ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS

[TwisterFanatic]

The models are bipolar.

[Vortex]

The lack of consistency with all the models is extremely poor thus far...Can't even buy 2 runs in a row...It's all or nothing then repeat

[Vortex]

waiting on nogaps and canadian...prob same thing

[Ivanhater]

Canadian is a fish again and not that strong

[Vortex]

Nogaps closes off low ar H+42 near 10.7N/31W


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps is very aggressive aiming a Hurricane at Puerto Rico

[Vortex]

Regarding canadian I have a hard time believing this system could cover that much ground between now and 8pm Thursday...Not gonna happen

[Vortex]

00Z Nogaps analyzes system well and fits the forecasted synoptic pattern and current location of system. Seems reasonable and similar to the 18Z GFS...

***Landfall ove rthe NE carribean and eyes on PR.


Nogaps 00Z loop

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm not going to jump on the NOGAPS bandwagon because it shows a strong system headed toward Carib, but I'm not too keen on the CMC. Just a wait and see (as usual) for now.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian shows a weak bermuda high

[TwisterFanatic]

Man, these models are all over the place.

[Vortex]

What I am taking stock in is the general unanimous pattern recognition. The Euro, Nogaps, and GFS all maintain decent ridging to the north of this system throughout the next 7-10 days. There will be relatively insignificant short waves passing by to the north at times but ridging will re-build back in quikly as the short waves pass to the north. None of which should bring about recurvature. So... if we have a situation where there's at least a TS in the NE carribean next weekend theres a reasonable chance based on the majority of guidance that Colin continues W/WNW either just South, Over or just North of the Greater Antilles to a position over or south of the Bahamas...The stronger the storm than a more poleward motion would be expected....Bottom line, IMO we have a storm at unknown intensity of course in the NE Carribean next weekend with a pattern that will favor a continued wnw trajectory...

[Ivanhater]

Man, these models are all over the place.

In more ways than one. Every model (except for the Canadian for obvious reason) have flip flopped every run when it comes to intensity.

In fact, it is either an open wave or a strong hurricane, not really anything in between. This leads me to believe conditions are quite favorable for development, it just has to consolidate into one entity.

[Vortex]

Canadian does indicate a displaced bermuda high to the East with lower pressures across the SW Atlantic which explains Colin's quik exit. However, Nogaps,Euro and GFS show a more expansive ridge to the north which extends back west across the SW atlantic and would provide for a general wnw trajectory to at least 75-080W should the pattern. I didn'r say all the Globals just most and right now I'll go with the majority...

[Vortex]

Waiting on Euro...

[ROCK]

Interesting to see the ECM in a few minutes.....the only thing we will look at here is the ridge placement......development and intensity is up in the air right now.

I would not hang my hat on the CMC or the NOGAPS long range......to many variables attm....

[ROCK]

Canadian does indicate a displaced bermuda high to the East with lower pressures across the SW Atlantic which explains Colin's quik exit. However, Nogaps,Euro and GFS show a more expansive ridge to the north which extends back west across the SW atlantic and would provide for a general wnw trajectory to at least 75-080W should the pattern. I didn'r say all the Globals just most and right now I'll go with the majority...

I agree...your going to need a deep diving SV that erodes the BH significantly to allow the CMC to verify.....this is August and it screams climotology....

[KWT]

The models really ae still a mess aren't they, utterly all over the place in nearly every single way. Its a very complicated set-up...the type that could easily bust I suppose.

Whenever you have such disagreements, you can't really have any confidence in the models at all.

[Ivanhater]

I have a feeling the Euro won't develop it this run

[lonelymike]

Here we are at 2am in the morning...A Brit, a banker, a grad student, a probation officer and twenty something other assorted friends hanging out waiting for a European mathamatical weather model that will frustrate and cause us to scream.....Do we need therapy?