Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Wow, can you post that info when I'm in the eye of the next hurricane??

What information you want?

[cycloneye]

Caribbean folks wake up. We have a definite threat looming with 91L.Lets start preparations as it seems some of the islands may get a hit with whatever intensity system comes.

[OURAGAN]

will it miss my island of guadeloupe?

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST SUN AUG 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT STRETCHES FROM LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE HEART OF HISPANIOLA. THE
LOW REMAINS IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN
MIGRATES WEST. IT IT REPLACED BY ANOTHER TUTT LOW NEXT WEEKEND
NEAR 20 NORTH 50 WEST. THIS LOW THEN RETURNS TO THE ORIGINAL
LOCATION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...A MID LATITUDE TROUGH NEAR 70 WEST INTERRUPTS A
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO
FLORIDA. THE TROUGH MOVES VERY LITTLE DURING THE WEEK...BUT
TROUGHING IN THE MID TROPICAL ATLANTIC MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY ON THE FOLLOWING
WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
ITS CENTER NEAR 45 NORTH 32 WEST WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
TO HISPANIOLA AND FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 56 WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE ON FRIDAY FROM 35 WEST. THERE EXISTS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LATTER WAVE WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES PAST THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SOUNDER REGISTERED A PUFF OF MOISTURE THAT IS
PASSING THE ISLAND AT THE MOMENT AND WAS REFLECTED IN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS IN THE MODELS ON THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND IN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS SHOULD PASS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO 1.5 INCHES OR LESS DURING THE DAY.
ACTIVITY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHOULD BE THE RESULT...AND THIS WILL
AGAIN AFFECT WESTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR THE COAST AND MAY SPREAD A
LITTLE MORE SOUTH TODAY AS WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT THAN YESTERDAY. KEPT THE 40 PERCENT POP THERE
AS MODELS DO SHOW DRIER AIR RETURNING BETWEEN 01/18Z TO 02/00Z. A
WEAK WAVE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING BETTER
MOISTURE TO THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY THE AXIS OF THE TUTT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA.

AT 01/00Z THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUN BROUGHT THE AXIS OF THE
NEXT WAVE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 05/23Z AND
06/06Z WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS
THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND IS
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS THAN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS IT AT 21.3
DEGREES NORTH AT 06/12Z NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER IS GIVING THIS SYSTEM A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS OF 2 AM THIS MORNING. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO SAY THAT IT WILL OR WILL NOT DEVELOP AND WHERE IT WILL TRACK
ONCE IT HAS DEVELOPED IF IT DOES SO...BUT EITHER WAY...SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL FALL IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD BRING THEIR
SEASONAL PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANES TO COMPLETION SOON. RAINS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST THROUGH
LATE MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. THIS SHRA AND TRW ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJMZ AND VICINITY BETWEEN 01/17-21Z.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A WAVE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY REFLECTS PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR DEPRESSION JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ATLANTIC AMZ710 WATERS
WITH SOME WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS THERE BEGINNING ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PEAKING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE ZONE. THIS IS ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE WAVE. CONDITIONS MAY BE BETTER OR
WORSE IN ALL LOCAL WATERS SHOULD THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE BE
DIFFERENT FROM THE EXPECTATIONS OF A TROPICAL STORM PASSING JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

[cycloneye]

will it miss my island of guadeloupe?

Is early to say about the exact future track but it looks like the NE Caribbean may see this system. I am rooting for it to pass by to our NE.

[OURAGAN]

Good morning and thank you Cycloneye

[cycloneye]

Good morning Barbara. For the past couple of weeks the web cams from ST Maarten have not worked. I like a lot the one that looks towards the cruise ships.The cams play a vital part as the peak of the season is here and we can see what may be going on.

[Patti]

Morning everyone! This is certianly an interesting morning with 91L out there to watch. I will be keeping a very close eye on it as I am sure we all will be. Cycloneye i just tried the Great Bay webcam and it seems to work - try this link http://thevillasongreatbay.com/index.php?id=8

[cycloneye]

Thank you Patti. The cam is posted at the long first post of the thread.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

[msbee]

Tropical Weather Discussion, Sunday August 1, 2010 at 820 am EDT/720 am CDT from CROWNWEATHER

For Information On Invest 91-L with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325.

Discussion
Invest 91-L In The Central And Eastern Atlantic:
I am closely monitoring an area of organizing disturbed weather that is located near 9 North Latitude, 37 West Longitude. This system has been designated Invest 91L and bottom line is that it needs to be watched very, very closely over the coming days. What has occurred over the past 48 to 72 hours is that at the beginning there were two tropical waves that emerged off of the coast of Africa that were close in distance to each other. The westernmost tropical wave, initially designated Invest 90L weakened and the tropical wave just to its east became the dominant circulation and thus has been designated Invest 91L.

