Global model runs discussion

[KWT]

Well the 12z is running so looks like we finally have the para as the new op...

[Riptide]

Well the 12z is running so looks like we finally have the para as the new op...

It appears the para is still developing the CV Tropical Wave.

[KWT]

A fairly decent looking wave from the complex just leaving Africa now, will see but I think we could at least have a contender with this.

[Riptide]

What is going on with the new GFS? It keeps developing multiple surface lows over the same disturbance, no more convective feedback issues?



Edit:Wow, it is forming MCS in the doldrums along the equator

[RL3AO]

Good video from Bastardi.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/248222170001/energy-pro-tropical.asp?channel=vbbastaj

He points out that looking at individual storms 15 days out is useless, but looking at the overall patter has some merit.

[KWT]

THe 12z GFS doesn;t really produce anything but it does have some fairly strong waves, still looks mighty suspect with regards to some convective feedback from what this run does though I've gotta admit.

[Riptide]

Can some explain what is going on in this 384 hr panel? Particularly near Western Africa.

[Wx_Warrior]

First guess would be it's 384h.

[Riptide]

First guess would be it's 384h.

Just worrying about the possible fact that we won't have a reliable American model this tropical season.

[tolakram]

First guess would be it's 384h.

Just worrying about the possible fact that we won't have a reliable American model this tropical season.

None of the models are reliable that far out.

[tolakram]

CMC 12z completely loses the storm is had predicted for 72h and now predicts another to form in 90 hours. Junk

[Riptide]

First guess would be it's 384h.

Just worrying about the possible fact that we won't have a reliable American model this tropical season.

None of the models are reliable that far out.

You are correct but whatever the GFS has tried doing at 384 is meteorologically impossible, probably the most ridiculous model run ever.

[KWT]

The 384hrs just shows a very northerly and pretty strong wave coming off...I'd bet that would dive WSW with the Azores high to its north...but 20N for a wave coming off Africa would be a little bit surprising.

[srainhoutx]

Think synoptic pattern folks. The guidance is beginning to sniff out development and a change in the pattern. Enjoy the quiet weekend. It may be the last one for a long time IMO.

[Big O]

Would someone post a link to the extended range (days 7-10) Canadian model?

[Frank2]

He (JB) points out that looking at individual storms 15 days out is useless, but looking at the overall patter has some merit.

Finally - something of his that I can agree with!!!

[KWT]

Think synoptic pattern folks. The guidance is beginning to sniff out development and a change in the pattern. Enjoy the quiet weekend. It may be the last one for a long time IMO.

Oh without a doubt, I think the 2nd half of August will be when things really crack on (its why I think we will have 3/4 storms rather then more this August, simply because it doesn't kick in till the 10-15th) still as I said sometimes these systems form in otherwise not quite so favourable conditions, as we saw with Bonnie.

We've reached the stage where every wave needs to be watched.

[Frank2]

The 384hrs just shows a very northerly and pretty strong wave coming off...I'd bet that would dive WSW with the Azores high to its north...but 20N for a wave coming off Africa would be a little bit surprising.

Some waves have been coming off at pretty high latitudes, though others haven't, but what to watch for is any sign of a trough just off the coast, similar to last year...

[srainhoutx]

Would someone post a link to the extended range (days 7-10) Canadian model?

The only 'longer range' Canadian Model I am aware of is the Ensembles. Some one correct me if I am wrong.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/charts/index_e.html

[KWT]

Indeed Frank, but as I'm sure you may have noticed I think a trough is the worst case because the strong ridging has thus far shunted everything southwards, all a trough would likely do (at least say ther 20-30th of September) is impart enough of a NW motion to force the system either into the Caribbean islands, or towards the Se states/Gulf.

I suspect looking at the models that is what will occur, and we will have 3 main tracks this year, one through the Caribbean towards the Yucatan, second would be up through E.Caribbean and towards the Se/E US and the final one out to sea. Thats what I've noticed on the models in the last week or two in terms of steering.

CMC does go out to 240hrs, can't remember where it was located though...