ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[Ivanhater]

wow i leave for church come back and the model runs are comming in showinf SWLA and texas line and that it looks to be a monster i pray that is not the fact and that it just becomes a fish or dissapears. Nearly 5 years after Katrina they have a monster heading that way as of now i know model runs changes very often expecially this far out but lord help us all if that model run shows to be on the right track.

The Euro is not showing a monster, a tropical storm at the most. It is also the western outlier at the moment.

Plenty of time for everyone to watch it. The Islanders don't have as much time ...

[KWT]

IWhilst I don't think this is a recurving storm yet, I do think the ECM looks a good deal too far south, its hard to ignore the upper trough that the models are calling for, I'd imagine with a stronger system in place then the odds of it missing land totally clearly go up. Thats quite evident in the GFDL/HWRF 12z runs...

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF definitely shows a bit more amplified trough setting up along the Eastern CONUS in the 5+ day timeframe and it hangs around for several days.

I would think if 91L were strong by then, it could also go fishing.

Trend in the models have been a deeper CONUS trough...that is the trend today. We know it could all change again though.

At this time, you have to put the bet on the recurve scenario with most models calling for that at the moment.

Why is this giving me flashbacks of what the models did with Bill last year....they kep shifting right run-after-run. Though the Euro had it right from the beginning. Calling for a fish from the get-go. This time the ECMWF is not calling for a fish.

[Countrygirl911]

wow i leave for church come back and the model runs are comming in showinf SWLA and texas line and that it looks to be a monster i pray that is not the fact and that it just becomes a fish or dissapears. Nearly 5 years after Katrina they have a monster heading that way as of now i know model runs changes very often expecially this far out but lord help us all if that model run shows to be on the right track.

The Euro is not showing a monster, a tropical storm at the most. It is also the western outlier at the moment.

Plenty of time for everyone to watch it. The Islanders don't have as much time ...

ok thank you for letting me know i have one question i am new to this but how can you tell it is a tropical storm or hurricane on the model run

[Dean4Storms]

I don't think this one goes fishing, any trough swinging down to the mid Atlantic will quickly lift out and the ridge build back in, if this was Sept. I think it would go fishing but not with what we've seen so far this year. I think the true track lies in the middle, somewhere from central Florida to South Carolina with north Florida or GA in the bullseye this time. All the models seem to agree on this trough, the Euro keeps the system to weak to gain much latitude and the CMC too deep, so I'm betting the 12z GFS is close and I believe this is the 2nd time it has shown a north Florida landfall.

[Ivanhater]

wow i leave for church come back and the model runs are comming in showinf SWLA and texas line and that it looks to be a monster i pray that is not the fact and that it just becomes a fish or dissapears. Nearly 5 years after Katrina they have a monster heading that way as of now i know model runs changes very often expecially this far out but lord help us all if that model run shows to be on the right track.

The Euro is not showing a monster, a tropical storm at the most. It is also the western outlier at the moment.

Plenty of time for everyone to watch it. The Islanders don't have as much time ...

ok than you for letting me know i have one question i am new to this but how can you tell it is a tropical storm or hurricane on the model run

It is a global model so it is not going to give you a detailed look at the fine mb deatils. Some pro mets who have access to it might though. Pretty much it is based on experience over time from past storms and the surface reflection.

That said, it is not important to get hung up on the details of intensity on the globals that far out (or exact track at 240 hours for that matter).

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think this one goes fishing, any trough swinging down to the mid Atlantic will quickly lift out and the ridge build back in, if this was Sept. I think it would go fishing but not with what we've seen so far this year. I think the true track lies in the middle, somewhere from central Florida to South Carolina with north Florida or GA in the bullseye this time. All the models seem to agree on this trough, the Euro keeps the system to weak to gain much latitude and the CMC too deep, so I'm betting the 12z GFS is close and I believe this is the 2nd time it has shown a north Florida landfall.

I agree, as weak as most of the models are keeping this, I would think it would move more west myself.....

[KWT]

At this time, you have to put the bet on the recurve scenario with most models calling for that at the moment.

Why is this giving me flashbacks of what the models did with Bill last year....they kep shifting right run-after-run. Though the Euro had it right from the beginning. Calling for a fish from the get-go. This time the ECMWF is not calling for a fish.

One thing that I'm not sure you'd know about, but the two most easterly models (the GFDL/UKMO) both are VERY fast...the UKMO for example has an average speed of 29mph between 12z tomorrow till 12z Tuesday...the GFDL does upto 22kts, so something like 24-25mph....in this particular set-up where the trough shifts it orientation by 168hrs a 5-10kts difference per hour could well mean the difference between the system being lifted out at say 65-70W and being able to carry on WNW/NW into land and maybe even drop back closer to the west if the models are overdoing the staying power of any weakness.

