ATL : INVEST 90L - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, here we go. Colin here?

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007291855
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010072918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010072818, , BEST, 0, 100N, 236W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072900, , BEST, 0, 98N, 254W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072906, , BEST, 0, 95N, 270W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072912, , BEST, 0, 90N, 285W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010072918, , BEST, 0, 85N, 300W, 20, 1010, DB

[somethingfunny]

Egads! Season cancel cancel!

[HURAKAN]

Long tracker

[Ivanhater]

Good lord, things are moving fast today!

I'll repost here

So far, 12 Euro is out to 144 hours. Seems about the same strength as last night's run at this time as it waited to develop it.

However, the ridge looks stronger so far and is further south

[MWatkins]

If this wave, or the wave behind it develops, we will have a very early start to the Cape Verde part of the season indeed.

MW

[Ivanhater]

[ConvergenceZone]

long trackers are the best!
It will be interesting to see if this is Colon

[Ivanhater]

[Cryomaniac]

long trackers are the best!
It will be interesting to see if this is Colon

I don't know about Colon, but maybe Colin!!!

This reminded me of a scene in one of the Discworld novels where the Sgt (Called "Colon") takes temporary charge of the city watch, and annoys everyone, so they go on strike, leading one of them to chant "Colon, Colon, Colon, Out, Out, Out!". Until someone else comments: "Don't say that Reg, sounds like surgery".

Anyway, back to 90L, it looks good, but could still be in the ITCZ.

[KWT]

Whilst this has got invested here given the fact it is going to wait for the wave axis to come along any development isn't likely too soon IMO, probably not going to get going till past 50W IMO.

[Hurricane]

Why did this get named 90L and not 100L?

[KWT]

They reset to 90 once 99 is reached Hurricane.

Whilst its a long way down the line I suspect if it strengthens quicker then some of the models expect an east coast/E.Canada risk is more likely but if it stays weak then a Bonnie type track upto Florida is certainly a risk IMO.

[srainhoutx]

Why did this get named 90L and not 100L?

The 90's are used as Invests. We start at 90 and go through 99 and then repeat back to 90 and so on.

[KWT]

Looking at the image Ivanhater posted earlier, you can even see the turning on the static image a little to the east of where the NHC estimated it would be....its quite some way ahead of the wave though, the convection had best take its time and allow the wave to catch up if we are to see development in any quick pace.

Probably not going to see much development till 50-60W though IMO.

[cycloneye]

Ivanhater, so now this system has becomed the primary one that the models latch to or still the wave just off the African Coast has support?

[brunota2003]

Nice...I turn my back on the tropics for a few days, thinking things are nice and quiet and BOOM, two yellows...including one that looks like it will develop.

Remember folks, two yellow cards equal a red card!

[Riptide]

Ivanhater, so now this system has becomed the primary one that the models latch to or still the wave just off the African Coast has support?

Perhaps both systems will develop? I think this would be especially possible if 90L forms a LLC within the next 12 hours.

[Cuber]

Why did this get named 90L and not 100L?

The 90's are used as Invests. We start at 90 and go through 99 and then repeat back to 90 and so on.

I've been watching here for five years and STILL learning the reasoning and terminology and now I've learned something new again today ... the question is will I remember it tomorrow? Thank you all for answered questions.

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater, so now this system has becomed the primary one that the models latch to or still the wave just off the African Coast has support?

Luis, I was analyzing all the 00z model runs last night and the WRF model oddly enough shed light on what was going on. Both features merge into this system. It looks like 90L will pretty much stall before it starts lifting out (which is why we are seeing the SW motion on XTRAP), then the African wave catches up and then starts to wrap up.

[HurrMark]

This is in a fairly favorable environment, and there seems to be some sort of spin...I would definitely not say development is imminent, but there is a decent possibility of something popping up this weekend.

Long-term, it seems there will be some persistent troughiness along the east coast...although the magnitude of it may decrease in time. It is hard to say if this means a recurve or not, but we will have to see how the models trend in the coming days before we are more clear-cut on this...