Wave in Central Caribbean

[tgenius]

The irony is we are going to re-test our BCP between Aug 4-6 so when I get back next Fri night things may start getting cooking..

[sandyb]

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... imate=true THIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD RIGHT NOW

[rockyman]

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 18N37W 13N41W 7N44W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO
LIES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 37W-42W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1137.shtml?

[HURAKAN]

Somebody is watching me!!

Can we get the title changed to something more appropriate? Thanks

[Weatherfreak000]

Nice vorticity associated with this area. It's very broad.



I wonder which wave the NOGAPS is developing. The one already in the caribbean or the wave at 40W? If someone could confirm that'd be helpful

[Ivanhater]

Changed title, getting difficult to keep up with all these waves Africa is spitting out!

This is looking like a player

[Hurricane]

Changed title, getting difficult to keep up with all these waves Africa is spitting out!

This is looking like a player

I'm confused which wave is which... Is this the thread for the huge wave with nice convection that has already emerged??

[cycloneye]

Changed title, getting difficult to keep up with all these waves Africa is spitting out!

This is looking like a player

We are expecting plenty of rain as it moves thru the NE Caribbean this weekend. More than that is the question.

[cycloneye]

Changed title, getting difficult to keep up with all these waves Africa is spitting out!

This is looking like a player

I'm confused which wave is which... Is this the thread for the huge wave with nice convection that has already emerged??

That one has a thread made by me.

[somethingfunny]

Why not put the date the wave emerged from Africa in the thread title?

[KWT]

I've gotta admit I really don't see this one getting going, sure it does have spotty convection, any turning is very broad and very weak and there is a heck of alot of dry air about still, its going to have to mix it out all on its own, which will take a few days.

[fwbbreeze]

Why not put the date the wave emerged from Africa in the thread title?

This

[hurricaneCW]

This one is gaining potential, and it's definitely something to watch. The moist air is building around it and it is beginning to pop.

[Ivanhater]

Closest wave to the Islands

[KWT]

Some convection is at least an improvement with this wave, still looks a little on the spotty side mind you and the turning is really unimpressive looking at the loops, its there but its weak. Still its a start I suppose and Bonnie got going in worse conditions...I'd personally put the chances of it developing at something like 10% in the next 48hrs...could end up warranting attention from the NHC soon.

[alienstorm]

The popcorn pattern of convention is always a sign of future potential. Time will tell..

[rolltide]

The popcorn pattern of convention is always a sign of future potential. Time will tell..

I agree. I've seen it many times in the past. It may take a while to come together but I think this has a decent chance to be a player in the next few days.

[rolltide]

Can someone post the shear forecast this will run into over the next 3-5 days?

[Aric Dunn]

well after looking at the system today there is some interesting aspects to it. but what will be more interesting is tomorrow when it approaches the support aloft closer to the islands. as with many waves like this to needs some real upper support to get convection to build. the aspect that is in favor for the wave is that there is already a little rotation ( very broad of course) but on the other hand if it does not get going before the eastern Caribbean than it will likely have to wait the western carrib and if it takes a track towards the NE carrib and north of PR ( more likely ) than things could get interesting. this is of course dependent on it gaining some organization. I give it no more than 10% very similar to the wave that eventually became Bonnie was in this area.

[cycloneye]

No mention at the 8 PM TWO.