ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[OuterBanker]

Fl and Gomers are welcome to it (just kidding). Been best year ever for alot of us on the OBX. Don't need a scare to ruin year. At least models are going away from a Carolionas strike. In reality we need this to be a fish. Euro has been the most consistant and accurate this year so far. Let's hope they are wrong this time (Gomers have had enough trouble as it is).

[lonelymike]

I love the Euro but even at 10 days out it has to be taken with a grain of salt. GOM impact...maybe too far out to tell. System is probably headed for the Bahamas so plenty of time for US folks to watch. Hopefully the NE Islands are spared a hit.

[jlauderdal]

I love the Euro but even at 10 days out it has to be taken with a grain of salt. GOM impact...maybe too far out to tell. System is probably headed for the Bahamas so plenty of time for US folks to watch. Hopefully the NE Islands are spared a hit.

Northern islands, SE bahamas looks like a really good bet, does it head 270-275 after that or more like 290, that will be big

[jinftl]

06z model tracks for 91L...possible recurve candidate? or will a ridge turn it back to the west?

[TheShrimper]

Agree Jim. Nothing better than to be pointed at this far out with the uncertianty that exists. The typical waitng game from here on in, but definately a positive side with the present speculation.

[wzrgirl1]

Wow look at that general concensus with the model tracks. That's scary how close in agreement they are this far out.

[Blown Away]

06z model tracks for 91L...possible recurve candidate? or will a ridge turn it back to the west?

I'm not concerned yet, but 91L has me on alert. Being at such a low latitude the weakness that will pull 91L generally NW as it approaches the islands won't be there long enough for 91L to gain enough latitude to be in a position to recurve. I think the models show this weakness that draws 91L NW and then it is replaced by a high just as 91L reaches the area of PR, and for points W of PR that's not a place for a system to get stuck under a building high. That's when 91L begins back on a WNW track towards the Bahamas and SE CONUS. Actually pretty classic track, many CONUS storms have followed a track similar to 91L's models. I think we may have our first real player for 2010.

[ronjon]

Pretty good model agreement between the 06Z GFS and 00Z Euro with a first LF in the S FL or the Keys and into the GOM. At the mid-levels, the ECM maintains strong riding over the southern half of the US through 240 hours while the GFS shows it breaking down once the system reaches the GOM. Stay tuned. Will be a wild ride the next 10 days. A major hurricane seems likely to brush the NE LA, move through the Bahamas, near S FL, and then somewhere in the GOM.

[jinftl]

Frances (first classified as a t.d. at 11.2N 36.0W) and Ivan (first classified as a t.d. at 9.7N 29.1W) from 2004 are two recent storms that had similar points of origin. Interesting that 2004 was identified as a possible analog year to 2010 by some forecasters.

06z model tracks for 91L...possible recurve candidate? or will a ridge turn it back to the west?

I'm not concerned yet, but 91L has me on alert. Being at such a low latitude the weakness that will pull 91L generally NW as it approaches the islands won't be there long enough for 91L to gain enough latitude to be in a position to recurve. I think the models show this weakness that draws 91L NW and then it is replaced by a high just as 91L reaches the area of PR, and for points W of PR that's not a place for a system to get stuck under a building high. That's when 91L begins back on a WNW track towards the Bahamas and SE CONUS. Actually pretty classic track, many CONUS storms have followed a track similar to 91L's models. I think we may have our first real player for 2010.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 011247
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1247 UTC SUN AUG 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100801 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100801  1200   100802  0000   100802  1200   100803  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.1N  35.4W    9.7N  36.9W   10.3N  39.0W   11.1N  41.8W
BAMD     9.1N  35.4W    9.7N  37.2W   10.4N  39.3W   11.4N  41.7W
BAMM     9.1N  35.4W    9.7N  37.4W   10.4N  39.8W   11.3N  42.6W
LBAR     9.1N  35.4W    9.5N  37.3W   10.0N  39.9W   10.9N  43.1W
SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          44KTS          55KTS
DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          44KTS          55KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100803  1200   100804  1200   100805  1200   100806  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.0N  44.8W   14.4N  51.6W   17.3N  58.5W   20.1N  64.4W
BAMD    12.6N  44.3W   15.1N  49.3W   16.7N  53.7W   17.8N  56.8W
BAMM    12.5N  45.7W   15.6N  52.3W   18.9N  58.2W   21.8N  62.1W
LBAR    11.6N  46.8W   13.1N  53.6W   14.4N  58.1W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        67KTS          79KTS          80KTS          72KTS
DSHP        67KTS          79KTS          80KTS          72KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.1N LONCUR =  35.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =   8.9N LONM12 =  34.6W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =   8.7N LONM24 =  33.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[MandiAltman]

G'morning! So...who said last night that this wasn't going to be invested until Monday?
Thanks for posting the models!! I'm a little nervous about this one.

[gatorcane]

00Z UKMET, stronger:

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can i have a link to the ECM and UKMET runs?

Thanks.

[jinftl]

Be interesting to watch the trend of the models over time...if these tracks verify, what happens northeast of puerto rico will be key...does the system turn west towards the bahamas/florida...or does it move up the east coast of the u.s....or does it turn harmlessly out to sea?

[gatorcane]

UKMET:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ukmet.html

ECMWF:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8101312!!/

[gatorcane]

Be interesting to watch the trend of the models over time...if these tracks verify, what happens northeast of puerto rico will be key...does the system turn west towards the bahamas/florida...or does it move up the east coast of the u.s....or does it turn harmlessly out to sea?

It will be but both the GFS and ECMWF are consistent in turning it west for the last several runs in a row. Those two models really aren't that "all over the place" as some think on this one. Have to lean on it bending west unless one of those models starts to diverge.

In fact the ECMWF is even about the same on how fast it expects future Colin to move over the next 10 days. I'm hoping both models are wrong.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Thanks.

[jinftl]

Can we hope for the unfavorable atmospheric conditions that Bonnie encountered if such a path does materialize? As we learned with Bonnie, not every system that moves over the Gulf Stream and Loop Current has to bomb out into an Andrew or Katrina.

Be interesting to watch the trend of the models over time...if these tracks verify, what happens northeast of puerto rico will be key...does the system turn west towards the bahamas/florida...or does it move up the east coast of the u.s....or does it turn harmlessly out to sea?

It will be but both the GFS and ECMWF are consistent in turning it west for the last several runs in a row. Those two models really aren't that "all over the place" as some think on this one. Have to lean on it bending west unless one of those models starts to diverge.

In fact the ECMWF moves future Colin a bit quicker and has it into Southern FL at 192 hours -- Bonnie-like track.

[gatorcane]

Jinftl, here is the upper-level environment as shown by the GFS at 7 days if Colin were to be in the Bahamas. Looks like a strong upper-high and no upper-lows. Of course this is still a week out and things can change:

[jinftl]

hmmm...gets my attention for sure

Jinftl, here is the upper-level environment as shown by the GFS at 7 days if Colin were to be in the Bahamas. Looks like a strong upper-high and no upper-lows. Of course this is still a week out and things can change: