Breaking news:Models iniciate at 26.1n future track ???

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 7:43 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03081400

These are the 00:00 UTC models update and are more north and this have implications on track.

Stormsfury · #2 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 7:48 pm

Actually those are the 0000UTC tropical models ... anyways, that's big news... the LLS down south is no longer an entity ...

SF

chadtm80 · #3 Postby **chadtm80** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 7:51 pm

Put up a new map in another thread

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 7:53 pm

Thanks Stormsfury posting this news rapidly I put the 18z but I edited it.

#5 Postby **Steve** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 8:00 pm

Definitely changes things for the Texas coast and would lead to a much more northern hit than what I was thinking - though I was thinking Texas more than Mexico all along.

It's going to be a fight though. That ULL is much stronger (as someone said earlier this week) than what some of the models had given it credit for. It almost looks like the former LLC is its lunch.

Interesting.

Steve

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 8:23 pm

This change is a new ballgame in terms of the track is concerned.

#7 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 9:09 pm

Notice, too, that the 00Z DSHIPS continues a trend of a lower intensity forecast. Now only 64kts at landfall. It will be really hard for this storm to get its act together while zipping across the Gulf at around 15-20kts between a strong ridge to the north and a strong upper low to the south.

ColdFront77 · #8 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 9:14 pm

An upper level low in the Bay of Campeche would have a flow out of the southwest across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

#9 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 9:22 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:An upper level low in the Bay of Campeche would have a flow out of the southwest across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

I'm not sure what you mean. The upper low will be moving west into the BOC directly south of the storm - keeping easterly winds across the storm. By the time the ULL reaches the Bay of Campeche, the storm will be inland into Mexico or Texas. But at that time (landfall) the upper ridge over Texas should be producing NE-ENE winds along the TX coast aloft.

ColdFront77 · #10 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 9:28 pm

Sorry, I was joining the general circulation behind an (upper level) low and the geography of the Bay of Campeche, Gulf of Mexico and Gulf coastal areas with system in the Bahamas now.

There typically is a southwest flow on the southeast side of a low; the counter-clockwise circulation creating that southwest flow.

Breaking news:Models iniciate at 26.1n future track ???

Breaking news:Models iniciate at 26.1n future track ???

Notice, too

Not sure

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