ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

Ivan,
Can u tell the strength of the low on the GFS run?

After reading the issues with the dry biased and surface wind issues, I think the GFS is certainly showing a Hurricane. It's a shame the new GFS is off by 20 knots or more on the surface winds...

[KWT]

The GFS shows a stronger surface reflection this run as well, tracking NW between 168-180hrs which prevents it from hitting Hispaniola and Cuba...it looks like it'll ve a close run thing as to whether it is a threat to the US on this run.

[lonelymike]

Ivan,
Can u tell the strength of the low on the GFS run?

After reading the issues with the dry biased and surface wind issues, I think the GFS is certainly showing a Hurricane. It's a shame the new GFS is off by 20 knots or more on the surface winds...

Indeed. Pity they couldn't have worked out these problems beforehand. If I understand it right the GFDL and HRWF run off some of the GFS information....great

[Ivanhater]

Exactly Mike

312 hours after stalling off the coast of Florida...this will be a fun one to track

[xcool22]

I'm not putting much faith in gfs

[lonelymike]

312 hours...Granny must be driving

[Ivanhater]

Wrap up...


1. Clips the NE Islands
2. Moves NW into a weakness
3. Shoved back west under great upper level conditions near the Bahamas
4. Stalls
5. Rounds the High into South Carolina

In summary, get ready for a busy week!

[KWT]

Well when I said a Floyd type track I didn't thuink the GFS was going to show a very similar set-up afterwards!

Anyway the 18z GFS pretty much stalls the system close to the Gulf stream as the upper high weakens but at the same time the upper trough isn't strong enough to lift it out.

Enough of a weakness between 144-180hrs to avoid the system from hitting Hispaniola/Cuba, thats the first key thing to watch if this one gets going.
If the 18z came off, expect a possible major from that solution....

[cycloneye]

You have to add 20kts to the GFS runs as we know the issues it has.

[srainhoutx]

While it is fun to speculate, I put little faith in ULL/TUTT features via guidance.

[KWT]

Yeah I've seen the models make numerous really bad calls with regards to the upper atmospheric conditions, even more so when the resolution goes down hill past 192hrs now.

[Ivanhater]

18z NOGAPS, has another substantial system, but further south than the GFS

If you can't see image, your browser is blocking it.

[Ivanhater]

HWRF strong Hurricane

[Patrick99]

The ultimate resolution here is wayyyyy too far out to express with any certainty. lol

[KWT]

That is indeed a pretty impressive system the HWRF has but to be honest it looks a bit too agressive with the strength forecast and therefore it probably won't get as far north as that model progs from that position.

[jlauderdal]

This one long range looks like a threat to the east coast of Florida.

we will be more than happy to be in a bullseye 96 hrs and beyond and that is any model and any track including NHC

[jlauderdal]

That is indeed a pretty impressive system the HWRF has but to be honest it looks a bit too agressive with the strength forecast and therefore it probably won't get as far north as that model progs from that position.

HWRF= Way Overdone almost always

[Ivanhater]

Doesn't look like the GFDL is going to be out this go round. Not coming out on the FSU site yet anyway.

[Ivanhater]

HWRF extended...CAT 3

[Ivanhater]

GFDL shows a strong Hurricane as well