ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[SouthFloridawx]

I haven't heard of the Para GFS, where can I find information on that?

From what I know, the Para GFS is a new version of the GFS, an upgrade of sorts. It replaced the old GFS within the past week. For months though, the Para GFS was being ran with the main GFS, likely for testing.

Thank you!

[Ivanhater]

The surface reflection showed an open wave on the GFS for every run so far for the first 48 hours

[SouthFloridawx]

[Ikester]

Well it can't be dust...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

No problem Mike. Still sticking with the more westward scenario until anything else proves otherwise.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Weatherfreak000]

Can we stop jumping on and off the bandwagon with every frame that comes in?

Happened right before Bonnie formed the night prior.

Honestly you can play the odds, say TD 4 in 48 Hours. (90% confidence...I think it was 80 or 60% with Bonnie) and bank it in every time. Convective waning while storms detach from the ITCZ is pretty common, you can probably expect 91L to shrink a good deal too overnight in size. The SAME thing happened the night before Bonnie...never fails

[SouthFloridawx]

Vorticity shows gradual strengthening...

[ROCK]

its not SAL...dry air maybe couple that with a nice fat TUTT to give it a hair cut...

is it me or did the 12Z EURO show something similar...

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[gatorcane]

vorticity seems more West in this run, near the leewards....

[SouthFloridawx]

vorticity seems more West in this run, near the leewards....

Was thinking more west too, but we'll see soon.

[cycloneye]

Too close for comfort for Antigua,Barbuda and ST Maarteen.

[boca]

I think the reason why they wave it more west is because they have it as an open wave.

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[Ivanhater]

Trough is a bit flatter so far on the 00z compared to the 18z at that time

[SFLcane]

84hrs...

[SouthFloridawx]