Wave WSW of CV Islands

[Ivanhater]

The Islands will be in for a horrible couple of weeks if this run panned out verbatim.

In the extended, this really is an interesting week shaping up. It looks like the models have shaken the confusing out and see what is going on with the merge.

Not a very strong trough that picks up this system on the GFS, but it is far enough north to feel it and get grabbed. This looks like a nail bitter for Florida to see if it gets picked up or not, then gets to the Gulf....a classic long tracker

[Aric Dunn]

as I mentioned a few posts ago the low associated with the african wave will transfer its momentum into angular momentum (since its moving faster) to the circ that seems to be forming with ex-90L helping to get the two merged systems going..

[Riptide]

The Islands will be in for a horrible couple of weeks if this run panned out verbatim.

In the extended, this really is an interesting week shaping up. It looks like the models have shaken the confusing out and see what is going on with the merge.

Not a very strong trough that picks up this system on the GFS, but it is far enough north to feel it and get grabbed. This looks like a nail bitter for Florida to see if it gets picked up or not, then gets to the Gulf....a classic long tracker

The carolinas may also be at risk if this kind of scenario occurs.

[Gustywind]

The Islands will be in for a horrible couple of weeks if this run panned out verbatim.

In the extended, this really is an interesting week shaping up. It looks like the models have shaken the confusing out and see what is going on with the merge.

Not a very strong trough that picks up this system on the GFS, but it is far enough north to feel it and get grabbed. This looks like a nail bitter for Florida to see if it gets picked up or not, then gets to the Gulf....a classic long tracker

oh boy ! Hey Ivanhater hope that nothing will happens from this scenario

[Weatherfreak000]

Have alot that needs to be taken into account and we certainly need the EURO, GFDL, CMC.


I wish they would invest this again so we can get the models really going now. The EURO showing the track into the GOM may change if it sees development again.

[Ivanhater]

The Islands will be in for a horrible couple of weeks if this run panned out verbatim.

In the extended, this really is an interesting week shaping up. It looks like the models have shaken the confusing out and see what is going on with the merge.

Not a very strong trough that picks up this system on the GFS, but it is far enough north to feel it and get grabbed. This looks like a nail bitter for Florida to see if it gets picked up or not, then gets to the Gulf....a classic long tracker

The carolinas may also be at risk if this kind of scenario occurs.

Oh of course, one of those scares the heck out of Florida then slams the Carolinas scenarios. This far out, everyone better be on the lookout for this one...that anticyclone over it in the Bahamas is concerning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The exact track is not too important right now as it is sure to change several times, alternating between fish and landfall. What is important though is that the GFS is back on board for significant development of this wave. If a majority of the other models follow suit, then this system will be one to watch very closely over the next several days. A dangerous hurricane, (as portrayed by the GFS), is definitely not out of the question and everyone from the islands to the southeast USA and even the Gulf needs to be on guard.

[blp]

This run also shows the season kicking into high gear and the Leewards getting slammed again by another system. Not a good scenario.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian still very far north

[Gustywind]

This run also shows the season kicking into high gear and the Leewards getting slammed again by another system. Not a good scenario.

but hopefully we far enough from reality just runs... time will tell.

[cycloneye]

Well from June 1, I have been prepared as always do with my family. But for a model to maybe have a 1-2 punch may be extremly too much. However, on the bright side, what GFS shows is at long range and that will change a lot. I will be very worried if all the models show this.

[Aric Dunn]

Canadian still very far north

[img[/img]

that because it does not have a handle on what to do with the two systems.. it has them doing fujiwara which cause erratic motion..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Vortex]

Classic long-tracker/Cape Verde storm in the works.. Per GFS, Nogaps, Euro most Globals have a similar forecasted synoptic set-up in regards to the steering flow etc. at least for the next 7 days or so. The EXCEPTION has been the Canadian. I see no reason at this time that future Colin does not pose a significant threat to the NE carribean and possibly PR if the suggested pattern verifies. Once near 22-24N/72-75W or so things as usual become much less certain and whether we have recurvature, a US East coast/Fl landfall or W into the Gulf will continue for some time to be a big uncertainty as is almost always the case this far out...

Intensity wise anyone's guess . However, the FACT were heading into August, at or near record warm SST's along the path and favorable environmental conditons all point to a high chance that this system will have more than ample opportunity to be a SIGNIFICANT STORM as it near the NE carribean.

Anxiously awaiting the 12 Z Nogaps, Canadian, and Euro...

[Ivanhater]

Canadian still very far north

[img[/img]

that because it does not have a handle on what to do with the two systems.. it has them doing fujiwara which cause erratic motion..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That is true, but it also has a big trough off the East coast and a weak displaced Subtropical ridge....I don't think it's getting that far north

[Aric Dunn]

Canadian still very far north

[img[/img]

that because it does not have a handle on what to do with the two systems.. it has them doing fujiwara which cause erratic motion..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That is true, but it also has a big trough off the East coast and a weak displaced Subtropical ridge....I don't think it's getting that far north

yeah but if you notice the low swings around the other really fast way ahead of what the GFS say it will be at so it is farther north closer to the trough ... just throw the CMC out this run..

[cycloneye]

This is looking better and better as time goes by.

[Gustywind]

:crazyeyes: Well from June 1, I have been prepared as always do with my family. But for a model to maybe have a 1-2 punch may be extremly too much. However, on the bright side, what GFS shows is at long range and that will change a lot. I will be very worried if all the models show this.

Glad to see that my neighbour from the north , you seem well prepared in case of! Let's hope that the others models won't show what GFS is showing! We have enough time to see if the models are in agreement or not! Let's see if this trend verifies... Whereas us in the islands should be always on our guard at this period.

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps has a strong Hurricane hitting the Mid Islands..Impressive

Talk amongst yourselves

[Vortex]

12 Nogaps stronger and poses threat to Leewards and PR


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Lets stay tuned to the next TWO at 2pm. It should be interesting...