ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

144..Clipping the NE Islands

[Riptide]

The GFS passes it through the Hebert Box!

[Vortex]

18Z GFS forecasted synoptic environment certainly implies a potential threat towards the Leeward islands, PR, Bahamas, and possibly the SE US coast/FL down the road...Also, if this system begins to gel in 2-3 days conditions environmentally appear quite favorable(upper air charts/SST's) for a significant system as it approaches the islands...Stay tuned...

[Ivanhater]

162...I wish the models would be consistent...drop it or develop it!

[Vortex]

GFS Hour 162 approaching SE bahamas with very favorable atmospheric conditions...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

[KWT]

The key difference is not the conditions but instead the system actually gels together this time round rather then having 2 moderate Vorts like it had in the 12z run.

[Ivanhater]

180...Bahama Bomber

[Vortex]

Extremely favorable environment...lets hope this doesnt verify for those in the bahamas, Florida, and possibly Gulf.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

[Ivanhater]

Resolution went to crap after 192 hours naturally, but gets pushed SW over cuba

[Ivanhater]

Don't know why it gets pushed SW though...no monster ridge over it

[KWT]

Yeah it does actually get fairly strong but it doesn't reflect all that well on the surface pressure maps.

System comes very close to a Cuba landfall this run...

[Ivanhater]

Drops it in the Gulf with an anticyclone over it

[ConvergenceZone]

Great job with the model maps Michael. Keep em comin.....
I would be absolutely shocked if something doesn't develop over the next 7 days.... Especially in a really active year.

[bvigal]

GFS?? Holy crap, Batman!

144..Clipping the NE Islands

[KWT]

I'd like to see just a little more model consensus, they seem to be really all over the place with how the waves are going to interact and if they merge. If they don't interact and merge well enough to a single system then it probably will have a hard time developing as they will be both competing looking at the models that haven't developed it.

[lonelymike]

Drops it in the Gulf with an anticyclone over it

Right..... I'm boarding up already

[Ivanhater]

The new GFS is giving me headaches, the surface reflection does not coincide with the 850 vort. It brings me back to the dry bias I read about it. That is one strong vort around the Islands.

Then we have an extremely strong vort bombing out in the Bahamas at 192, then the resolution drops and the GFS wants to lose it in the Gulf with an anticyclone over it....

Not a strong ridge in place over the Gulf at that time so we will see...

[Ivanhater]

18z Nogaps

[Dean4Storms]

I think that run of the GFS is about what we should expect. There is no reason I can see for this system to not gradually develop and go slightly poleward as it deepens and yet no weakness to turn it more NW. So a WNW course should verify and a close call or direct hit on the northern Leewards and then onward toward the Bahamas. From there with this ridge in place I think it continues through the Bahamas and either through the FL Straits or into S. Florida and then into the GOM. This ridge is just not strong enough or positioned far enough southward to keep this on an almost due west trajectory into the eastern Carib. Sea on the low road unless it fails to develop which with that much water and favorable UL conditions I just don't see that happening!


Of course this is my opinion and not an official forecast, you should rely on your official forecast for all your planning.

[KWT]

I'd imagine you'd be looking at a decent TS/Hurricane if you were to take the Vort as a given...but who knows!