wxman57 wrote:Ivanhater wrote:I find it interesting the NHC has not dropped the percentage at all and has maintained 20 percent throughout. This leads me to believe they think this has a good shot
FYI, we were doing some calculations yesterday on probability of development of tropical waves in August and September. Since we've been counting the waves since about 2004, we have records of how many moved off the coast of Africa during each month and of how many of them developed. On average, any wave in August has a 20-30% chance of development. Chances go up to 30-40% in September. So, statistically, a 20% chance of development would be below average for August.
Really, these estimates are little more than an educated guess by the forecaster based upon what he/she is presently observing in terms of organization. One could certainly argue that the current state of the wave would indicate about zero chance of development within 48 hrs, but possibly 30-40% in the very long term (in 6-8 days) when it reaches the central to western Caribbean Sea. That would be just slightly higher than average for August.
So the only chance you give this wave to develop is in the Western Caribbean?