Wave WSW of CV Islands

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My forecast
Chances of becoming a Tropical Depression in...
24 Hours-5%
48 Hours-30%
72 Hours-50%
1 Week-80%

Chances of Tropical Storm in...
24 Hours-<1%
48 Hours-10%
72 Hours-40%
1 Week-80%

Hurricane...
24 Hours-0%
48 Hours-<1%
72 Hours-<1%
1 Week-60%

(Note-i have not looked at the models yet so accuracy-25%)

[Blown Away]

BA, from there there is enough westward ummph to push the system on a track close to Bonnie.

The ECM really isn't keen on this system but it does do more this run then it has done on the last few runs.

Thanks KWT! Correct me if I'm wrong but many of 90L's runs yesterday had a system in the Bahamas/SFL/Cuba area in the 10-12 day range, now some models are in that area in 8 days and that may include a LLC relocation to the east?? I took the ECM's FL Straits timeframe and it averages about 14 mph.

[perk]

Well, the Euro has been coming further north each run and is pretty much in line with the GFS for much of the time.

Only difference is in the long range when the Euro has just enough of ridging to push in the GOM...

I'm becoming more confident with a strike in the NE Islands heading on a general direction of the Bahamas..we can deal with the rest later...

Ivan i think you're right on the money.After the Bahamas is a crap shoot.

[Riptide]

A cherry!

[KWT]

Getting very convective now, energy is being increased as the 2nd TW closes in on, looks like to me the 2nd TW isn't developed enough to prevent a total merger with this one.

[Riptide]

Getting very convective now, energy is being increased as the 2nd TW closes in on, looks like to me the 2nd TW isn't developed enough to prevent a total merger with this one.

It looks like the surface trough/low pressure is climbing in latitude. Once it gets past 10N, there is probably no turning back in terms of development because the Coriolis effect will help initiate cyclonegenesis.

[ronjon]

Difference now between ECM and GFS at a little longer than a week out is strong 500 mb ridging over the SE US extending east into the SW atlantic in the Euro and a smaller 500 mb ridge in the GFS centered more over the southern plains which allows the storm to escape north off the coast into a weakness. Also, the Euro is a little faster with the storm by about 24 hrs as it approaches the bahamas.

Upper Air Euro

GFS Upper Air

Given how consistent that upper ridge has held over the SE US this summer and the better operational performance of the Euro at the long range, I'd have to lean towards its solution at this time.

[Ivanhater]

Wow, we have a concentrated area of convection with some -80c cloud tops.

[Ivanhater]

Great graphic Ron..illustrates the longer range ridge better

Notice the ridge oriented SE to NW and shrinking on the Euro.

This will change but the environment looks great for possible bombing around the Bahamas.

[cycloneye]

If that is the area of focus, then 90L may be reactivated instead of having 91L.

[Weatherfreak000]

How is this not an invest right now? Confusing...

[Riptide]

How is this not an invest right now? Confusing...

NHC has done a good job staying with the system but they deactivated it when real development was expected. It sure does look like 90L is large and in charge.

[Ivanhater]

I'm thinking 40 percent next TWO, maybe 50. The models start developing this within 36 hours which is in the 48 hour window.

[Riptide]

I just realized how large the moisture envelope of this system is. Probably the beginnings of a very large TC.

Current water vapor

[cycloneye]

From this afternoons San Juan AFD.

FORECAST FROM LATE THU THROUGH SAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 30W. THIS SYSTEM IS
BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY NHC FOR POTENTIAL TC DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING SOME TYPE OF
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS WAVE WITH TRACKS CLOSE TO THE FCST AREA
AROUND THE THU NIGHT-FRI TIME FRAME. REFER TO TROPICAL WX OUTLOOK
FOR MORE DETAILS.

[Gustywind]

Tropics remain quiet for now
M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 31, 2010 3:16 pm ET
The tropics remain void of any active tropical cyclones across the globe.

In the Atlantic, there are 2 areas that are being monitored, but neither is expected to organize and develop into a tropical system over the weekend. One is a tropical wave that is located in the south-central Caribbean which is producing diminished and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It should move into Central America without developing. Meanwhile, the other area is a broad area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and a trough of low pressure in the Eastern Atlantic. Some slow development is likely within this increasingly active but still disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms.

[Gustywind]

Ample even massive area of convection: an euphemisma

[Gustywind]

Anynone saw another blob pretty very active on Africa?

[Gustywind]

Hey hey looks like small but very concentrated area of convection are doting Africa. Is the train is in route? Let's wait and see as we approach roughly August...

[Ivanhater]