BA, actually thats about what I'm thinking right now as well, its a classic La Nina type east coast track for sure.
Ironically Bonnie from 1998 may not be a bad one to compare looking at the models at the moment!
BTW, looks like the convection is weakening now, and its looking a little ragged IMO.
ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion
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Vortmax1
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST MON AUG 2 2010
A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE HAS A STRONG CHANCE OF DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES
WEST NORTHWEST FROM NEAR 10 NORTH 38 WEST. IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS
TO THE NORTHEAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL DRAG
A TAIL OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
SATURDAY. A SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE YET TO MOVE OUT OF AFRICA AND PASS FARTHER
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE
FOR ANY CONFIDENCE.
A SECOND WAVE NEAR 38 WEST SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
HAS BEEN GIVEN A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENT MODELS NOW TAKE IT TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND...IF THE TRACKS OF THESE
MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT FROM WINDS...BUT
EXPECT COPIOUS RAINS FROM A MOISTURE LADEN ENVELOPE THAT WILL
ENTER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND A LONG TAIL THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL BANDS OF CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OF COURSE BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A TRACK THAT IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN 24 HOURS AGO. BEYOND THIS...ANOTHER
WAVE HAS BEEN FORMING CIRCULATIONS IN THE MODEL FORECAST SOLUTIONS
THAT WOULD PASS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY A SLIGHTLY WIDER MARGIN
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD AGAIN MEAN ONLY AN
INCREASE IN RAIN FOR THE LOCAL AREA. SINCE THE FIRST SYSTEM HAS
NOT YET COALESCED...THE EXACT INTENSITY AND TRACK IS NOT CERTAIN
AND LOCAL RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO WEATHER NEWS SOURCES
FOR LATER INFORMATION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST MON AUG 2 2010
A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE HAS A STRONG CHANCE OF DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES
WEST NORTHWEST FROM NEAR 10 NORTH 38 WEST. IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS
TO THE NORTHEAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL DRAG
A TAIL OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
SATURDAY. A SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE YET TO MOVE OUT OF AFRICA AND PASS FARTHER
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE
FOR ANY CONFIDENCE.
A SECOND WAVE NEAR 38 WEST SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
HAS BEEN GIVEN A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENT MODELS NOW TAKE IT TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND...IF THE TRACKS OF THESE
MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT FROM WINDS...BUT
EXPECT COPIOUS RAINS FROM A MOISTURE LADEN ENVELOPE THAT WILL
ENTER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND A LONG TAIL THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL BANDS OF CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OF COURSE BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A TRACK THAT IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN 24 HOURS AGO. BEYOND THIS...ANOTHER
WAVE HAS BEEN FORMING CIRCULATIONS IN THE MODEL FORECAST SOLUTIONS
THAT WOULD PASS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY A SLIGHTLY WIDER MARGIN
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD AGAIN MEAN ONLY AN
INCREASE IN RAIN FOR THE LOCAL AREA. SINCE THE FIRST SYSTEM HAS
NOT YET COALESCED...THE EXACT INTENSITY AND TRACK IS NOT CERTAIN
AND LOCAL RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO WEATHER NEWS SOURCES
FOR LATER INFORMATION.
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Blown Away
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Re:
Vortmax1 wrote:What do you think KWT/Vortmax1? Trough or further west?
It won't be the trough if this thing doesn't get a surface circulation and get going!
That's really all I can say right now.
Time to break out my trusty 8-Ball. LOL
Yeah, we're not far apart at all!
I'm no pro by a longshot, but those models have 91L jumping NW rate now and IMO the movement is just north of west.
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Yeah Vortmax the models are quite keen on developing a second system...
Anyway I'm not as impressed as I was last night, may even drop to 80% given its slightly more ragged look and the fact the models have backed off from quick development again somewhat.
BA, I agree, any latitude gained in the last 24hrs is just due to the formation of the circulation and the disconnecting of the ITCZ, nearly always happens.
Anyway I'm not as impressed as I was last night, may even drop to 80% given its slightly more ragged look and the fact the models have backed off from quick development again somewhat.
