Wave WSW of CV Islands

[wxman57]

It is looking more like it'll develop now. And with it way down near 8-9N, it's going to have a hard time missing the eastern Caribbean as the GFS and Canadian suggest. Busy next few weeks ahead.

[cycloneye]

These two are among the best, BEVEN/LANDSEA. They are looking at the models and the trends of organization at the images and that is why the 40%. If the trends continue, they will keep the % going up in the next TWO'S.

[Ivanhater]

Doesn't get much colder than that

[Aric Dunn]

These two are among the best, BEVEN/LANDSEA. They are looking at the models and the trends of organization at the images and that is why the 40%. If the trends continue, they will keep the % going up in the next TWO'S.

yeah they are great... I have talked a bunch with beven over the years at the conferences and landsea a few times and they are two of the best.... now if it said Beven/Landsea/Stewart... that would be the best combo...

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like the wave certainly enhanced convection. BTW, who forgot to tell the ITCZ in the Atlantic that the MJO is unfavorable right now?

[cycloneye]

It is looking more like it'll develop now. And with it way down near 5N, it's going to have a hard time missing the eastern Caribbean as the GFS and Canadian suggest. Busy next few weeks ahead.

What % you give it to be a threat to the NE Caribbean islands? (You know why I ask)

[FireBird]

Hey Guys, where can i get a fix on the present co-ordinates?

[Vortmax1]

They made it a special feature in the TWD:



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010


...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 27W
SOUTH OF 15N. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM. A WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT ON INFRA RED
SATELLITE DATA. WHILE AMPLE MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. THEREFORE...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION NEAR BY THIS SYSTEM IS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. ALTHOUGH
THIS ENTIRE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINS
DISORGANIZED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

[KBBOCA]

I just noticed GOES East Floater 1 is still showing 90L even though this is no longer an invest.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

Is that normal? Or does this mean that this is about to be redeclared an invest? I haven't checked the floaters often enough to know if the 90L tag ever was removed.

[cycloneye]

I just noticed GOES East Floater 1 is still showing 90L even though this is no longer an invest.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

Is that normal? Or does this mean that this is about to be redeclared an invest? I haven't checked the floaters often enough to know if the 90L tag ever was removed.

The 90L tag was never removed at the floaters site. Re-invest is imminent, stay tuned.

[gatorcane]

Should be an invest soon enough. It does have that "look" like it is organizing. Colin is that you?

That said, gradual organization appears likely at this point. So if it becomes named, it may take a couple of days to get there.

I'm saying it will be code RED by the next TWO, and if not then should be by the time we wake up tomorrow morning.

Just in time for Aug. 1st....

[SFLcane]

I just noticed GOES East Floater 1 is still showing 90L even though this is no longer an invest.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

Is that normal? Or does this mean that this is about to be redeclared an invest? I haven't checked the floaters often enough to know if the 90L tag ever was removed.

The 90L tag was never removed at the floaters site. Re-invest is imminent, stay tuned.

If i remember correctly thats been up on the SSD site all afternoon. Regardless this looks to be slowly coming together.

[Nimbus]

Looks like the wave axis is near -35w with that recent burst of convection right behind near -33W? Looks ready to roll to me.

[MandiAltman]

Okay...this system is making me antsy! Do I need to buy gas for my generator or what??

[wzrgirl1]

Helllooooo August!! I am not quite understanding why the invest was removed only to be most likely put back up by tomorrow. Maybe it was prematurely named in the first place.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET, north of Puerto Rico in 5 days:

ECMWF and GFS build a ridge in the Western Atlantic in the long-range. The fact that both are showing this has my attention though the UKMET is not showing a ridge out through 5 days yet probably because it builds in farther out in the run. The CMC develops a weakness in the Western Atlantic in the long-range opposite the GFS/ECMWF. Very curious if there is run-to-run consistency.

[Vortmax1]

Do I need to buy gas for my generator or what??

Isn't generator fuel part of your hurricane prep plan every season?

[Hurricane Andrew]

It looks like this thing has a chance of hitting me!

I live 60 miles N of NYC.

[wzrgirl1]

It looks like this thing has a chance of hitting me!

I live 60 miles N of NYC.

I think that it has an equal chance of hitting about anybody right now.

[KWT]

I say Code red as well, looks like its in the middle phase of developing, odds looking decent it develops in the next day or so IMO....