ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[Ivanhater]

48 hours

[Blown Away]

Already looks further north than 12z.

[KWT]

Not by much and its as much west as it is north of its previous run FWIW...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not going to even try to get into the, which state 91L hits debate, if it does at all. As far as which region, east coast vs gulf states, really think it is about 50/50. If 91L does not really speed up in the next 24-36 hrs such as some models are showing give it about 40/60 in favor of getting in the gulf. I think the models are over doing the east U.S. trof just as they did for Alex. Remember some were showing a really strong trof dropping down the eastern U.S. and sending Alex north and even northeast. Of course look what really happened. Sure one could drop down but we will be in the first half of August and just can't see it being all that strong or hanging in long enough for a recurve. Think the chances of the high being stronger and/or building back in faster are greater than the trough affecting the system. If a gun was held to my head right now I would have to say a track similar to Bonnie, Betsy, or Andrew instead of a recurve. Of course things could change just keep watching the developments in the upper levels.

[KWT]

Heading decently north of the Islands from the looks of things on this run. Hard to say what way this run is going to go to be honest!

[cheezyWXguy]

Heading decently north of the Islands from the looks of things on this run. Hard to say what way this run is going to go to be honest!

It seems hard to believe its going to gain 5 degrees of latitude in the next 36 hours, especially when its heady almost due west currently. This run already seems off to me.

[redfish1]

Heading decently north of the Islands from the looks of things on this run. Hard to say what way this run is going to go to be honest!

It seems hard to believe its going to gain 5 degrees of latitude in the next 36 hours, especially when its heady almost due west currently. This run already seems off to me.

i am glad you stated that cause i was thinking the same thing

[KWT]

We'll see, it'll gain some latitude soon if only because developing cyclones do tend to gain some latitude as they close off thier low from past experience...still we shall see, I remember with Dean most of the models were rather too keen on taking this northwards in the end.

[Dean4Storms]

Not going to even try to get into the, which state 91L hits debate, if it does at all. As far as which region, east coast vs gulf states, really think it is about 50/50. If 91L does not really speed up in the next 24-36 hrs such as some models are showing give it about 40/60 in favor of getting in the gulf. I think the models are over doing the east U.S. trof just as they did for Alex. Remember some were showing a really strong trof dropping down the eastern U.S. and sending Alex north and even northeast. Of course look what really happened. Sure one could drop down but we will be in the first half of August and just can't see it being all that strong or hanging in long enough for a recurve. Think the chances of the high being stronger and/or building back in faster are greater than the trough affecting the system. If a gun was held to my head right now I would have to say a track similar to Bonnie, Betsy, or Andrew instead of a recurve. Of course things could change just keep watching the developments in the upper levels.

Although I think a recurve is unlikely I don't think it traverses south Florida this time, it would have to remain very weak. I think it gains latitude and turns back westward somewhere in the 30N +/- a few degree's as the trough swings out and the ridge builds back, even the Euro shows this trough but keeping it weaker refrains from allowing it to gain much latitude as we saw the Euro do with Alex. There is just too much warm and open seas ahead I think for this to remain weak throughout the Atlantic journey although we could see some weakening for a period of time from the ULL but I wouldn't expect it to ride along in tandem like it did with Bonnie.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Heading decently north of the Islands from the looks of things on this run. Hard to say what way this run is going to go to be honest!

It seems hard to believe its going to gain 5 degrees of latitude in the next 36 hours, especially when its heady almost due west currently. This run already seems off to me.

No kidding.

[Dean4Storms]

Heading decently north of the Islands from the looks of things on this run. Hard to say what way this run is going to go to be honest!

It seems hard to believe its going to gain 5 degrees of latitude in the next 36 hours, especially when its heady almost due west currently. This run already seems off to me.

Hmmm, I see the LL feature moving WNW now, if it begins to deepen as we expect it surely will gain latitude.

[Ivanhater]

96 hours

[KWT]

What is interesting to note is the GFS slows the system right down at 84hrs, as it reaches the western part of the upper high and at the same time the upper trough starts to come along...

I've gotta be honest and say the 18z set-up, if the system gets that north, does look to me like a recurving set-up at say 70W roughly...but we will see what this run does.

[Ivanhater]

120..looks like a recurve run

[gatorcane]

Hasn't been a trough along the Eastern CONUS in weeks but there may be one now, just in time to deflect this thing. Amazing how that works.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like it's going to miss it too me.

[Ivanhater]

138

[gatorcane]

Surface low forming around the Carolinas at 138 hours along a cold front....that would almost definitely deflect it away from the US.....trough digging. How the GFS has totally shifted its thinking from yesterday at this time.

This whole thing is getting fishier by the minute.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can i have a link to that run? I tried last night's link that someone gave me, and it wouldn't load.

[Dean4Storms]

Putting on the brakes, not what you would expect if it is getting caught by the trough.