggestive of something developing...

[ronjon]

wave near 24w becoming organized.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=mediterranean/sahara&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20100613.0130.msg2.ir.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

[KWT]

The wave does look interesting i have to admit, though the models seem to favour the one behind it possibly...

That being said looking hard at the ECM it does seem to track something in this region and if it is a slow mover this region maybe one to watch, we'll see...almost certainly the one the CMC is tracking.

[Vortmax1]

According to the 00Z models we could have at least two systems originating way out here to track in the next 10 days.
Seeing the ECM this morning was definitely interesting.





TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
234 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 2010

AT LOW LEVELS EXPECTING A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH THE PUERTO RICO
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE WAVE
IS TO INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT TO FAVOR A MOIST SURGE...WITH
PWS INCREASING ABOVE 50MM. THE OPERATIONAL GFS MADE SOME
CORRECTIONS AND IT IS NOW MORE IN TUNE WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL (SOON
TO BECOME OPERATIONAL) PARALLEL GFS...AS BOTH SHOW INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT LULL IN
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT EASTERLY WAVE
THAT ENTERS THE BASIN LATE ON SATURDAY. THE LATTER WILL TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF A DEEPER TUTT PATTERN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND IS
LIKELY TO BE MORE ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED. BUT AS UNFAVORABLE MJO
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...SO WE ARE NOT
TOO CONFIDENT ON POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED/HEAVY CONVECTION. MOST
LIKELY WE ARE GOING TO SEE VERY LOCALIZED MAXIMA WITH MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

[cycloneye]

I am in the development bandwagon after the ECMWF came aboard.

192 hours



240 hours

[wxman57]

The models aren't developing any current wave, they're developing a feature that's still over central Africa. I think that we may well have another 5-10 days before the next storm forms (2nd week of August). That's when the next upward motion pulse reaches the Atlantic Basin.

[cycloneye]

The models aren't developing any current wave, they're developing a feature that's still over central Africa. I think that we may well have another 5-10 days before the next storm forms (2nd week of August). That's when the next upward motion pulse reaches the Atlantic Basin.

That is why I mantain the title (Wave about to emerge Africa)

[rockyman]

According to this loop, the low that becomes the storm in the Caribbean will be south of the Cape Verdes by Friday evening:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

[Vortmax1]

The area seems to be in the crosshairs of interest now:

[cycloneye]

Nice visible image loop.

[ronjon]

According to this loop, the low that becomes the storm in the Caribbean will be south of the Cape Verdes by Friday evening:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

So the Euro is clearly developing the wave emerging off the African coast this morning and not the one due south of the Cape Verde Islands now.

[Blown Away]

According to this loop, the low that becomes the storm in the Caribbean will be south of the Cape Verdes by Friday evening:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

So the Euro is clearly developing the wave emerging off the African coast this morning and not the one due south of the Cape Verde Islands now.

I agree, it does appear the wave coming off Africa today is the wave that develops and if the ECMWF is correct the high pressure is building in as this system moves through the NE Caribbean in about 10 days.

[cycloneye]

Below is the mention of the possible? developing area? or is still inside Africa? There is some confusion about which area is the one the models are latching on. Or maybe two different systems? As you can see many questions are pending on this.

SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 13W-21W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 22W-25W.

[TheBurn]

[hurricaneCW]

The models aren't developing any current wave, they're developing a feature that's still over central Africa. I think that we may well have another 5-10 days before the next storm forms (2nd week of August). That's when the next upward motion pulse reaches the Atlantic Basin.

I agree that it will take almost two weeks for anything to get going. Looks like another surge of SAL with the wave coming off the African coastline and wind shear isn't too favorable either for parts of the eastern Atlantic and Caribbean. The 2nd half of August should be quite active if the models are correct.

[Riptide]

The models aren't developing any current wave, they're developing a feature that's still over central Africa. I think that we may well have another 5-10 days before the next storm forms (2nd week of August). That's when the next upward motion pulse reaches the Atlantic Basin.

I agree that it will take almost two weeks for anything to get going. Looks like another surge of SAL with the wave coming off the African coastline and wind shear isn't too favorable either for parts of the eastern Atlantic and Caribbean. The 2nd half of August should be quite active if the models are correct.

According to nearly every model, including the euro. We should already have Colin by August at least August 10th, GFS says August 2nd-4th. More to come! Just look at the amount of moisture that is now in the MDR(Not much but it is not a desert anymore) and the new wave train that is just plowing through. The wave that just exited Africa already has a strong surface vorticity associated with it.

In response to your SAL assessment, Parts of Northern Africa have been receiving record rainfall and if you combine this with an active wave train, SAL will quickly become a non-factor and already has in many ways especially with waves that enter the Atlantic at a very low latitude.