ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

The 12z runs are still impressed with this region. It still seems as I pointed out last night, the blob and this wave merge to form this system...In review, the trend has been for a stronger system

Euro up next

12z model rundown

Canadian



GFS



NOGAPS

[ronjon]

12Z GFS:

[Ivanhater]

So far, 12 Euro is out to 144 hours. Seems about the same strength as last night's run at this time as it waited to develop it.

However, the ridge looks stronger so far and is further south



Something is fishy about the 12z Euro runs..every 12z run wants to drop it after the 00z run wants to make a hurricane.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro drops it once again just like yesterday and the day before. For the past two days the 00z run has picked it back up. Now that this is tagged, I think the Euro will lock on for good with better initialization...

Of greater importance, the ridge breaks down a good bit on this run and seems to be the consensus this far out, but then again it is the long range so will probably change...

[KWT]

Still a decent wave on this run, looks about the same strength the ECM had with Bonnie so you could easily make an arguement for some development.

That being said the GFS/ECM really aren't that keen on this one considering everything but that maybe partly because of the uncertainty with the other wave.

ECM and GFS track is pretty much identical, a stronger system probably would end up a little further north like the CMC.

[cycloneye]

First Tropical Models for 90L

Ship up to 81kts.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 291859
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1859 UTC THU JUL 29 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100729 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100729  1800   100730  0600   100730  1800   100731  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     8.5N  30.0W    8.5N  31.1W    8.6N  32.4W    8.9N  33.7W
BAMD     8.5N  30.0W    8.4N  31.3W    8.7N  32.6W    9.2N  33.8W
BAMM     8.5N  30.0W    8.5N  31.2W    8.8N  32.4W    9.3N  33.7W
LBAR     8.5N  30.0W    8.2N  32.5W    8.5N  35.5W    9.1N  38.5W
SHIP        20KTS          25KTS          32KTS          43KTS
DSHP        20KTS          25KTS          32KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100731  1800   100801  1800   100802  1800   100803  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.2N  35.0W    9.6N  38.4W   11.0N  43.8W   13.9N  51.1W
BAMD     9.9N  35.5W   11.1N  39.6W   12.6N  44.9W   15.1N  50.7W
BAMM     9.8N  35.3W   10.3N  39.3W   11.1N  44.8W   13.2N  51.3W
LBAR    10.1N  41.9W   11.6N  48.4W   12.1N  54.0W   14.4N  57.0W
SHIP        54KTS          72KTS          80KTS          81KTS
DSHP        54KTS          72KTS          80KTS          81KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   8.5N LONCUR =  30.0W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =   9.5N LONM12 =  27.0W DIRM12 = 256DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  10.0N LONM24 =  23.6W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[Ivanhater]

Still a decent wave on this run, looks about the same strength the ECM had with Bonnie so you could easily make an arguement for some development.

That being said the GFS/ECM really aren't that keen on this one considering everything but that maybe partly because of the uncertainty with the other wave.

ECM and GFS track is pretty much identical, a stronger system probably would end up a little further north like the CMC.

The GFS is really keen on developing this when you look at the 850 vort. The problem is the surface reflection because of the dry bias the new GFS has.

[cycloneye]

Now we will get the GFDL and HWRF later today to see the tracks and intensities.

[ROCK]

90L is finally here....and I was enjoying the sleep......Not sure why the ECM is dropping it after 3 runs now. Tonights run will be different IMO......have to agree on consensus so far...this one is really far east and we are prone to ridge weakness in these long trackers.

however the longer it takes to develope the more west I would think....here are the current steering layers....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[cycloneye]

[Ivanhater]

Here is a great disco about the new GFS and the dry bias

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
836 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A NEW GFS
BECAME OPERATIONAL DURING THE 12 UTC CYCLE YESTERDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS IT RESOLVES A TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE TUTT ALOFT IS TO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO SURGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY IN THE CYCLE...BUT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING THE PWS ARE TO DROP. IN CONTRAST TO THE OLD GFS...THE NEW
ONE DOES NOT FORESEE MUCH MOISTURE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND. AT LOW LEVELS THIS NEW MODEL SEEMS TO BE
HAVING PROBLEMS WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES...AS IT IS NOT RESOLVING THESE WAVES TO THEIR FULL
EXTENT. I AM LOOKING FOR ANOTHER ALTERNATIVE TO THIS MODEL...AND
COMPLETELY OPEN TO SUGGESTIONS.

