Wave WSW of CV Islands

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KWT
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#321 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:17 pm

Track looks good to me Ivanhater, thats a vey interesting product because it shows in graphics what the NHC thoughts may well be.

The amount of new products we didn't know about coming out this season is great, helps solve alot of uncertainties I suppose!

Can't be long before its invested again, esp given more models are trying to develop something again.
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#322 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:20 pm

Look at those cloud tops cooling and is at DIN.

Image
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#323 Postby Frank2 » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:23 pm

Uh, not sure what the NHC is referring to, other than an active ITCZ:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg

P.S. I still think the area east of the Bahamas has more potential than anything else on the map at this time - interesting that the NHC hasn't mentioned it at all...
Last edited by Frank2 on Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#324 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:25 pm

Its slowly gaining more convection as the two waves interact.
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#325 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:25 pm

12Z UKMET, is really far north as well..similar to the Canadian
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#326 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:32 pm

Yeah it is really far north, the UKMO usually handles upper highs quite well...BUT that goes way against moderate La Nina tendancies...

Note it has it at 63/24N in 120hrs, will be interesting to see whether it gets there that quickly given the slow motion of recent days...
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#327 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:37 pm

The two systems still need to finish coming together which should take another 24 hours.... so sometime tomorrow we should really be getting close to TC... monday should be the day though ..
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#328 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:40 pm

Yeah I had originally told my hubby that I thought this would really consolidate and possibly be a TD by Monday at the earliest. I have been keeping an eye this as I am sure you all have. This one may be a classic long tracker for sure.
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#329 Postby Blown Away » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:42 pm

Yesterday's 90L runs were going generally towards clipping the NE Caribbean then Bahamas/SFL/Cuba area. Seems the models want to recurve E of this area now, is it because if 90L or 91L is activated it's intial point will be more E than yesterday's position? :double:
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#330 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:44 pm

12z Euro, still bringing an open wave but further north this run...North of the Islands..

The Euro is the only model that isn't developing this..as of now it is an outlier

144 hours



Image
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#331 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:44 pm

Also FWIW the 12z UKMO does look too fast, even taking it forms quite far west of what is probable we'd still be looking at the system having to go at 16mph to meet the UKMO forecast point which is looking a little ambitious given it may form further east then where I've plotted it (I used ex-90L as the main starting point, formation may well be further east.)
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#332 Postby CourierPR » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:44 pm

Frank2 wrote:Uh, not sure what the NHC is referring to, other than an active ITCZ:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg

P.S. I still think the area east of the Bahamas has more potential than anything else on the map at this time - interesting that the NHC hasn't mentioned it at all...
Obviously, if the NHC hasn't mentioned it, then it doesn't have more potential than anything else on the map.
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#333 Postby hurricaneCW » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:44 pm

That's quite a huge area of convection. I wonder if it will all consolidate into one large system. Doesn't look like a Caribbean system, the Bermuda high will be further east and kind of weak, but let's just focus on it developing first before we discuss track.
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#334 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:46 pm

Ivanhater wrote:12z Euro, still bringing an open wave but further north this run...North of the Islands..

The Euro is the only model that isn't developing this..as of now it is an outlier

144 hours



Image


it seems to be about a day faster than the GFS as well and does not seem to have the weakness in the ridge like the gfs.
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#335 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:49 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:That's quite a huge area of convection. I wonder if it will all consolidate into one large system. Doesn't look like a Caribbean system, the Bermuda high will be further east and kind of weak, but let's just focus on it developing first before we discuss track.


Really?

Its pretty deep, the Azores High does ridge far enough to at least keep it going broadly west till 50-55W so I'd think the odds to the NE Caribbean of it coming at least rather close for comfort are real good IMO...remember this one is down at 8-10N.

Aric, the UKMO is even faster, as I said we'd have to average about 16mph from now on for that to come off, and its hardly moving at the moment!
Last edited by KWT on Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#336 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:50 pm

I always find it amazing how fast things can change... especially with genesis... even the NHC gets confused... 90L early this morning looked nothing ... then no more than 5 hours later it begins to get organized.. lol
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#337 Postby crownweather » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:51 pm

Ivanhater wrote:This is a very interesting graphic from the NHC/TAFB

Image


Do you have a link to all of the gridded NHC marine forecasts like this??
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#338 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:52 pm

168 hours...Bahamas....There should be no reason for this not to develop giving the strong reflection on the Euro

Image
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#339 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:53 pm

crownweather wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:This is a very interesting graphic from the NHC/TAFB



Do you have a link to all of the gridded NHC marine forecasts like this??



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_ma ... d#contents
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#340 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:54 pm

crownweather wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:This is a very interesting graphic from the NHC/TAFB
]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_marine/ifp/images/nh2_wind_20100806_1200.png


Do you have a link to all of the gridded NHC marine forecasts like this??


Yeah..here is the link and loop

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_ma ... d#contents
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