Wave WSW of CV Islands

ronjon · #381 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 3:31 pm

A little off topic but this afternoons GFS run shows 4 tropical cyclones in the long range at one time. Wow. The convection for this disturbance looks like a monsoon trough. The long range models have been showing a large area of convection and disturbed weather from west africa to about 40W that stays semi-permanent through time in August - kinda forms a seed region for the cyclones.

knotimpaired · #382 Postby **knotimpaired** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:04 pm

If you look at Google Earth I count 6 different areas of personal interest that could all merge at some point.

Granted the majority will probably blow apart but it is still going to be a major rain event for the Leewards and PR.

#383 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:24 pm

Experimental product from NHC/TAFB

Very interesting what they may be thinking as to where this system may go and strength. Certianly raises an eybrow.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_ma ... d#contents

Gustywind · #384 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:28 pm

knotimpaired wrote:If you look at Google Earth I count 6 different areas of personal interest that could all merge at some point.

Granted the majority will probably blow apart but it is still going to be a major rain event for the Leewards and PR.

Oh boy

hope that your faulse Karen! Reading your post today concerning this area of low pressure, i fell you a bit pessimistic since this morning Karen. Have got this gut felling for us in the Leewards and PR??? Are you snifing something?

Riptide · #385 Postby **Riptide** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:28 pm

This thread really went into hibernation. I hope NHC reactivates/activates an invest before midnight.

TwisterFanatic · #386 Postby **TwisterFanatic** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:43 pm

StormClouds63 · #387 Postby **StormClouds63** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:43 pm

Ivan:

What do you think at this point ... Atlantic or GOM?

I'll stick with my guess that this one feels the weakness and eventually turns NW, threatening the U.S. east coast (esp. NC).

HurricaneMaster_PR · #388 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:46 pm

1008mb Low pressure area is back at 18Z Tropical Surface Analysis

#389 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:53 pm

StormClouds63 wrote:Ivan:

What do you think at this point ... Atlantic or GOM?

I'll stick with my guess that this one feels the weakness and eventually turns NW, threatening the U.S. east coast (esp. NC).

Right now I feel good about it nearing the Bahamas. I think it's a 50/50 for Gulf or up the East coast.

I don't think it will recurve before hitting the U.S

#390 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:54 pm

18Z GFS rolling in...tries to spin both vort maxes around each other, but by 42 hours the southern one (ex90L) takes over..

#391 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:59 pm

48 hours

#392 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:02 pm

60 hours

#393 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:07 pm

84 hours

#394 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:14 pm

102 hours...strengthening, heading toward the NE Islands

#395 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:15 pm

Ivan, can i have a link to that?

#396 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:18 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Ivan, can i have a link to that?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/model_lu.shtml

#397 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:19 pm

strengthening storm passes through Northern Leewards at H+126

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

#398 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:19 pm

126 hours..Clipping the NE Islands

Here is the link

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... l_mu.shtml

ROCK · #399 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:20 pm

[quote="Ivanhater"]18Z GFS rolling in...tries to spin both vort maxes around each other, but by 42 hours the southern one (ex90L) takes over..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... m.gifquote]

I think its safe to tag this one an invest and get some model runs tonight....they might have jumped the gun earlier...

#400 Postby **lester** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:22 pm

144 hours:

Wave WSW of CV Islands

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

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Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

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