THE NEW MODEL IS VERY DRY BIASED...AND THIS SEEMS TO BE HAVING AN
IMPACT ON THE REGIONAL NAM...AS IT DEPENDS ON THE GFS TO
INITIALIZE THE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. EXCEPT FOR SOME CONVECTION
TODAY...BOTH MODELS THEN TREND TOWARDS A VERY DRY PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT THREE TO FOUR DAYS. THE ECMWF IS NOT ANY BETTER...AS IT ALSO
SHOWS LIGHT RAINFALL PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH BEST
CHANCE OF WEATHER LATE ON MONDAY.

CONSIDERING THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND IMPACT OF
DIURNAL HEATING...WILL LIKELY SEE MORE CONVECTION THAN WHAT THESE
MODELS SHOW.

[KWT]

Yeah that is very true Ivanhater the Vort imagery is decent, I wouldn't say its a strong development but certainly a closed system would result from that.

Pretty agressive first SHIPS run, wonder whether the GFDL will lose it first run like it normally does?!

[Ivanhater]

All intensity models take this to Hurricane status

AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, SHIP, 0, 85N, 300W, 20, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, SHIP, 12, 85N, 312W, 25, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, SHIP, 24, 88N, 324W, 32, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, SHIP, 36, 93N, 337W, 43, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, SHIP, 48, 98N, 353W, 54, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, SHIP, 60, 101N, 371W, 64, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, SHIP, 72, 103N, 393W, 72, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, SHIP, 84, 105N, 418W, 78, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, SHIP, 96, 111N, 448W, 80, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, SHIP, 108, 120N, 479W, 81, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, SHIP, 120, 132N, 513W, 81, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, LGEM, 0, 85N, 300W, 20, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, LGEM, 12, 85N, 312W, 22, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, LGEM, 24, 88N, 324W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, LGEM, 36, 93N, 337W, 33, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, LGEM, 48, 98N, 353W, 40, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, LGEM, 60, 101N, 371W, 49, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, LGEM, 72, 103N, 393W, 59, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, LGEM, 84, 105N, 418W, 69, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, LGEM, 96, 111N, 448W, 77, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, LGEM, 108, 120N, 479W, 83, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, LGEM, 120, 132N, 513W, 86, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, IVCN, 0, 0N, 0W, 20, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, IVCN, 12, 0N, 0W, 24, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, IVCN, 24, 0N, 0W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, IVCN, 36, 0N, 0W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, IVCN, 48, 0N, 0W, 47, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, IVCN, 60, 0N, 0W, 57, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, IVCN, 72, 0N, 0W, 66, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, IVCN, 84, 0N, 0W, 74, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, IVCN, 96, 0N, 0W, 79, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, IVCN, 108, 0N, 0W, 82, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, 03, IVCN, 120, 0N, 0W, 84, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Aric Dunn]

well I guess we are all going to sleep deprived if this thing gets going... lol nothing new i guess but figured I would remind every in hopes you forget your normal lives.... although this could be your normal lives.. lol

[Ivanhater]

I take the Euro comments back..It still develops it, just can't see it on the low resolution graphics.


much further south on this run aiming at S. Florida

[brunota2003]

Looking at that, I think it is going to do similar to Hugo (scare the crap out of SFL) before turning north...in the model run.

[hurricaneCW]

So will it develop this far south like Ivan did or does it have to gain latitude first. The BAM models are clearly showing a rather strong weakness developing in the West Atlantic and that's why I don't think this one is going into the Caribbean.

[StormClouds63]

What do you think, IvanHater? Looks like at least 50/50 chance of a fish w/90L?

[KWT]

Agreed Hurricanecw, in fact I think the current models aren't too bad a guide, it could end up running through the E.Caribbean before aiming towards the SE/E coast of the states but its hard to say as its just too far out really.

IF it does fish, its not going to do so without giving the east coast a brush IMO...

[Macrocane]

12z Euro drops it once again just like yesterday and the day before. For the past two days the 00z run has picked it back up. Now that this is tagged, I think the Euro will lock on for good with better initialization...

You're right I don't know why but the Euro is always more bullish on intensity on the 00z runs, the CMC does the opposite and is more bullish on the 12z run although the difference between runs is not as much as the Euro runs.