Wave WSW of CV Islands

[cycloneye]

The latest. It has gained more convection in the past few hours.

[Weatherfreak000]

No question, the MDR region has gotten more conducive this past week, markedly so in fact. We have model guidance suggesting a quick jump to Colin here, danielle in the W. Carr and strong TW action going right into August.


The only thing im worried about is the distance the blob of convection managed to make before the wave even started emerging off Africa. These situations are really tricky. It makes me nervous for development because we have another solid 36 hours until they begin interacting.

[KWT]

Most models do seem to develop this system, the 12z ECM will be very interesting to see whether it develops it or not...

The track is still too early to call, depends on how long it takes to get going really as well and detach itself from the ITCZ, I'd imagine the track will take it close to the N.Caribbean region though eventually...

[Ivanhater]

I'm getting really confused about where the models are being posted, the 12z runs are still impressed with this region. It still seems as I pointed out last night, the blob and this wave merge to form this system...In review, the trend has been for a stronger system

Euro up next

12z model rundown

Canadian



GFS



NOGAPS

[Weatherfreak000]

Models showing Colin and Danielle to start August

[vbhoutex]

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/922/13594621.gif

What is pathetic is the lack of precipitation over Africa. Not a lot to work with unless it wets up a lot in the next couple of weeks.

[Weatherfreak000]

2 areas in TWO now. NHC woke up.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

The GFS track looks decent enough, the CMC is further north and thats because a weak disturbance zips off towards the UK and helps to induce a north of WNW track. Whilst its early there does seem to be a chance of a SE/E coast threat, but expect that to be slowly shifted westwards, esp if it takes it time to develop.

[TheBurn]

[Macrocane]

It seems that someone has the finger ready to turn on the switch. Development is more likely now that the GFS is on board, let's see what the Euro has on the 12z run with this wave and the one near the Antilles.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA LOCATED FROM
16N19W TO 9N15W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE DAKAR SENEGAL UPPER AIR
SOUNDING INDICATED THE WAVE RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH AT THE LOWER
LEVELS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 10N-14N
WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE WAVE
AXIS OVER THE SW PENINSULA OF SENEGAL.

[KWT]

Well at least we have a 20% risk at long last, it was like the NHC just fell asleep and have finally switched back on again!

The wave has come off Africa now and we shall see if the wave catches up with the convective blob or not...

[Blown Away]

The GFS track looks decent enough, the CMC is further north and thats because a weak disturbance zips off towards the UK and helps to induce a north of WNW track. Whilst its early there does seem to be a chance of a SE/E coast threat, but expect that to be slowly shifted westwards, esp if it takes it time to develop.

Looking at the CMC & GFS end runs is the high building in or weakening? Looks like the there is alot of weakness along the EC to allow a recurve? Curious what your seeing to think possible EC threat?

[Ivanhater]

The GFS track looks decent enough, the CMC is further north and thats because a weak disturbance zips off towards the UK and helps to induce a north of WNW track. Whilst its early there does seem to be a chance of a SE/E coast threat, but expect that to be slowly shifted westwards, esp if it takes it time to develop.

Looking at the CMC & GFS end runs is the high building in or weakening? Looks like the there is alot of weakness along the EC to allow a recurve? Curious what your seeing to think possible EC threat?

Last night, the Euro was building the ridge back by day 10. All of the models in the long range build the ridge back in force then at the very end ride it up the east coast, but that is waaaaaay out in time so like always this early, Mexico to Maine

All depending on if we get a storm out of this, but my money is on yes.

[KWT]

The GFS takes the system towards Florida, it seems to me like the models take this one WNW, there does look like there will be some sort of weakness close to the east coast but much depends on how much latitude it gains between say 40-60W. The CMC sure is keen on gaining latitude thats for sure!

[cycloneye]

While 90L gets the attention now, this wave has slowly gained a lot of convection. The big question is if this wave will merge with 90L as some models are showing or stays as a separated entity. It will be facinating to watch how all of this plays out in the next couple of days.

[KWT]

I'd imagine it will merge with time because the vortex with 90L has barely moved in the last few hours.

[cycloneye]

8 PM discussion

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING
FROM 17N19W TO 8N15W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE DAKAR SENEGAL
UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED THE WAVE PASSED THROUGH AT THE
LOWER LEVELS ABOUT 18 HOURS AGO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-15N.

[TheBurn]

[HURAKAN]

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