ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11153
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#41 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:21 am

06Z Bams

Image
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#42 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:25 am

ok well this has been a hoot and all but time to hit the sack.......

talk to you guys and gals tomorrow.......Ivan get some rest bro....you are going to need it... :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#43 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:26 am

Wow! what a difference 24 hours can make!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11153
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#44 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:27 am

ROCK wrote:ok well this has been a hoot and all but time to hit the sack.......

talk to you guys and gals tomorrow.......Ivan get some rest bro....you are going to need it... :D


I hear ya..I'm about to crash :lol:

Models will change in the long range, but unfortunately the NE Islands seem to be looking at a strong system.
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#45 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:29 am

The UKMO is not that different for the first 96hrs just the UKMO starts this system out at around 12-13N in 24hrs time and drags it WNW...if it started down at 11N for example we'd see a NE Caribbean brush at least.

We do have near total model agreement for Colin now though...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re:

#46 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:30 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Wow! what a difference 24 hours can make!!


Yeah sure does, the ECM is amazing, man that is a Rita reduex that is on that run!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11153
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#47 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:31 am

BTW, the CANADIAN is not a fish..the long range pushes it back west under a ridge

Image
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4198
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#48 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:36 am

ooh man its going to be a very fun and exciting august-october!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TwisterFanatic
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma

#49 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:38 am

The CMC is much stronger from last run also.... I think
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#50 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:39 am

Probably would be a close sahve Ivanhater but there should be just enough of a weakness there to sweep it north before any risk of landfall...

Man this is going to be a long 2 weeks coming up I feel, still nice to see the first signs of the MJO weakening from phase 3/4 is resulting with a possible developing storm.

Also shows how quickly the models can flip around, even the Euro is prone quite often to such flips...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
weatherguy2
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:45 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#51 Postby weatherguy2 » Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:48 am

Wow 950mb on ECMWF at 240 hours at about 260 miles SSE of The Big Easy. That would be at least the typical pressure a major hurricane (Cat. 3) if true:
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#52 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 01, 2010 3:08 am

Yeah, the ECM is now getting good enough resolution to see some pretty impressive pressures, but even still the true pressure would still be somewhat lower, probably 930-940 type range I'd imagine....

Lets see if the 12z run develops this time round knowing we have finally one solid Vort!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11153
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#53 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 01, 2010 3:27 am

That's just one sick run

Image

And no ridge at all in the Gulf....a long week for sure

Image
0 likes   
Michael
Top
Meridionaljet
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 1
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:09 pm

#54 Postby Meridionaljet » Sun Aug 01, 2010 3:33 am

Raw data from the European model shows a 113 knot Hurricane south of Louisiana at 240 hours time.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chzzdekr81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 189
Joined: Sun Aug 30, 2009 7:54 pm
Location: Orange, Texas (SETX)
Contact:
Contact chzzdekr81

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#55 Postby chzzdekr81 » Sun Aug 01, 2010 3:38 am


:crazyeyes:
0 likes   
I survived Rita, Humberto, Edouard, and Ike.
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - MODELS

#56 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 01, 2010 4:39 am

6Z GFS rolling in...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#57 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 01, 2010 4:49 am

GFS 6Z 30 hours


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#58 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 01, 2010 5:20 am

6z GFS 96 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#59 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 01, 2010 5:24 am

GFS 6Z H+120

Passing about 50-100 miles North of san Juan.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#60 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 01, 2010 5:34 am

6Z GFS landfall in southern FL just north of 00z Euro..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests