Wave WSW of CV Islands
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Track looks good to me Ivanhater, thats a vey interesting product because it shows in graphics what the NHC thoughts may well be.
The amount of new products we didn't know about coming out this season is great, helps solve alot of uncertainties I suppose!
Can't be long before its invested again, esp given more models are trying to develop something again.
The amount of new products we didn't know about coming out this season is great, helps solve alot of uncertainties I suppose!
Can't be long before its invested again, esp given more models are trying to develop something again.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- cycloneye
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange
Look at those cloud tops cooling and is at DIN.


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Uh, not sure what the NHC is referring to, other than an active ITCZ:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg
P.S. I still think the area east of the Bahamas has more potential than anything else on the map at this time - interesting that the NHC hasn't mentioned it at all...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg
P.S. I still think the area east of the Bahamas has more potential than anything else on the map at this time - interesting that the NHC hasn't mentioned it at all...
Last edited by Frank2 on Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Its slowly gaining more convection as the two waves interact.
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- Ivanhater
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange
12Z UKMET, is really far north as well..similar to the Canadian
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Michael
Yeah it is really far north, the UKMO usually handles upper highs quite well...BUT that goes way against moderate La Nina tendancies...
Note it has it at 63/24N in 120hrs, will be interesting to see whether it gets there that quickly given the slow motion of recent days...
Note it has it at 63/24N in 120hrs, will be interesting to see whether it gets there that quickly given the slow motion of recent days...
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- wzrgirl1
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange
Yeah I had originally told my hubby that I thought this would really consolidate and possibly be a TD by Monday at the earliest. I have been keeping an eye this as I am sure you all have. This one may be a classic long tracker for sure.
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- Blown Away
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange
Yesterday's 90L runs were going generally towards clipping the NE Caribbean then Bahamas/SFL/Cuba area. Seems the models want to recurve E of this area now, is it because if 90L or 91L is activated it's intial point will be more E than yesterday's position? 

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- Ivanhater
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange
12z Euro, still bringing an open wave but further north this run...North of the Islands..
The Euro is the only model that isn't developing this..as of now it is an outlier
144 hours

The Euro is the only model that isn't developing this..as of now it is an outlier
144 hours

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Michael
Also FWIW the 12z UKMO does look too fast, even taking it forms quite far west of what is probable we'd still be looking at the system having to go at 16mph to meet the UKMO forecast point which is looking a little ambitious given it may form further east then where I've plotted it (I used ex-90L as the main starting point, formation may well be further east.)
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- CourierPR
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Re:
Obviously, if the NHC hasn't mentioned it, then it doesn't have more potential than anything else on the map.Frank2 wrote:Uh, not sure what the NHC is referring to, other than an active ITCZ:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg
P.S. I still think the area east of the Bahamas has more potential than anything else on the map at this time - interesting that the NHC hasn't mentioned it at all...
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange
That's quite a huge area of convection. I wonder if it will all consolidate into one large system. Doesn't look like a Caribbean system, the Bermuda high will be further east and kind of weak, but let's just focus on it developing first before we discuss track.
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange
Ivanhater wrote:12z Euro, still bringing an open wave but further north this run...North of the Islands..
The Euro is the only model that isn't developing this..as of now it is an outlier
144 hours
it seems to be about a day faster than the GFS as well and does not seem to have the weakness in the ridge like the gfs.
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange
hurricaneCW wrote:That's quite a huge area of convection. I wonder if it will all consolidate into one large system. Doesn't look like a Caribbean system, the Bermuda high will be further east and kind of weak, but let's just focus on it developing first before we discuss track.
Really?
Its pretty deep, the Azores High does ridge far enough to at least keep it going broadly west till 50-55W so I'd think the odds to the NE Caribbean of it coming at least rather close for comfort are real good IMO...remember this one is down at 8-10N.
Aric, the UKMO is even faster, as I said we'd have to average about 16mph from now on for that to come off, and its hardly moving at the moment!
Last edited by KWT on Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- crownweather
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange
Ivanhater wrote:This is a very interesting graphic from the NHC/TAFB
Do you have a link to all of the gridded NHC marine forecasts like this??
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange
168 hours...Bahamas....There should be no reason for this not to develop giving the strong reflection on the Euro


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Michael
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange
crownweather wrote:Ivanhater wrote:This is a very interesting graphic from the NHC/TAFB
Do you have a link to all of the gridded NHC marine forecasts like this??
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_ma ... d#contents
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- Ivanhater
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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange
crownweather wrote:Ivanhater wrote:This is a very interesting graphic from the NHC/TAFB
]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_marine/ifp/images/nh2_wind_20100806_1200.png
Do you have a link to all of the gridded NHC marine forecasts like this??
Yeah..here is the link and loop
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_ma ... d#contents
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Michael