All indications are that this system is likely to strengthen this week, however, the rate it strengthens today through Monday may be kind of slow. The reason for this is because Invest 91L has to fully remove itself from the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone; once this occurs, then I think you will see the rate of strengthening increase. With that said, satellite imagery early this morning seems to indicate that a low level circulation may be forming and deep convection is firing near this center.

There appears to be no factors that will impede development this week and the model guidance confirms that environmental conditions will be very favorable for development and intensification this week. The European, GFS, UKMET, Canadian, NOGAPS, SHIPS and LGEM models all forecast intensification for at least the next week and beyond. It is very hard to ignore this type of model agreement. Most concerning to me is that the European model is forecasting a very favorable environment for this system as it forecasts a upper level high pressure system to spread westward across the central and western Atlantic. Based on this, it seems likely that this system will likely be a tropical depression or a tropical storm by Tuesday, if not earlier. After that, it seems likely that this will be a significant hurricane by the end of this week into next weekend. While it is possible that the overall environment could change to prevent strengthening, this type of model consensus for a significant hurricane needs to be taken seriously.

As for a possible track for the future Colin, the model consensus seems to point towards a track very near or over the Leeward Islands on Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The European model forecasts a landfall over the Leeward Islands on Thursday morning and then right over Puerto Rico on Thursday night. This type of track seems very realistic and needs to be taken seriously. There are no weather features to significantly change the overall weather pattern this week as a ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic is forecast to build westward towards the eastern United States. I do recognize that the UKMET and Canadian models forecast a track well north of the islands of the northeast Caribbean, however, this solution looks to be wrong and I'll explain why in the next paragraph.

Teleconnections between what is going on here in the Atlantic Basin and what is going on in the upper levels over Asia lead me to believe that this system will not curve out into the open Atlantic or even ride up the US East Coast. Currently, a strong ridge of high pressure extends from southern Japan southwestward into southeast Asia. This type of pattern should translate into the Atlantic Basin by next weekend and I expect a strong ridge of high pressure to extend from the coast of North Carolina southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. This says to me any approaching storm will not curve up the East Coast, but instead take a track very similar to Bonnie and this is not good news at all!! The European model forecast of a hurricane tracking across the Bahamas on Saturday into Sunday and then across the Florida Straits and Florida Keys Sunday night into Monday morning and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday seems a viable possibility. What is very concerning and downright scary is that the European model has been consistent in the overall forecasted pattern for the next week to 10 days and up until now it has been missing the tropical cyclone; now that it is modeling the tropical cyclone, it seems to support the idea of very favorable environmental conditions and a track that is quite concerning.

So, with all of this said, folks in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should closely monitor the progress of this system. It seems possible that weather conditions will go downhill across the Leeward Islands during Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening with tropical storm and possibly hurricane conditions later Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, weather conditions are currently forecast to go downhill on Thursday afternoon with tropical storm and possibly hurricane conditions during Thursday night.

After Thursday, the forecast track and intensity of future Colin becomes more unclear, however, if the model guidance forecasts of very favorable environmental conditions verify, then we may be looking at a very significant hurricane as it approaches the Turks and Caicos islands later Friday. As I have already mentioned, I think a track westward across the Bahamas, Florida Straits or Florida Keys and then into the Gulf of Mexico seems more likely during next weekend. With that said, the most pressing and immediate concern is for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Needless to say, I will be monitoring things very closely and will keep you all updated.

Today would be a very good day to go over your hurricane preparedness kit and if you need supplies and can afford it, go to your local supermarket, your local Target, Wal-Mart or Lowe's and purchase what you need. If you are looking for lists of what should be in your hurricane preparedness kit, go to http://www.onestorm.org. This is a really good reference website and I highly recommend it!!

Finally, I have put in an order to have our bandwidth ramped up starting on Tuesday to prevent the website from going down when you need it most!! Any support you can give to assist us in these costs would be greatly appreciated. Go to http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=22 for more information.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Monday morning.

[msbee]

Good morning Barbara. For the past couple of weeks the web cams from ST Maarten have not worked. I like a lot the one that looks towards the cruise ships.The cams play a vital part as the peak of the season is here and we can see what may be going on.

good morning Luis
Yes, I saw the cams were not working. The one towards the cruise ships is working now though.
http://www.thevillasongreatbay.com/index.php?id=8
I think they were updating their web site.

