ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

Yep, looks like a fish

[xcool22]

I'm totally lost on forecast models &

[cheezyWXguy]

wow looks like the hwrf updated...looks even stronger and slightly further west.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL: Fail

[Ivanhater]

Euro out to 120 hours and is stronger...go figure

[xcool22]

haha

[Ivanhater]

144..looks like a Caribbean runner

[Ivanhater]

That throws a wrench in it, doesn't it

[Wx_Warrior]

That's a new one....ha....this little diddy has been all over the map.

[South Texas Storms]

i know its far away...but based on those steering currents in 240 hours on the euro is this looking like a west gulf system or east gulf? or is it too far away to tell yet?

[Ivanhater]

i know its far away...but based on those steering currents in 240 hours on the euro is this looking like a west gulf system or east gulf? or is it too far away to tell yet?

No one knows if this even hits the Islands..no one is going to be able to answer your question right now

[lonelymike]

Guess it kinda depends on the high pressure. Euro keeps it pumped up so if the high verifies another Central Amercia/Yucatan/WGOM problem. Not that I'm complaining

[Wx_Warrior]

Agree with Iv...way too far out for any verification on anything at this moment.

[South Texas Storms]

yeah i guess we will just have to watch and wait...it looks like any type of u.s./mex landfall would be in the 10-16 day period.

[wxman22]

Major switch although not that surprising as the models are taking the system too far to the north like others im expecting other models to follow over the next couple of days.(even though im not quite sure yet if the system will take that much of a westward track.)

[KWT]

Some of those models are looking too far north, conditions aloft don't look all that great between 50-65W unless this stays super far south.

The CMC looks WAY too far north given this one is going to struggle to get established for a little while yet, any model north of the islands before 60W is probably going to have trouble...

I like the ECM track though I think it may well end yp a little further north then it shows.

[Vortmax1]

Yeah, that ECM track almost looks too far South to me. But certainly a better track than the CMC way North like that. The ECM is forecasting a stronger high while the CMC is shrinking it up a bit during the same time period.
I don't like the thought of this one running the Carib like the ECM has it...that usually means a big headache on the other end...wherever that might be.

Well we certainly have plenty of time to follow this one.

[KWT]

The CMC is well north of the ECM, big difference thats for sure. The ECM would take a classic La nina track into the Yucatan then towards Mexico.

[Vortmax1]

This is from yesterday afternoon.
I didn't see it posted but if it was please delete.



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
223 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

NOTE TO ALL USERS. STARTING AT 12 UTC YESTERDAY...A NEW GFS MODEL
CAME INTO EFFECT. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SHOWS IMPROVEMENTS ON
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ACROSS MID LATITUDES...WE NOTED SOME
DEGRADATION ON THE WIND FORECAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHERE IT TENDS TO UNDER FORECAST INTENSITY OF
THE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TRADE WIND SURGES BELOW 700 HPA. THE
ERROR/ DIFFERENCE FROM ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS CAN BE AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS. THIS IS A SYSTEMATIC PROBLEM WITH THE MODEL AND EXPECT IT
TO RECUR.

[ronjon]

Well I see last nights model runs are all over the place with the long term track. My take, along with others, is that the system will be slower to organize and thus stay on a more southerly path across the Atlantic. I don't buy the extreme southern position of the Euro as the upper air pattern even in the Euro doesn't support it being that far south. Interesting that the GFS kinda dropped the system but kept the vorticity at 850 mb - which it brings through the FL straits/SF into the GOM in the long range. Too early to speculate on the long term track - the LA need to pay special attention here as at least the NE islands may be at risk in 5 days.