Wave WSW of CV Islands

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#301 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:18 pm

yeah that is a major hurricane for the nogaps.. key thing to notice the ridge for the nogaps is quite strong as it is slower than the gfs allowing the ridge to build behind that trough..
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#302 Postby Gustywind » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:This is looking better and better as time goes by.

Image

You're definitely right Cycloneye. Any loop for this?
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#303 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:24 pm

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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#304 Postby Gustywind » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www308.blibs.com/do-not-link-here-use-hosting-instead/128058856065566?6373077734

:) Thanks my friend.

Edited by Ivanhater to remove image tags
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#305 Postby Riptide » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:26 pm

That loop is outdated by about 3 hours.
Last edited by Riptide on Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#306 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:26 pm

Organizing very, very quickly. I suspect the NHC will go up to code orange.
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#307 Postby hurricaneCW » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:32 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

On this loop, is this wave the entire area all the way to the east because it's really blossoming today. The problem is that all of the convection is generally south of 10N.
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#308 Postby Riptide » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:37 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

On this loop, is this wave the entire area all the way to the east because it's really blossoming today. The problem is that all of the convection is generally south of 10N.

It looks like there are two distinct centers and that they will merge in the next 24 hours. The nogaps model showed this the best with the lowest center moving north and the center closer to CV moving west.
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#309 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:38 pm

According to the models, we should start to see this start to develop in about 36 hours
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#310 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:41 pm

Yeah the big difference today is more models are coming onboard with the single vort idea and not two seperate waves.

The GFS looks good IMO but could get further west...which leads to the WORST case option of all....Haiti risk I fear...but far too early to call!

The key question is...90L or 91L!
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#311 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:46 pm

Code Orange at 30%

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES TO ITS WEST. ALTHOUGH THIS ENTIRE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LESS LIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#312 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:46 pm

How did you beat me Luis! :lol:

Up to 30 percent, they must have seen the 12z model guidance :wink:
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#313 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:47 pm

ORANGE!
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#314 Postby lester » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:52 pm

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#315 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:54 pm

Well I think given we upto orange now we'll know soon whether we have 90L again or a brand new 91L...arguements could easily be made for both I feel!
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#316 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:57 pm

I suspect we will see 91L. A fresh start for tracking guidance with a more correct starting point seem the best course of action IMO.
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#317 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:01 pm

although I must say the Low pressure is way better organized then the wave behind it... the energy is still going to be transferred but I think 90L is still alive... and seems to be bigger than ever. the other wave may just lose its identity into ex 90L .. which from yesterday seems to be the opposite but either way they are merging. The circulation with the low is tightening up pretty quickly and convection continues to migrate closer. things could happen sooner...
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#318 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:04 pm

Very interesting paragraph of the ITCZ at 2 PM discussion.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 15N17W 08N33W 10N45W 08N60W 11N70W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 12N ALONG
34W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W AND 44W.
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W
AND 53W. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS APPROACHES FROM THE EAST...THAT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 34W.

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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#319 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:11 pm

This is a very interesting graphic from the NHC/TAFB

Image
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#320 Postby knotimpaired » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:14 pm

Gustywind wrote:
cycloneye wrote::crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :hmm: :sick: Well from June 1, I have been prepared as always do with my family. But for a model to maybe have a 1-2 punch may be extremly too much. However, on the bright side, what GFS shows is at long range and that will change a lot. I will be very worried if all the models show this.

Glad to see that my neighbour from the north :), you seem well prepared in case of! Let's hope that the others models won't show what GFS is showing! We have enough time to see if the models are in agreement or not! Let's see if this trend verifies... Whereas us in the islands should be always on our guard at this period.


We will bring the hot dogs!
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