There also is this web site which shows that cam and various other cams from the Caribbean too.
http://www.kroooz-cams.com/ports/st_maarten.php

Looks like this may be a busy week for us.
91-L is a definite threat.
Stay alert everyone

[caribepr]

Thanks, msbee for posting the above. I can almost see boats being moved now...

[knotimpaired]

I emailed MJ a bit earlier and congratulated her for being up north for another month and not having top deal with 91L.

But then I thought about the uncertainty of how it must feel and decided that she may be happier being here, knowing her home and friends are ok.

It is a double edge sword.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1029 AM AST SUN AUG 1 2010

.UPDATE...WHILE PW CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD THIS MORNING...12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY AND
THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE EAST NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT EXACTLY FAVORABLE FOR A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY...EXPECT SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TO INDUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...SIMILAR IN COVERAGE TO YESTERDAY...BUT LIKELY A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH. INTERESTING FEATURE REMAINS THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
35 WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH AS OF 8 AM AST...WAS GIVEN A 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK PROVIDED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES
TODAY...WITH A VCTS OR TSRA POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ...RESULTING IN
TEMPO MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 01/17Z AND 0121Z.

[knotimpaired]

Something to keep in mind my friends.

In Puerto Rico we have a Dengue problem.

Please keep that in mind while you are out purchasing hurricane supplies.

[cycloneye]

80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING.
IF THIS CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES ON
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BE INITIATED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT
LAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Discussion, Sunday August 1, 2010 at 820 am EDT/720 am CDT from CROWNWEATHER

For Information On Invest 91-L with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325.

Discussion
Invest 91-L In The Central And Eastern Atlantic:
I am closely monitoring an area of organizing disturbed weather that is located near 9 North Latitude, 37 West Longitude. This system has been designated Invest 91L and bottom line is that it needs to be watched very, very closely over the coming days. What has occurred over the past 48 to 72 hours is that at the beginning there were two tropical waves that emerged off of the coast of Africa that were close in distance to each other. The westernmost tropical wave, initially designated Invest 90L weakened and the tropical wave just to its east became the dominant circulation and thus has been designated Invest 91L.

All indications are that this system is likely to strengthen this week, however, the rate it strengthens today through Monday may be kind of slow. The reason for this is because Invest 91L has to fully remove itself from the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone; once this occurs, then I think you will see the rate of strengthening increase. With that said, satellite imagery early this morning seems to indicate that a low level circulation may be forming and deep convection is firing near this center.

There appears to be no factors that will impede development this week and the model guidance confirms that environmental conditions will be very favorable for development and intensification this week. The European, GFS, UKMET, Canadian, NOGAPS, SHIPS and LGEM models all forecast intensification for at least the next week and beyond. It is very hard to ignore this type of model agreement. Most concerning to me is that the European model is forecasting a very favorable environment for this system as it forecasts a upper level high pressure system to spread westward across the central and western Atlantic. Based on this, it seems likely that this system will likely be a tropical depression or a tropical storm by Tuesday, if not earlier. After that, it seems likely that this will be a significant hurricane by the end of this week into next weekend. While it is possible that the overall environment could change to prevent strengthening, this type of model consensus for a significant hurricane needs to be taken seriously.

As for a possible track for the future Colin, the model consensus seems to point towards a track very near or over the Leeward Islands on Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The European model forecasts a landfall over the Leeward Islands on Thursday morning and then right over Puerto Rico on Thursday night. This type of track seems very realistic and needs to be taken seriously. There are no weather features to significantly change the overall weather pattern this week as a ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic is forecast to build westward towards the eastern United States. I do recognize that the UKMET and Canadian models forecast a track well north of the islands of the northeast Caribbean, however, this solution looks to be wrong and I'll explain why in the next paragraph.

Teleconnections between what is going on here in the Atlantic Basin and what is going on in the upper levels over Asia lead me to believe that this system will not curve out into the open Atlantic or even ride up the US East Coast. Currently, a strong ridge of high pressure extends from southern Japan southwestward into southeast Asia. This type of pattern should translate into the Atlantic Basin by next weekend and I expect a strong ridge of high pressure to extend from the coast of North Carolina southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. This says to me any approaching storm will not curve up the East Coast, but instead take a track very similar to Bonnie and this is not good news at all!! The European model forecast of a hurricane tracking across the Bahamas on Saturday into Sunday and then across the Florida Straits and Florida Keys Sunday night into Monday morning and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday seems a viable possibility. What is very concerning and downright scary is that the European model has been consistent in the overall forecasted pattern for the next week to 10 days and up until now it has been missing the tropical cyclone; now that it is modeling the tropical cyclone, it seems to support the idea of very favorable environmental conditions and a track that is quite concerning.

