ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[ROCK]

I don't believe in all of this talk about a TUTT from hell in the western Atlantic because I don't believe in shear/upper-level forecasts that are 5+ days out.

Just my two cents...

so you are going against all model guidance? 5 days out is in the short term and odds of it verifying are higher than say 10 days....

[dixiebreeze]

TAFB weighs in: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[dixiebreeze]

It's already at 1007 mb, so I expect this TAFB 72-hour forecast to be much lower: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[TeamPlayersBlue]

generally, these storms "run" along the 1016MB height correct? Wondering if i should give my Uncle in So. Fla a heads up....

[ConvergenceZone]

If you want this to go north of the islands and encounter the TULL / Shear, we better hope that it starts developing right away. Otherwise(as we've seen time and time again), it's going to maintain it's west movement and head right into the carib where the conditions will be much better(as Jeff Masters pointed out).

If it develops quickly over the next day or two, then North of the islands seem much more likely...

[cycloneye]

CZ,is all about timing, if it reaches a narrow tutt line north of the Leewards or not depending on the speed and strengh.

[Vortmax1]

[KWT]

The models do hint at shear BUT I've saids many times before, the models are total rubbish at these features...like real poor!

That said I think there will be a shear zone BUT this one ends up further south and possibly a little slower then the models expect...if that happens I wouldn't depend on the shear doing anymore then maybe prevent strengthening from occuring. Its after the NE Caribbean region my worry levels build, there is a HECK of alot of uncertainty with the track, synoptically I can see strong arguements for everything from a NE risk all the way down to even Mexico!!

The models (even at times the ECM in other basins!) has been too far east with thier tracks on TCs with storms this season in general, I think thats a trend that needs to be watched.

[MGC]

Some twisting on visable sat today....might be on its way to forming. Don't see much shear for a few days and the sst are quite warm...MGC

[Aric Dunn]

The models do hint at shear BUT I've saids many times before, the models are total rubbish at these features...like real poor!

That said I think there will be a shear zone BUT this one ends up further south and possibly a little slower then the models expect...if that happens I wouldn't depend on the shear doing anymore then maybe prevent strengthening from occuring. Its after the NE Caribbean region my worry levels build, there is a HECK of alot of uncertainty with the track, synoptically I can see strong arguements for everything from a NE risk all the way down to even Mexico!!

The models (even at times the ECM in other basins!) has been too far east with thier tracks on TCs with storms this season in general, I think thats a trend that needs to be watched.

yeah all this TUTT talk is very touchy since models dont do well when a tutt already exists let alone when the feature is not there.. there are too many factors to take into account at this early stage that the models are still essentially pointless .... so beyond a general motion for the next 3 days dont even look at the extended except for fun.. lol

[cycloneye]

Lets do a very quick sample on the % for the 2 PM TWO.

I say remains at 60%.

[Vortmax1]

Stays at 60%.

[ColinDelia]

Lets do a very quick sample on the % for the 2 PM TWO.

I say remains at 60%.

Ditto that. My thoughts too

[Ivanhater]

Probably 60, with some strong wording...

[KWT]

HWRF looks way north of some of the global models, though the CMC looks like a fish as well...

This shows just how uncertain the situation is going to be with this one, if the upper ridge isn't as strong as the models prog, it'll have a good shot at being a fishy, but personally I strongly favour the solution of the upper trough only being strong enough to lift it right towards the states...and for now I'll expect that solution to be the one that comes off.

I fear this maybe a forecasters nightmare in 3-4 days time...

[Aric Dunn]

Some twisting on visable sat today....might be on its way to forming. Don't see much shear for a few days and the sst are quite warm...MGC

its very near a TD ... tomorrow morning we should have a TD... although there is likely a closed wind field... for continuity an upgrade wont occur till it has maintained its organization for 24hours unless it looks extremely well

[Aric Dunn]

they will probably make it 70 or 80

[Hurricane Andrew]

I am going to say up to 70, with a 'TD at any time" Statement.

[Ivanhater]

HWRF looks way north of some of the global models, though the CMC looks like a fish as well...

This shows just how uncertain the situation is going to be with this one, if the upper ridge isn't as strong as the models prog, it'll have a good shot at being a fishy, but personally I strongly favour the solution of the upper trough only being strong enough to lift it right towards the states...and for now I'll expect that solution to be the one that comes off.

I fear this maybe a forecasters nightmare in 3-4 days time...

Watch the loop in the Model thread KWT...Canadian has a high building over the North East will will probably shove it back west..it will not be recurving on that run...

[Sanibel]

Low level clouds starting to entrain towards center.