ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like the same general idea as in previous runs of the GFS, the only difference being that the storm manages to get slightly further north before being shoved back west.

[Recurve]

With an expanding/contracting strengthening/weakening high, let's hope not to see a return of crazy Betsy.



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[KWT]

I think the GFS shows how tight the set-up could end up being, this is going to be a seriously close call...

Worth noting the 12z GFS tends to be the one that digs the deepest troughs in the winter, and often they are overdone...

I think however I personally think the threat to the E.coast and the Florida/Gulf solution is about equal based on the models.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian further west...looks similar to the GFS

[jaxfladude]

Now you know why Hurricane Landfalls in Northern Florida/Southern Georgia are rare.

Dora's son?
Still a long ways away of now.

[Ivanhater]

HWRF back and running

[JTD]

That would be a strange track and a nightmare to forecast.

Echos of Floyd all over this one. Given it's August though and not September, I tend to lean more towards a Frances/Jeanne scenario than a threat up the east coast, right now at least, especially since the 18Z GFS will show an entirely different solution.

A Northern FLA hit would be an extremely rare event and come to think of it now, Floyd was supposed to hit NFLA for a while as well.

[StormClouds63]

Just my opinion ... not an official forecast.

Nothing can be ruled out at this point ... from a fish to a Caribbean low-rider. Landfall points will likely change with each model run. The key to where the future Colin will go will be the strength of the ridge and whether the storm is pulled north by that shortwave trough ... and if a weakness does develop in the ridge ... does the ridge quickly re-strengthen or not. A complex forecast pattern developing not only for direction, but intensity and foreward speed as well. I'll still say the Carolinas appear to be a likely target ... which probably means they'll be safe and sound

[KWT]

Yeah Frances isn't actually a bad comprasion, remember the models that wanted to recurve it at one point yet the upper high built quickly enough to prevent that from happening...

The CMC probably would recurve before land...the HWRF looks a good way too far north but then again thats probably because it thinks 91L will be at 50kts in 24hrs time from now!

[StormClouds63]

That would be a strange track and a nightmare to forecast.

Echos of Floyd all over this one. Given it's August though and not September, I tend to lean more towards a Frances/Jeanne scenario than a threat up the east coast, right now at least, especially since the 18Z GFS will show an entirely different solution.

A Northern FLA hit would be an extremely rare event and come to think of it now, Floyd was supposed to hit NFLA for a while as well.

I think a Fran (1996) or Emily (1993) track also very possible. Colin could still go fishing and save everyone a lot of grief ... but if there is a recurve, it will still be a close call for the U.S. east coast.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian very close to the NE Islands

Also notice the high building over the North East at the end of the run..Canadian will not be recurving





Loop

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

Not so sure Ivanhater, note the trailing front that is developing a small weak low (its only just there as a Vort feature) and when you get that occur, you get usually get a close but not quite solution.

That being said the high is building to the north, so may well see a East coast threat again with the CMC.

HWRF sure does look like a recurve prospect...BUT it was way way too far north with 90L orginally, so we will see.

[cycloneye]

That is a very different run from CMC as is much more west than yesterday when it was a bonifide fish.

[Ivanhater]

Extended HWRF

[Recurve]

What do you think Michael? For it to follow that it would have to develop like now and feel strong poleward pull with strong steering?

[KWT]

HWRF is a certain recurve but note it gets sheared to pieces on that track...but I feel pretty confident it won't gain nearly that much latitude, and it'll take a bit longer to strengthen as well...

We shall see but the hurricane models do seem to have a right bias don't they.

[Ivanhater]

What do you think Michael? For it to follow that it would have to develop like now and feel strong poleward pull with strong steering?

The HWRF is almost always to far north...Close to the NE Islands to the Bahamas looks good to me

[cycloneye]

Ivan what about NOGAPS and UKMET?

[Ivanhater]

Ivan what about NOGAPS and UKMET?

Nogaps is lost again and can't consolidate it..which we all know what is going on now with development

[SFLcane]

12z GFDL...