So, with all of this said, folks in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should closely monitor the progress of this system. It seems possible that weather conditions will go downhill across the Leeward Islands during Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening with tropical storm and possibly hurricane conditions later Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, weather conditions are currently forecast to go downhill on Thursday afternoon with tropical storm and possibly hurricane conditions during Thursday night.

After Thursday, the forecast track and intensity of future Colin becomes more unclear, however, if the model guidance forecasts of very favorable environmental conditions verify, then we may be looking at a very significant hurricane as it approaches the Turks and Caicos islands later Friday. As I have already mentioned, I think a track westward across the Bahamas, Florida Straits or Florida Keys and then into the Gulf of Mexico seems more likely during next weekend. With that said, the most pressing and immediate concern is for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Needless to say, I will be monitoring things very closely and will keep you all updated.

Today would be a very good day to go over your hurricane preparedness kit and if you need supplies and can afford it, go to your local supermarket, your local Target, Wal-Mart or Lowe's and purchase what you need. If you are looking for lists of what should be in your hurricane preparedness kit, go to http://www.onestorm.org. This is a really good reference website and I highly recommend it!!

Finally, I have put in an order to have our bandwidth ramped up starting on Tuesday to prevent the website from going down when you need it most!! Any support you can give to assist us in these costs would be greatly appreciated. Go to http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=22 for more information.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Monday morning.

Looks like we should pay close attention to 91L, especially the more Northerly islands in the archipelago.
(Incidentally, each instance of “concerning” in the quoted text should be replaced with “disconcerting.” For some reason, nowadays even seasoned journalist are regularly making this error. What’s up with that?)

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 PM AST SUN AUG 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TUE. LARGE LOW PRES AREA MIDWAY BETWEEN
AFRICAN AND THE ANTILLES WILL LIKELY BECOME THE FOURTH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OF THE 2010 ATLC HURRICANE SEASON AND MAY IMPACT THE
ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE DELAYED SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA UNTIL TUE WHEN TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR 55W
IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
TOMORROW AS MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR MASS PERSISTING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY WET TUE AS WAVE ENCOUNTERS VERY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT LATE TUE NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES OVR CNTRL ATLC
LIKELY TO BECOME TD#4 WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS.

FCST BETWEEN THU-SAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
WHAT IS LIKELY TO BECOME TD#4 IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. MODELS
SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK JUST NORTHEAST OR OVER THE
ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...LARGE SPREAD SEEN
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF POSSIBLE EFFECTS WITH THE FASTER 12Z
ECMWF BRINGING ASSOCIATED WEATHER AS EARLY AS THU VS. THE SLOWER
GFS/BAM MODELS (THU NIGHT). UNTIL SYSTEM DEVELOPS A CLOSED SFC
CIRCULATION AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM CAN BE TRACKED MORE PRECISELY
ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST. EVEN WITH
THE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FCSTS...USERS ARE REMINDED THAT
AVG TRACK FORECASTS FOUR TO FIVE DAYS OUT ARE IN THE ORDER OF 220
TO 285 NAUTICAL MILES. SO NOTHING IS IN STONE YET. PLEASE REFER TO
PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ THROUGH
01/22Z IN A PASSING SHRA OR TSRA...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES
MONDAY...WITH INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN GUSTY LLVL
E WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT THROUGH THU...THEN INCREASING
RAPIDLY TO 6-8 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...2010 CONTINUES ON TRACK TO BE THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD
IN SAN JUAN. THROUGH THE END OF JULY...THE 48.96 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THAT HAD ACCUMULATED AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IN SAN JUAN WAS MORE THAN 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUE FOR THE
DATE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED SO FAR
IN 2010...SEE THE LATEST NEWS HEADLINE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[knotimpaired]

I saw something this morning.

That was the storms that all of you have been in.

I will post this as a signature but I think you sould know I am not a wannable.

If there is a question as far as paragraphs, I m sorry

Agnes, in West Chester in 1973

Hugo in 1979 in Isle of Palms in South Caroilina, my brother's.

Andrew in Marothon Florida but back to our house in Palm Beach

Bertha, At Green Turtle but traveled to Marsh Harbour. This was the day I called home to say we could not sail back only to hear my mother had terminal brain cancer.

Georges in Key West in 1998.

Floyd in 99 at Isle of Palms is South Carolinia

Irene at my parents in Boca

Isabel. We bought a home on the Chesapeake Bay only to be forced out.

Jeanne, a storm but she gave us 33" here in Vieques.

Dean fell short of PR but we watched from PR.

Ernesto- It sank my sailboat, the "Knotimpaired" just south of the Ocean Cty bridge