ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Aquawind]

2 Questions?

- When a low 'closes' will there be a flare-up of convection over the center or it's perimeter?

- Is it the rotation that may cause 91L to lift out? The stronger the rotation the more north it moves?

Thanks

It's often right overhead to aid pressure pressure drop and then eye will be parimeter obviously.

The stronger and larger area it takes the more likely it will get drawn up north because of the coriolis friction and interaction with the westerlies.

[lester]

Sunset in the Central Atlantic...

looks like a cyclone to me

[cycloneye]

No more visibles so here is the infared image.

[gatorcane]

How is this not a depression already?

[hurricaneCW]

This could end up being a very large system and with the high sst's, a very strong system despite some shear. I think we are beginning to enter a non-stop tropical period. I bet that in a few days while we're tracking Colin, we'll see the next African wave organize into Danielle and so forth.

[scotto]

When a low pressure system closes off, yes, generally the convection will consolidate around the center. However, every tropical system is different and you can have a closed low with little convection and you can have no closed low with a lot of convection.

As to 91L lifting out ... that depends on the atmosphere around it and the influence of various high pressure and low pressure systems. You have to think three dimensional and realize that the more developed a system becomes, the higher in the atmosphere it is, and the more prone it then becomes to the influences of wind currents at mutiple levels.

There are much smarter people than me on here who can opine better, I'm sure.

2 Questions?

- When a low 'closes' will there be a flare-up of convection over the center or it's perimeter?

- Is it the rotation that may cause 91L to lift out? The stronger the rotation the more north it moves?

Thank you..... I think I just took a 'baby step'.

Thanks

[bvigal]

Its a tough call, I do think a Gulf strike is somewhat unlikely becuase the troughing on the east coast is forecasted to be pretty strong, the set-up aloft to me looks like the type that leads to a risk of a Florida up to say NC risk, after that the flow switches back offshore.

KWT, can you show us dummies what you mean when you say it "looks to me like"? I'm really hoping to learn something here.
Thanks!

Wxman57, can you please clarify? Is it a ULL that's he refers to? (setup aloft) Isn't it surface low pressure to the north vs high pressure ridge that causes a storm to curve more northward, i.e. east coast vs GOM? Or does it refer to weather crossing the U.S. mainland later on as the storm nears that area? What are the best tools to look at what KWT refers to as "setup aloft" to know how it will be steered in a week or so?

[Aquawind]

How is this not a depression already?

With such little factual data other than visuals they seem to take their time out this far in the Atl. They did mention Adv this afternoon possible and it certainly continues to organize.

[KWT]

Convection is weakening but there is a nice little burst going up very close to the center of this system. D-min playing its role for now, probably a TD right now but the recent weakening of the convection may just hold the NHC back given they hate to upgrade these system in this early quickly unless there is clearly evidence.

bvigal, by refering to the set-up aloft, the models show an upper trough over the NE parts of N.America, which tends to allow systems to gain latitude, but I think the upper trough won't be quite enough to recurve the system totally out to sea.

[Aquawind]

LL sure looks like a massive rotation and the deep convection is located about right on.. nice loop here..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

[ROCK]

Convection is weakening but there is a nice little burst going up very close to the center of this system. D-min playing its role for now, probably a TD right now but the recent weakening of the convection may just hold the NHC back given they hate to upgrade these system in this early quickly unless there is clearly evidence.

bvigal, by refering to the set-up aloft, the models show an upper trough over the NE parts of N.America, which tends to allow systems to gain latitude, but I think the upper trough won't be quite enough to recurve the system totally out to sea.

agreed...right now warming tops and a spot of convection left....have to wait until D-max tonight......one thing to note- yesterday at this time we had very cold tops and an explosion of convection. Now just the opposite....

[bvigal]

...bvigal, by refering to the set-up aloft, the models show an upper trough over the NE parts of N.America, which tends to allow systems to gain latitude, but I think the upper trough won't be quite enough to recurve the system totally out to sea.

Thanks for that, KWT! After all these years, upper level features are, for me, the most difficult. I can look up what they are right now, but I seem completely inept at having A CLUE what they will do, how they will move, a couple of days in the future. I, admit I don't look often at the models for that information, as they seem to be sort of unreliable when it comes to TUTT in our area.

[Nimbus]

On the southern side of the "circulation" the high clouds look like they are moving east but that could be some kind of storm relative motion illusion. They look sort of like those big soft tires on dragsters as the sidewalls load up with torque.

[srainhoutx]

Perhaps its just me, but I see two areas that could become a more dominate feature in time. Which one will it be?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[Dean4Storms]

They may hold off on TD status until 11pm EST to see if the convection increases. Right now it has a spin but the convection is not impressive at all.

[cycloneye]

Perhaps its just me, but I see two areas that could become a more dominate feature in time. Which one will it be?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I see those. Also it looks like is moving almost westward at the moment.

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

[Aquawind]

Perhaps its just me, but I see two areas that could become a more dominate feature in time. Which one will it be?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I see those. Also it looks like is moving almost westward at the moment.

Looks like the SW convection is the ITCZ interaction and there is a blob on the backside. But the deeper convection refiring in the middle is near where I think it is consolidating.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

[Rockin4NOLA]

I'm currently in the BVIs (British Virgin Islands)...what kind of weather can I expect from this system? What chances does it have to recurve before hitting my area?...any comments are much appreciated!