Wave WSW of CV Islands

#421 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:46 pm

18Z Nogaps rollign in shortly...

ROCK · #422 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:47 pm

the EURO trended more north last run so this might be a sound track.....really close to PR then into the BH then FL....

ROCK · #423 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:48 pm

The NOGAPS run a 18Z....never seen that....

hurricaneCW · #424 Postby **hurricaneCW** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:53 pm

This is all going on in an unfavorable MJO, imagine what will happen if it becomes favorable. Yeah I know it doesn't really matter in a La Nina, but it's still somewhat important. Here comes the wave train. The gfs long range is quite eerie and generally shows the storms heading right toward the U.S.

#425 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:53 pm

I dont see anything on the NOGAPS 18Z run.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

#426 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:56 pm

18Z Nogaps at h+144 Weaker BUT seems a bit off this run on several levels.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

xcool22 · #427 Postby **xcool22** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:58 pm

As always, about timing timing :lol:

#428 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:59 pm

Vortex wrote:18Z Nogaps at h+144 Weaker BUT seems a bit off this run on several levels.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Yep, weaker because it couldn't shake the other vort.

ROCK · #429 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:02 pm

if it cant shake the other wave then it would be reasonable to believe that a more left track would be in the making....

caribepr · #430 Postby **caribepr** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:06 pm

Watching from Maine...

ROCK · #431 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:10 pm

BTW those are some very cold tops.....LLC making its way to the surface? impressive....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

#432 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:14 pm

A quick sample= What do you think will be the % of 8 PM TWO?

I say 40%.

#433 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:15 pm

@ Cycloneye-40% for 8PM, 50% for 2am.

#434 Postby **ColinDelia** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:15 pm

I'll take 40%

#435 Postby **lester** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:16 pm

40% imo

#436 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:16 pm

Looked at the 18Z GFS run. That system behind the current system absolutely bombs out in the Bahamas areas. Does seem like a strong ridge sets up shop in the Western Atlantic to prevent recurvature. Thankfully these runs are way out there in the long-range so will expect some different outcomes in future runs (hopefully).

I think given we are seeing the models starting to latch on to some systems in the long-range, I think we can conclude things are likely going to ramp up in the next couple of weeks.

#437 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:17 pm

I'll go with 50 since the models are getting this going within the 48 hour window

#438 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:17 pm

caribepr wrote:Watching from Maine...

Wow, very far from your Culebra paradise Mj. Lets see what happens with this.

#439 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:A quick sample= What do you think will be the % of 8 PM TWO?

I say 40%.

i like 40

#440 Postby **expat2carib** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:22 pm

30 at 8 pm. 50 at 2 am

edit: I never get used to AM and PM. I rather use 20.00hrs and 02.00 hrs

Wave WSW of CV Islands

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re:

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re:

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Re: Wave SW of CV Islands - Code Orange

Who is online