Wave WSW of CV Islands

Vortmax1 · #441 Postby **Vortmax1** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:24 pm

They'll stay at 30 % for the 8pm.

Aric Dunn · #442 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:27 pm

yeah it will probably be 30% at 8 still

HurricaneMaster_PR · #443 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:34 pm

Look at that cold cloud tops!! Im curious to see how this is gonna look when D-Max comes! It only takes for this system to get out of the ITCZ in order to finally develop!

#444 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:35 pm

30% at 8 than a ramp up to 60-70% tomorrow..Also, think by tomorrow morning invest status will be up and running as I think there waiting on the dominant surface reflection to begin to takeshape which I think will by tomorrow morning..Going with TD late Monday and TS Tuesday...

I-wall · #445 Postby **I-wall** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:35 pm

Tropics_Dude83 wrote:The Atlantic just doesn't have it's mojo this year....Shocked at what has occurred with this invest. The favorable dynamics just aren't there yet and I'd like to see some evidence that the ATL has it's mojo within the next 10 days or.....

I've read that the MJO is beginning to switch to a more favorable setup. That along with the fact that we are getting into the meat of the season should really make things pick up. Things will get going

#446 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:37 pm

40 PERCENT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 312337
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE
TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING ABOUT 850 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE...AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA

Aric Dunn · #447 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:41 pm

Still no invest... pretty odd...

#448 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:42 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Still no invest... pretty odd...

Watch in the next hour ot two.

#449 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:43 pm

I don't think I have seen them designate an invest this late in the evening. Most likely the morning shift will...

Aric Dunn · #450 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Still no invest... pretty odd...

Watch in the next hour ot two.

I know its coming at some point but its still odd they went the whole day with nothing..

#451 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:45 pm

Then again, I don't remember seeing a 40 percent orange with no invest either

Vortmax1 · #452 Postby **Vortmax1** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:46 pm

Yes, that's what is unusual...a 40% with no declared Invest.

#453 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:47 pm

I blew that one...40 it is. Looks like im going to burn the midnight oil AGAIN tonight waiting in on all guidance and of course keeping tabls on every updated sat image that comes in..Welcome to August...im sure im not the only one who will be glued to this computer well into the night :lol:

Having witnessed my first storm at age 5 I live for the late summer and this type of set-up every year to the point of addiction...Anyone else get where I'm coming from? Sorry to get off course here.. :lol:

#454 Postby **KBBOCA** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:48 pm

Wow. Scary looking scenario. That should drum up some traffic here and get many folks paying attention!!

Ivanhater, the storm that shows up behind - is that the wave just about to exit Africa tonight? Or something else? I'm not very good at reading the model maps. Thanks for all you've posted!

Ivanhater wrote:Similar track for the next Hurricane heading for the U.S

Haa..and another storm forming behind that one...they did say once is started, it won't stop for a while

Weatherfreak000 · #455 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:49 pm

Based on current trends i'ma guess 60% on the 2 A.M.

That means we were just about 24 hours off crunching one last storm in for the month of July. What a shame.

Note: The Caribbean wave is firing again. I still have faith in two to three storm formations in the next 7 to 10 days.

#456 Postby **expat2carib** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:50 pm

What kind of shifts are they doing at the NHC. Is it their first TWO of the shift or their last?

Aric Dunn · #457 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:51 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Based on current trends i'ma guess 60% on the 2 A.M.

That means we were just about 24 hours off crunching one last storm in for the month of July. What a shame.

Note: The Caribbean wave is firing again. I still have faith in two to three storm formations in the next 7 to 10 days.

its out in the middle of no where and unless it really blows up I dont think they will up it till the morning visible.. that is of course if it looks better..

#458 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:51 pm

KBBOCA wrote:Wow. Scary looking scenario. That should drum up some traffic here and get many folks paying attention!!

Ivanhater, the storm that shows up behind - is that the wave just about to exit Africa tonight? Or something else? I'm not very good at reading the model maps. Thanks for all you've posted!

Ivanhater wrote:Similar track for the next Hurricane heading for the U.S

Haa..and another storm forming behind that one...they did say once is started, it won't stop for a while

Well I am not sure if it is the wave emerging now, timing would seem right. In about 144 hours when this current system is cutting through the Islands, the next one is developing so not that far out in time really.

wzrgirl1 · #459 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:51 pm

Vortex wrote:I blew that one...40 it is. Looks like im going to burn the midnight oil AGAIN tonight waiting in on all guidance and of course keeping tabls on every updated sat image that comes in..Welcome to August...im sure im not the only one who will be glued to this computer well into the night Having witnessed my first storm at age 5 I live for the late summer and this type of set-up every year to the point of addiction...Anyone else get where I'm coming from? Sorry to get off course here..

I am beyond addicted. This baby could be one for the records.

#460 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:52 pm

Vortex wrote:I blew that one...40 it is. Looks like im going to burn the midnight oil AGAIN tonight waiting in on all guidance and of course keeping tabls on every updated sat image that comes in..Welcome to August...im sure im not the only one who will be glued to this computer well into the night Having witnessed my first storm at age 5 I live for the late summer and this type of set-up every year to the point of addiction...Anyone else get where I'm coming from? Sorry to get off course here..

I've had a few of those nights... 5am 2005

THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND
DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS
PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT

Wave WSW of CV Islands

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