ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[KWT]

Ummmm.the CMC has won nothing just yet...but I do get what you mean

Actually with the broad pattern change aloft right now in the W.Atlantic, pay the CMC close heed, we are about to go into a troughy set-up and if the CMC is good at one thing, its handling troughy set-ups.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not convinced with this pattern change just yet, most of these models run off the GFS. I know the Euro swung as well, but its just one run so far.

[Agua]

Fish spinner.

[KWT]

The GFS/CMC is too close for comfort to feel any real confidence, the NHC is further east of those two and seems to be closer to the ECM/UKMO packages at the moment.

Still 12z GFS comes out soon...will see what it does this time round!

[hurricaneCW]

Fish spinner.

Could be dead before it even has a chance to become a fish.

[solomon25]

Fish spinner.

Could be dead before it even has a chance to become a fish.

lol. goodbye to you TD four

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'm not convinced with this pattern change just yet, most of these models run off the GFS. I know the Euro swung as well, but its just one run so far.

Agree with you Dean. Just hard to stomach, so to speak, that this drastic of a change will occur in the next week. Also how many times does the GFS over-play a trough showing it turning a system out to sea only for it to head much further west. So many variables up in the air. What if this opens back up to a wave aand gets caught in the low level westely flow only to get caught under the rebuilding ridge, if the ridge even weakens as much as the models show.

[Vortex]

I think one very viable option that now must be considered is the fact this system in about 60-72 hours will encounter shear from the SW on the order of 30-35kts...I would not be surprised to see the LLC become exposed and head off towards the WNW either over the northern Leewards or just to the North...

Then it gets interesting...as long as there is some reflection at the surface you have a system that gets steered w/wnw much like the EURO indicated for days and finds itself in the bahamas under much improved atmospheric conditions...If this verifies then of course FL to to the Carolinas would need to play close attention..

***After looking at all the models this does seem reasonable almost as much so as the forecasted track.

[KWT]

I'm not convinced with this pattern change just yet, most of these models run off the GFS. I know the Euro swung as well, but its just one run so far.

Agree with you Dean. Just hard to stomach, so to speak, that this drastic of a change will occur in the next week. Also how many times does the GFS over-play a trough showing it turning a system out to sea only for it to head much further west. So many variables up in the air. What if this opens back up to a wave aand gets caught in the low level westely flow only to get caught under the rebuilding ridge, if the ridge even weakens as much as the models show.

Its not just the GFS though, the ECM/UKMO which are both models that are typically on the left hand side of the model consensus is showing a pretty healthy recurve, so its not like the solution hasn't got strong merit.

Still the 12z is another run, so lets see what they do.

12z GFS is rolling out....

[Recurve]

That's the problem isn't it. We'll have to keep watching this thing until there's not a wisp of cloud left or it's north of 50 because of the Andrew scenario -- struggle, shear, struggle, evaporate, revive...get caught under ridge and explode.

[StormClouds63]

Colin takes a fishing trip, but instead meets the shear monster. Where are the favorable environmental conditions predicted for the 2010 season? ... or is this really 2006 revisited?

[KWT]

That certainly does need to be watched I feel!

12z GFS is a little weaker at this stage then it was at 12hrs out then the 06z run, already looks a little too weak...

ps, not 2006...but how about 2007...thats actually a better comprasion...2006 actually had decent conditions out to sea, as seen by Florence, Helen, Gordon and Issac.

[KWT]

The 12z GFS out to 30hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_030m.gif

[StormClouds63]

That certainly does need to be watched I feel!

12z GFS is a little weaker at this stage then it was at 12hrs out then the 06z run, already looks a little too weak...

ps, not 2006...but how about 2007...thats actually a better comprasion...2006 actually had decent conditions out to sea, as seen by Florence, Helen, Gordon and Issac.

You're right, KWT ... 2007 is the better comparison. It just doesn't look like 2010 is going to match (in numbers, at least) any of its analog years.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'm not convinced with this pattern change just yet, most of these models run off the GFS. I know the Euro swung as well, but its just one run so far.

Agree with you Dean. Just hard to stomach, so to speak, that this drastic of a change will occur in the next week. Also how many times does the GFS over-play a trough showing it turning a system out to sea only for it to head much further west. So many variables up in the air. What if this opens back up to a wave aand gets caught in the low level westely flow only to get caught under the rebuilding ridge, if the ridge even weakens as much as the models show.

Its not just the GFS though, the ECM/UKMO which are both models that are typically on the left hand side of the model consensus is showing a pretty healthy recurve, so its not like the solution hasn't got strong merit.

Still the 12z is another run, so lets see what they do.

12z GFS is rolling out....

Agree, just giving a broad example. Vortex had a good post about a similar situation panning out...
I think one very viable option that now must be considered is the fact this system in about 60-72 hours will encounter shear from the SW on the order of 30-35kts...I would not be surprised to see the LLC become exposed and head off towards the WNW either over the northern Leewards or just to the North...

Then it gets interesting...as long as there is some reflection at the surface you have a system that gets steered w/wnw much like the EURO indicated for days and finds itself in the bahamas under much improved atmospheric conditions...If this verifies then of course FL to to the Carolinas would need to play close attention..

***After looking at all the models this does seem reasonable almost as much so as the forecasted track.

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFS showing a disorganized mess out at 42 hours.

[KWT]

System strengthening at 30-42hrs and is now moving WNW probably due to the quicker strengthening...ps the Vorticity strenghtens I should say.

[rockyman]

12z GFS--very close to northern Leewards at 54 hours:

[KWT]

12z GFS at 54hrs with the Vort tracking WNW:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_054m.gif

[Weatherfreak000]

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE MODELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS ON THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND THE HWRF AND ECMWF FARTHER RIGHT
SHOWING MORE RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL TVCN CONSENSUS AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.

Quoted from first discussion, all model consensus is for recurve. We will see if things change...