Wave WSW of CV Islands

#401 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:22 pm

144 hours...still strengthening

#402 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:23 pm

Passes just north pf PR while intensifying..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

#403 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:23 pm

At that time the Islanders switch their eyes on the other Cape verde storm forming :uarrow:

#404 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:26 pm

Ridging starting to form over the SE U.S..this may be further west on this run...well see

#405 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:27 pm

168 hours

#406 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:29 pm

NHC's new experimental gridded marine forecast is quite interesting!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_ma ... d#contents

#407 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:32 pm

180..Absolutely Bombing in the Bahamas

#408 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:34 pm

Looks like at some point there may be a weakness around 70-75W to cause future Colin to slow down and briefly turn NW..*IF* this occurs may be temporary as ridging may try to build in once again over the SE/W atlantic as Michael alluded too and block recurvature..just a thought and im sure will change many times over...

#409 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:38 pm

Fails to get picked up and hits NE Florida moving west

Oh and btw, the NE Islands get hit again

#410 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:39 pm

Looks to be a severe Hurricane Landfall in FL on this run at H+228

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

#411 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:39 pm

IMO, it may not be too long, maybe an hour or two from now that we have or 90L again or 91L.

TwisterFanatic · #412 Postby **TwisterFanatic** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:39 pm

Is the GFS showing the system to be pretty strong?

ROCK · #413 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:40 pm

probably pointed out by Ivan but the CMC does not solve the dueling vortex's at this resolution...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

#414 Postby **lester** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:42 pm

Vortex wrote:Looks to be a severe Hurricane Landfall in FL on this run at H+228

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

This track reminds me of andrew for some reason. Good thing it's 228 hours out.

#415 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:42 pm

ROCK wrote:probably pointed out by Ivan but the CMC does not solve the dueling vortex's at this resolution...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

It makes sense for the Canadian. It sees 2 vort maxes and automatically wants to spin both of them up. Once it figures out the southern one will probably take over, it will be interesting to see what it does

x-y-no · #416 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:43 pm

Heh ... that's a nasty looking scenario.

It'll be interesting to see if this persists over the next few days worth of runs. If it does, we may have liftoff.

#417 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:43 pm

Similar track for the next Hurricane heading for the U.S

Haa..and another storm forming behind that one...they did say once is started, it won't stop for a while

#418 Postby **ColinDelia** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:44 pm

Recurve · #419 Postby **Recurve** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:44 pm

Going to be watching the high evolution (more than what intensity the models show that far out). No doubt there's enough energy for a strong storm if it reaches the Bahamas area. Have to hope (for S Fla at least) that at that point the high isn't too strong and solid completely across the peninsula.
On some earlier runs the high retreated pretty significantly for a time from the coast. At least on that last run that Ivanhater posted the major storm is relatively far north and still (edit: a bit) east of the Bahamas.

x-y-no · #420 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:45 pm

lester88 wrote:
Vortex wrote:Looks to be a severe Hurricane Landfall in FL on this run at H+228

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

This track reminds me of andrew for some reason. Good thing it's 228 hours out.

Well, there's something to that - same weakness as it passes the islands, then a ridge building in to turn it west to Florida.

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