ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Up to 90%

AWESOME, WE HAVE CAPS AND COLOR RED

[ConvergenceZone]

If it ramps up pretty quickly i think recurve is probably inevitable.

I was just going to say the same thing. I"m actually happy that it's organizing so quickly. My fear was that it wouldn't reach TD status until Tuesday or Wednesday which would have been bad news on the overall track....Very encouraged to see it coming together so quickly....the models probably saw it coming, hence their track....

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak:

01/2345 UTC 10.0N 37.8W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Latest ASCAT pass shows that 91L's circulation is getting better defined exhibiting rather strong WNW winds. However the circulation is rather broad. If I were the NHC I would classify 91L as a tropical depression tonight, however Monday is beginning to look like a safer bet.

[KWT]

I dunno about all this rapidly developing stuff - I know its hard to tell on IR but there is some sort of turning west of the main blow up of convection near 10.5N-38.5W which would put the main convection east of the center if indeed that is the LLC. If not, then we have a MLC separated from a developing LLC, not a good sign for quick development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

I've gotta be honest and say I don't anything of the sort, what I see is something of an optical illusion with the way the convection fades, but if you focus on just one small part of the convection you'd see there isn't any bending at all and it just moves westwards before fading out. There is turning on the western part of the convection but its probably associated with the developing center closer to the deep convectionn as the Sat pass showed.

If there ever was anything there, its about to be destroyed, you don't get that sort of deep convection with a strong MLC already and not get a LLC pretty quickly digging down.

CZ, I sorta agree but its not just strength, this time round the *speed* is just as important, because if its further south and east when the upper trough digs down between 120-168hrs then its not going to feel the effects as much and as we saw with the 18z GFS, even with it close to 25N by 120hrs, the upper trough still doesn't have the strength to do the job at the first time of asking...infact it takes 3/4 seperate upper features to finally lift it out!

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 91, 2010080200, , BEST, 0, 101N, 374W, 25, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

No upgrade yet.

[Stephanie]

Up to 90%

AWESOME, WE HAVE CAPS AND COLOR RED

This really wasn't necessary...

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
WTNT21 KNGU 012300
011800 Position Near 9.8N 36.3W
Moving West Northwest at 15 knots

[chzzdekr81]

Up to 90%

AWESOME, WE HAVE CAPS AND COLOR RED

This really wasn't necessary...

Sorry.

[Recurve]

I get 11.2 knots movement from 2 pm to 8 pm best track (67 nm)

[xcool22]

MiamiHurricanes10 thanks for posting info.

[lester]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
WTNT21 KNGU 012300
011800 Position Near 9.8N 36.3W
Moving West Northwest at 15 knots

where'd you get that from? just curious..

[abajan]

This may sound a bit silly but since we’ve seen 0% chance of development mentioned in TWO's for some systems this year, I was wondering if we’ll see 100% chance at 2AM and then an upgrade to TD at 5AM.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Whoa! TAFB at 2.5!

AL, 91, 201008012345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1020N, 3720W, , 3, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, WB, I, 5, 2525 /////, , , MET8, CSC, T, DT = 2.5 BASED ON 0.4 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.0 PAT=

[KWT]

I get 11.2 knots movement from 2 pm to 8 pm best track (67 nm)

Yeah thats probably about right, the systems center though could be a little east of that estimate, Vis imagery will give a much better indication either way.

That TCFA sorta shows what is the thinking behind the movement in the next 24-36hrs I suppose.

[jaxfladude]

So a track like Hurricane Dora(1964) may still be possible? I fear one will eventually hit my area, and hit it hard.

[SFLcane]

I think bermuda may also get into the picture.

[chzzdekr81]

So a track not unlike Hurricane Dora(1964) may still be possible?

Based on the current models, it has a chance of making landfall where Dora made landfall. But anything's possible, and the models can change over the next few days.

[KWT]

Whoa! TAFB at 2.5!

AL, 91, 201008012345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1020N, 3720W, , 3, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, WB, I, 5, 2525 /////, , , MET8, CSC, T, DT = 2.5 BASED ON 0.4 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.0 PAT=

Very interesting, given thats at 2.5 even if the other estimate is lower 2.5 combined with the deep convection blowing up may well be enough...

This is how NHC see this one progressing by the way:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_ma ... 7_1200.png

Moving NW and weakening slightly, tough call to say whether it recurves or not...

ps, note the other low well to the SE....

[vbhoutex]

I dunno about all this rapidly developing stuff - I know its hard to tell on IR but there is some sort of turning west of the main blow up of convection near 10.5N-38.5W which would put the main convection east of the center if indeed that is the LLC. If not, then we have a MLC separated from a developing LLC, not a good sign for quick development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

I think I see what you are talking about, but I don't agree with your analysis of it. I don't see a rapidly developing system yet, but it is definitely working on consolidating. What I do see is a growing area of convection with an apparent LLC under the main blob. I do understand it is almost impossible to determine with IR but this is almost obvious when you watch long enough to separate the different layers of clouds. What I think you are seeing is an illusion created by the IR coloring. JMHO though because I also know you know the tropics.