Whilst the strength is clearly important, the speed of its motion could well help to make things very interesting...

[weatherguy2]

A map i made comparing the 12z and 00z ECMWF:
12z 240 hours: 1006mb
00z 240 hours: 950mb

[Blown Away]

Seems many models are bringing 91L into the area of 25N/70W in about 6.5 days, I figured about 15-16 mph which I think is to quick. The weakness at that time is beginning to move out and is being replaced by a ridge building over the EC CONUS. If 91L moves faster than forecasted it will gain enough latitude to possibly recurve east of CONUS and maybe Bahamas, but if 91L moves slower it may get trapped under a building high and pushed back WNW towards Bahamas/SFL/Carolinas. IMO, the 18z models are moving 91L to fast over the 5 day period.

[redfish1]

[quote="weatherguy2"]A map i made comparing the 12z and 00z ECMWF:
12z 240 hours: 1006mb
00z 240 hours: 950mb
]

looks like that models is sticking to its guns no matter what the other models are doing

[MandiAltman]

TD by 5:00 EST? Yes, no, maybe so???

[KWT]

Seems many models are bringing 91L into the area of 25N/70W in about 6.5 days, I figured about 15-16 mph which I think is to quick. The weakness at that time is beginning to move out and is being replaced by a ridge building over the EC CONUS. If 91L moves faster than forecasted it will gain enough latitude to possibly recurve east of CONUS and maybe Bahamas, but if 91L moves slower it may get trapped under a building high and pushed back WNW towards Bahamas/SFL/Carolinas. IMO, the 18z models are moving 91L to fast over the 5 day period.

Remember though the system will enter a region of stronger steering currents soon, so 15-16mph may not be far off from the truth...besides thats slow compared to the GFDL/UKMO which both go quite some way past 20kts tomorrow night!

[hurricaneCW]

I think we should wait until the storm consolidates itself into at least a TD. Modeling a storm 6-7 days out tends to be very inaccurate. Plus, since 91L is so far south, it will be more difficult for it to just scoot on out to sea. It should be a fun 10 days though. I love these kinds of storms, you never know what's going to happen.

[Ivanhater]

A map i made comparing the 12z and 00z ECMWF:
12z 240 hours: 1006mb
00z 240 hours: 950mb
]

looks like that models is sticking to its guns no matter what the other models are doing

The Euro is having a tough time with the ridging and trough like the other models.

Here is the past 4 00Z(since the 00z run seems to be the only time the Euro really wants to develop it).









You can see the model switch from a far northerly course to a far southerly course and now is swinging back north. No fault to the EURO, the pattern is complicated...

[cycloneye]

I think we should wait until the storm consolidates itself into at least a TD. Modeling a storm 6-7 days out tends to be very inaccurate. Plus, since 91L is so far south, it will be more difficult for it to just scoot on out to sea. It should be a fun 10 days though. I love these kinds of storms, you never know what's going to happen.

It may be fun to watch but for people who live in islands that may or may not be on the path of a storm or hurricane it is not fun al all because the last minute preparations will go on full gear with the stress that it brings.

[ROCK]

I have seen LLCs out run their convection before... Of course that was in the Ecarib death zone....

[KWT]

I think we should wait until the storm consolidates itself into at least a TD. Modeling a storm 6-7 days out tends to be very inaccurate. Plus, since 91L is so far south, it will be more difficult for it to just scoot on out to sea. It should be a fun 10 days though. I love these kinds of storms, you never know what's going to happen.

Even if you just use the models, we have a range right now for day 10 which is from...well probably in the jet stream racing towards Europe...or just about to hit LA.Texas...huge difference clearly!

[KWT]

18z GFS is rolling, heading near west right now:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_036m.gif

[thetruesms]

I think we should wait until the storm consolidates itself into at least a TD. Modeling a storm 6-7 days out tends to be very inaccurate. Plus, since 91L is so far south, it will be more difficult for it to just scoot on out to sea. It should be a fun 10 days though. I love these kinds of storms, you never know what's going to happen.

I'm always of two minds when I see posts like this. On the one hand, there's no need to get worked up over a very long range track/intensity forecast because of the inherent error involved. However, it smacks of logical fallacy to completely trash all the work that's been put into these models simply because they can't nail a track and intensity of a feature whose inner workings they can only resolve poorly/not at all. It's shortsighted to say that it is all worthless, because there's still important information that can be gleaned from the mass fields even at this long range.