BA, I agree, any latitude gained in the last 24hrs is just due to the formation of the circulation and the disconnecting of the ITCZ, nearly always happens.
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It looks good on Vis for sure, but the convection has been weakening during a time which would normally be Dmax...not a trend of a strengthening system, granted it may just be one of those classic developing systems plusing up and down.
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jlauderdal
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Re:
KWT wrote:It maybe heading just a touch north of west west, or it is possible some easterly shear has kicked in...
Still it looks decent IMO right now, just waiting for them to be sure of a LLC, can't be far off now surely!
what is the position of the llC to say its going north of west?
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wxman57
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - DISCUSSION
Could be 11.5N/42 or 42.5W, west of the convection and racing west. Heading to the office now. Can get to better visible loops there.
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Wxman57, I think thats a good spot, just had a look and in the last few images of the loops it sure looks like there is turning on the western side of the convection. I'd say closer to 41.5W but I agree.
Looks like the low level flow has really picked up in a big way recently...just like the models progged to be fair!
Looks like the low level flow has really picked up in a big way recently...just like the models progged to be fair!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - DISCUSSION
The longer it takes to develop, chances increase for the Leewards to get more closer to the action so to speak.
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Well possibly Cycloneye, but the ECM barely develops it and gets north of the islands still...so we shall see.
If it keeps moving west or just a little nort hof west though the chances increases for at the very least a brush.
If it keeps moving west or just a little nort hof west though the chances increases for at the very least a brush.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The moisture envelope continues to move west ahead of 91L.
It looks like it is slowly developing but I can't see how it is going to miss the islands.
The ULL north of the islands has created a weakness but that doesn't appear to be digging and is too far west to steer yet.
Later in the track the current trough dropping down off the US east coast would have to dig and persist for several days if it is going to pick up 91L. Not saying that won't happen but it is still only August.
I'm not sure the next short wave from the continental high will dig far enough south.
It will be interesting to see how the models evolve they don't have a good storm to initialize on yet.
It looks like it is slowly developing but I can't see how it is going to miss the islands.
The ULL north of the islands has created a weakness but that doesn't appear to be digging and is too far west to steer yet.
Later in the track the current trough dropping down off the US east coast would have to dig and persist for several days if it is going to pick up 91L. Not saying that won't happen but it is still only August.
I'm not sure the next short wave from the continental high will dig far enough south.
It will be interesting to see how the models evolve they don't have a good storm to initialize on yet.
Last edited by Nimbus on Mon Aug 02, 2010 6:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Nice little inflow band appears to be setting up from the ITCZ in the last few hours as well...
Looks to me like motion is probably something close to 275 right now overall.
Looks to me like motion is probably something close to 275 right now overall.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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blazess556
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Re:
KWT wrote:Nice little inflow band appears to be setting up from the ITCZ in the last few hours as well...
Looks to me like motion is probably something close to 275 right now overall.
yeah. look almost due west. maybe a little north of that.
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wzrgirl1
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - DISCUSSION
To me it looks as if it is starting to get the classic shape. Very pretty.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - DISCUSSION
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Vortmax1
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
617 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010
THE CFS MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON ITS FORECAST OF FAVORABLE
MJO CONDITIONS ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
TROPICAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEK. THE EWP REMAINS ERRATIC AND HIGHLY
UNRELIABLE. THE CFS ALTERNATES BETWEEN HIGHLY FAVORABLE TO
SLIGHTLY NEUTRAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS...SO LOOKS LIKE
AUGUST IS GOING TO BE A VERY BUSY MONTH.
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
617 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010
THE CFS MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON ITS FORECAST OF FAVORABLE
MJO CONDITIONS ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
TROPICAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEK. THE EWP REMAINS ERRATIC AND HIGHLY
UNRELIABLE. THE CFS ALTERNATES BETWEEN HIGHLY FAVORABLE TO
SLIGHTLY NEUTRAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS...SO LOOKS LIKE
AUGUST IS GOING TO BE A VERY BUSY MONTH.
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