ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[SFLcane]

880
WHXX04 KWBC 011745
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.2 36.2 290./ 8.9
6 10.4 36.9 286./ 7.1
12 10.4 37.5 278./ 6.1
18 10.7 38.1 292./ 6.0
24 11.5 39.1 311./12.7
30 12.4 40.7 298./18.3
36 12.9 42.5 286./18.3
42 13.5 44.3 289./18.3
48 14.4 46.3 294./21.7
54 15.3 48.5 290./22.8
60 15.9 50.8 287./22.6
66 16.6 52.7 289./19.5
72 17.2 54.3 290./16.4
78 18.1 56.2 296./20.0
84 18.9 58.0 295./19.1
90 19.8 59.3 302./15.1
96 20.9 60.2 321./13.7
102 22.1 61.5 314./17.2
108 23.4 62.8 315./18.0
114 24.2 64.3 300./15.9
120 25.0 65.3 304./11.7
126 25.7 66.3 306./11.7

[gatorcane]

Euro is out in about an and hour in a half. Will be interesting if it trends right like the other models....or has it going through the Bahamas and Southern FL/Keys still....

As I said before, it is the king at handling long-term trough/ridging forecasts in my opinion.

[Ivanhater]

UKMET still recurving

WTNT80 EGRR 011800


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.08.2010

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+48: 15.9N 48.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.08.2010 15.9N 48.7W WEAK
00UTC 04.08.2010 17.2N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2010 18.8N 57.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2010 20.8N 61.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.08.2010 23.3N 64.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.08.2010 25.8N 65.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.08.2010 28.2N 65.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.08.2010 30.5N 65.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 07.08.2010 32.8N 65.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

[MortisFL]

Another week 1/2 or 2 weeks of speculation...gotta love it.

[SFLcane]

Way early BUT i smell something (fishie) here. Should be an interesting week or so.

[dixiebreeze]

Yeah Frances isn't actually a bad comprasion, remember the models that wanted to recurve it at one point yet the upper high built quickly enough to prevent that from happening...

The CMC probably would recurve before land...the HWRF looks a good way too far north but then again thats probably because it thinks 91L will be at 50kts in 24hrs time from now!

I remember Frances very well. She was a TS by the time she arrived in west central Florida and tore a huge oak tree out of our backyard -- by the roots!

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, SFLcane
that tends to happen quite a bit with systems developing this far out. The models start out west and gradually they begin to trend further right, until they are pulling it out to sea. One jumps on board, then the other, then the other etc......Even though it's still too early to say, fishie looks more likely than it did yesterday. Fishy or no fishy, long trackers are still fun to track.

[ConvergenceZone]

If this would just stay a wave for another 2 or 3 days, then I think a Carib path would have been much more likely and the models would have smelled it....
But now it looks like they are expecting much sooner development.

[KWT]

SFLcane, remember quite a few of the models had Alex hitting LA...indeed some even went for Florida!

CZ...yeah sometimes that happens BUT this here is a little bit of reasearch I've been doing, 70% of this storms globally have gone west of thier forecasted track...

As for the GFDL...the GFDL has this moving at 22kts at one point!
Ask yourself whether thats actually all that likely...

[gatorcane]

What do you think the ECMWF will do for the 12Z?

[brunota2003]

What do you think the ECMWF will do for the 12Z?

I think it'll set up initially like a coast rider, but a high will force it inland at the last second...just my guess

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Through 108 hours on the paid EURO site looks more westerly.

[SFLcane]

SFLcane, remember quite a few of the models had Alex hitting LA...indeed some even went for Florida!

CZ...yeah sometimes that happens BUT this here is a little bit of reasearch I've been doing, 70% of this storms globally have gone west of thier forecasted track...

As for the GFDL...the GFDL has this moving at 22kts at one point!
Ask yourself whether thats actually all that likely...

I was just throwing something out there. Things just have to align just right in order for this to approach the eastcoast.

[SFLcane]

ECM appears to be futher north on the 12z.

[KWT]

From what I can see, the models that curve out to sea are MUCH faster then the ones that don't. There is certainly a trough digging down BUT the UKMO for example really does race this system westwards between 24-48hrs.

So we shall see what occurs, the GFDL also looks very quick it seems.

[Ikester]

I'm skeptical of a deep trough this early in August.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro weaker and faster through 120 hours....North of PR

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanks KWT, I didn't know about that 70% stat that you mentioned. That is interesting.

[Ikester]

Thanks KWT, I didn't know about that 70% stat that you mentioned. That is interesting.

Well Lance Wood out of HGX (Houston) did a research study a few years back and came to the conclusion that like 77% of all gulf hurricanes miss to the east of their forecast landfall point. Keep in mind, that cyclones only stay within the cone 66% of the time. That is the statistic.

[KWT]

Yeah CZ, of course that still leaves a decent enough shot at going right of track and at this stage in the game its too early to call for sure.

SFLcane, I know what you mean, its certainly an option, but I don't like the way it moves at like 20kts between 24-48hrs, its one hell of a speed-up required.

Ikester, yeah for landfalling systems that is true, my stat was just for all global systems this year and following the models paths and the eventual track. When there is a trough digging down then the system can go right of track more often for sure.