ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

As of now, I don't think this is a fish. Models are really fighting to rebuild the ridge which makes sense in this La nina year. As far as landfall points, put down your bets

[cycloneye]

As of now, I don't think this is a fish. Models are really fighting to rebuild the ridge which makes sense in this La nina year. As far as landfall points, put down your bets

And if that occurs, I may have to make last minute preparations.

[Ivanhater]

As of now, I don't think this is a fish. Models are really fighting to rebuild the ridge which makes sense in this La nina year. As far as landfall points, put down your bets

And if that occurs, I may have to make last minute preparations.

No doubt the Northern Islands are at the highest risk right now, I'm sure NWS PR will be all over this now that it has been tagged...

[Aric Dunn]

As of now, I don't think this is a fish. Models are really fighting to rebuild the ridge which makes sense in this La nina year. As far as landfall points, put down your bets

And if that occurs, I may have to make last minute preparations.

yeah you are in the main firing line.. as for a fish storm i highly doubt it. The Bermuda high has been extremely persistent thus far and the east coast of the US is still extremely hot very similar to 2004 tracks is a distinct possibility

[Blown Away]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

Notice how the BAMS really accelerate 90L in a few days, I don't see what will cause that? Being at such a low latitude 90L will really have to climb to fully recurve before the islands. Whatever weakness is pulling 90L NW as it near the islands will have to hang out for a long time with all that latitude to climb. I hope that high isn't building in at the end run!

[KWT]

As of now, I don't think this is a fish. Models are really fighting to rebuild the ridge which makes sense in this La nina year. As far as landfall points, put down your bets

I'll go with a Floyd type track for now

Seriously though your right the models do seem quite keen on trying to build an upper ridge out in the W.atlantic and whilst the models don't make this a strong feature in La Nina's, esp deepening ones, these can become quite impressive...

BA, I think the models do develop a weak low pressure system which may well stem from an upper feature which is what helps to lift the system out as far as it does...that being said its awfully far south right now.

[StormClouds63]

As of now, I don't think this is a fish. Models are really fighting to rebuild the ridge which makes sense in this La nina year. As far as landfall points, put down your bets

You're pretty good, Ivan, but it looks like the models are picking up a weakness in that ridge. Will the ridge build back in place or perhaps a relatively weak system stays in the westward flow? I don't think so.

Colin probably won't be a fish, but I think that weakness will permit the storm to gain latitude. I say a somewhat close call for the U.S. East Coast, skirting the outer North Carolina Banks as a category 1 or 2 hurricane.

My bet is now placed, so if I'm right you owe me a Diet Dr. Pepper.

[Ivanhater]

As of now, I don't think this is a fish. Models are really fighting to rebuild the ridge which makes sense in this La nina year. As far as landfall points, put down your bets

You're pretty good, Ivan, but it looks like the models are picking up a weakness in that ridge. Will the ridge build back in place or perhaps a relatively weak system stays in the westward flow? I don't think so.

Colin probably won't be a fish, but I think that weakness will permit the storm to gain latitude. I say a somewhat close call for the U.S. East Coast, skirting the outer North Carolina Banks as a category 1 or 2 hurricane.

My bet is now placed, so if I'm right you owe me a Diet Dr. Pepper.

Sounds reasonable, we have plenty of time to watch this one.

I'll even throw in a pack of Mountain dew

[Blown Away]

As of now, I don't think this is a fish. Models are really fighting to rebuild the ridge which makes sense in this La nina year. As far as landfall points, put down your bets

I'll go with a Floyd type track for now

Seriously though your right the models do seem quite keen on trying to build an upper ridge out in the W.atlantic and whilst the models don't make this a strong feature in La Nina's, esp deepening ones, these can become quite impressive...

BA, I think the models do develop a weak low pressure system which may well stem from an upper feature which is what helps to lift the system out as far as it does...that being said its awfully far south right now.

Exactly, that weakness would have to be there for a long time to pull 90L far enough NW to recurve before the islands. We have seen many times systems get pulled NW from a very low latitude and the weakness is not in place long enough to recurve before a building ridge takes over and drives it back to the west.

[Big O]

As of now, I don't think this is a fish. Models are really fighting to rebuild the ridge which makes sense in this La nina year. As far as landfall points, put down your bets

It is way too early to speculate on landfall, but if one takes the European verbatim, it would imply a hit on SE Florida and a possible track into the GOM. If this occurs, the next question is the ridge orientation. Will it promote a WNW heading into LA/AL/MS or will it track due west or WSW towards TX or Mexico? Of course, this could develop relatively quickly and head out to sea, but I don't believe that at this moment. I favor a position just north of PR in 6-7 days, after that its anyone's guess.

[KWT]

Exactly, that weakness would have to be there for a long time to pull 90L far enough NW to recurve before the islands. We have seen many times systems get pulled NW from a very low latitude and the weakness is not in place long enough to recurve before a building ridge takes over and drives it back to the west.

Thats what I think, unless this one doesn't develop then it'll probably head into the Caribbean on the northern side of the sea, but for now the models seem pretty keen on a region just to the north of the islands.

[brunota2003]

I actually think Georgia (looking at the set up on the model) could be at risk if that were to come true. It shoots N/NW for the weakness, only to be shoved west again, provided the ridge can rebuild.

[Ivanhater]

[brunota2003]

I like seeing images, not the word "image"...lmao! Looking at the quote, there is no .jpg or .gif

[Aric Dunn]

UKMET

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKTR ... kloop.html

[Ivanhater]

I like seeing images, not the word "image"...lmao! Looking at the quote, there is no .jpg or .gif

It is showing up on my end. Anyone else having a problem?

[srainhoutx]

I like seeing images, not the word "image"...lmao! Looking at the quote, there is no .jpg or .gif

It is showing up on my end. Anyone else having a problem?

No.

[cycloneye]

I see this=x

[brunota2003]

[img]http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=202435[img]

That is the URL my comp is trying to see (which, BTW, when I post it into my browser, I am told I am "forbidden" from accessing)

And also, it is not a .jpg or .gif link, so the image tags won't work, they'll just show the text "image"

[Ivanhater]

That should fix it...